Let's Talk Trading (tm) with Ken Roberts
from July 9, 2002

Return to archives page

As we begin this evening’s session, let me state the reason I conduct these monthly chats: to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and pick the brain of a successful, long-time, real-money trader. It’s not the highest and best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your TWMPMM Manual. That’s what my Course Counselors are here for... Now is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you’re learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you’re out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun along those lines, so much better. Alright... I’ve got a COHIBA Siglo IV fired up, here’s our plate of freshly baked chocolate chip cookies, the coffee’s poured, so let’s talk commodities!

drbarry asks:
I bought July 03 Cocoa 1150 (weekly 50%) puts at 18 on 6/27/03...now cocoa is at 1715 and that put is worth 12...could I have done something better or is this a good trade?
at 6:14:25 PM
I think you did exactly right, drbarry. You're expecting a 50% retracement (back down) in Cocoa and you've (inexpensively) insured that you'll be there if that happens within the next year. Good goin'!
michael asks:
Hi Ken! Hi Ken and crew! Thanks for doing this. I’ve a question: when trading options, no matter which month you buy, you make all your decisions based on a front month (50% levels, exit point, etc.) How about futures contracts? If you trade a further out month, which one do you take into consideration – front month or the one you trade? Thanks.
at 6:15:29 PM
Same as with options, michael: I take all my trading cues from the front month contract. Thanks.
wonkyMan asks:
Hey Ken! Course member since '97, started trading for real last month, took my first profits last week (in Corn)! Thanks for everything! My question is: in TWMPMM 2, you mention taking profits from your option trades when prices on the front month reach daily and weekly 50% levels. Do you do the same thing with futures contracts? Cash out half of your contracts when the daily 50% is hit, and hold the rest to see if the weekly 50% is hit? Thanks!!!
at 6:16:27 PM
Yes. That's exactly what I do. Congratulations, wonkyMan, and thanks for joining us tonight.
coffeeLover asks:
In your video example of the silver blip, (where silver futures jumped a small unexpected 25 cents and because of volatility, your deep out of the money options had huge profits) did you liquidate your pregnant-with-profits silver options or did you hold onto them (waiting for the 50% that never hit) and watch them expire worthless?
at 6:17:28 PM
I cashed in half of those I held, coffeeLover, took profits, and watched the remaining half expire worthless. That's the way I do it.
chas asks:
Do you always let your options worthless if you don't hit your 50 percent level.
at 6:17:52 PM
Yes. Sometimes it hurts, but yes I do.
yogi asks:
Hi Ken, Yogi from Abbotsford B.C. Canada, When hedging a futures contract with an option in the opposite direction, is there usually any difficulty in getting the option order filled?
at 6:18:40 PM
No, not usually, yogi, but you do want to shop awhile since many times those puts are expensive.
corncobb asks:
HI Ken!! Thanks to you Ken and all your help, I made about $10,000 this last month in corn, wheat, bean oil, and silver. Thank you so very much.
at 6:19:17 PM
Thank YOU, corncobb, but you did it . . . . Congratulations.
mary jane ryan asks:
What is your outlook for gold?
at 6:21:42 PM
Up for the long-term, but we may see a 50% retracement on the weekly chart first. What a great answer, huh? I sound like those Wall Street gurus: "Well, it could go up and it could go down . . . ."
Nicole-IOWA asks:
Ken-when you say YOU still paper trade...are you saying like you "watch" a market...or are you ACTUALLY logging it down on paper? Just curious. No real big significant reason. I am sure you K.I.S.S. it...know what that stands for don't ya?
at 6:24:06 PM
Sure I know what K.I.S.S. stands for: Ken Is a Super Star! (You must have seen my movie -- "Radical Jack"!) What I mean when I say that I still paper trade is that I watch the chart and current prices, waiting for my daily, weekly, and monthly 50% targets to get hit.
DAVE FROM OHIO asks:
KEN--WHEN UPDATING YOUR U.S. PAPER CHARTS ON THE WEEKLY TARGET, DO YOU USE A FIVE YEAR TIME SPAN WHEN UPDATING YOUR 50% WKLY POINTS? EXAMPLE: COFFEE RECENT 50% TARGET CHANGED FROM 178 TO 127. THANKS FOR ALL YOU HAVE GIVEN US.. DAVE
at 6:27:04 PM
Thank you, Dave. Not always: When highs drop off the weekly (as they have in coffee now), I'll "stand farther back" and take a look at the monthly chart. When you do this in coffee you'll see that it's target now is 17950. Good question.
restarter asks:
Andy from Scotland Some years back at one of your boardroom,in Dublin, you told us about monthly chart levels and quantiles. Do you still use these in your trading and are the histories in Rice and Euroyen long enough to use yet. Thanks for all, it is good to be back and following the course
at 6:29:12 PM
Hey! Thanks Andy. Yes I do, and although there's more history in Rice and the Euroyen now, there's still not enough to create quartiles. HOWEVER, both Rice and the Euroyen are at such extremes, it really doesn't matter. I just trade them!
Kimber asks:
In the TWMPMM Workshop tapes I remember you suggesting computing the 50% retacement on the latest significant move. Since then I have seen comments in the Monthly Newsletter that one should calculate the retracement that gives the biggest potential move, daily and weekly. Please confirm this is the best approach.
at 6:30:36 PM
Yes, I believe the better approach is to use the price points that give you the largest possible gain. Things changed since I taped those videos: The markets got even better because of the geometric growth in options trading. Good question . . . .
ML asks:
Ken, right now I’m paper trading two markets. I’m short a futures contract in Gold off a 1-2-3 top, and I’m also long a Silver contract out of a channel. It seems that both markets are basically moving in the same direction, and I’m wondering if I’ve made a mistake here. What would you’re advice be in this situation?
at 6:31:31 PM
Keep paper trading your plan. You can never make a mistake doing that!
fire2004 asks:
when it says cash settled on a chart in the FND instead of a date what does that mean and when should one exit a contract
at 6:33:50 PM
"Cash settled" means that there is no delivery to be taken (or made) for that commodity. In other words, if you're long one of these markets and hold on until First Notice Day, no one's going to dump truckloads of that commodity in your front yard! All that happens if you stay in is that an accounting entry is made in your trading account adding profits (or subtracting losses). Thanks!
Bluerose asks:
California - Good evening Ken and co-traders, tonight I have been looking forward to this chat. Since our last chat, I ordered and received your new course “Amazing Technique for Success” after viewing the tapes it gave me the last nod to start buying my first options. So now I have positions Dec Eurodollars, Dec Cocoa, and Oct Sugar. My broker was surprised when I got filled at half the price on Cocoa and Sugar. I also did get the Euro at half the price. (Just following the teachers instructions) THANK YOU, THANK YOU Ken. Now for my question - There is a market that I would like to get into but is a day order market, so I bid for a call when the prices are down, or I bid for a put when the prices are up. I still have not been filled at either. What is the risk of having a call option and a put option for the same market?
at 6:37:03 PM
Thanks, Bluerose. Good lessons, huh? I'm glad you surprised that broker . . . . There's no greater risk having a call and a put in the same market other than what you paid for them; that's called "bracketing" the market where you intend to profit either way it takes off (or drops off).
java junkie asks:
Hello Ken......Since coffee prices are at 30 year lows would it be more profitable to go long a futures contract with no stop loss and about $10,000 to back it up or purchase 2 coffee call options every 4 to 5 months? Thanks for all that you do to help the masses become successful traders.
at 6:38:21 PM
Thanks java junkie. No one will know the answer to your question until AFTER coffee makes its rally. Sorry, I just can't tell you which way is better because I just don't know.
lynnson asks:
Is a drought considered to be a ‘funnymental’ or is it a legitimate opportunity indicator?
at 6:40:55 PM
It's a "funnymental." There could be a drought here in the U.S. (which would be bullish for the grains), but there could be bumper crops in Australia of those same grains. This is why I just believe my charts . . . .
bob j asks:
I have 2 Nov,02 680 bean calls. With the current rise in the bean market how do I know when to liquidate?
at 6:42:06 PM
My first MONTHLY 50% target is 650, so that's where I'd liquidate half my position. Good one!
GasMan asks:
Hi Ken, glad I remembered about tonight's chat. Almost passed on it. Hey, I was wondering if you think silver and gold will continue to move higher together? I mean don't they usually? By the way, do you like gold? I mean it is a precious metal isn't it? Is silver considered a precious metal? How about copper? Speak of copper I once had a dog named copper. Isn't it a shame that copper tarnishes? I wonder why it does that? Guess it's one of those things that will always make me go uuuuuuuuuuuummmmmmmmmmmmmm. Anyway, thanks for giving me the metal to trade! (ha, ha)
at 6:43:17 PM
Thanks, GasMan. Great question! Goodnight . . . .
phutures phrom phoenix asks:
Hi Ken and all. Two questions. 1)You have said that you use the front month chart points as indicators to enter and exit positions, even though you are trading a market several months out. What is the logic for that? 2)You said that you rarely exercise an option. Isn't that what happens when an option expires in the money?
at 6:47:04 PM
Hello phutures phrom phoenix. 1) The front month chart is the driver. All other contract months take their cues from the front month chart. Therefore, I let the front month chart show me the way. 2) Yes, your option that expires in-the-money WILL AUTOMATICALLY be exercised for you. But if you liquidated it BEFORE it expired, you'd probably have made more money. (Only intrinsic value is credited to your account. You'll forfeit any time-value and/or volatility value.)
U.S. Charts ON-LINE, that is . . . .
Cosmo From Canada asks:
Hey Ken and Co, I've been paper trading with some success since March and in May I finally "got into the market" with some live cattle call options. Still patiently waiting for success there. Canola has been moving upward since April and is making new contract highs for July. This should indicate that we should be shopping for bargain 'put' options. I have found the daily and weekly 50s are both 352 and virtually no adjustment for any far out contracts based on Mondays closing numbers. Does this happen frequently when shopping the options market? Should I be considering the monthly 50 of 314 for my "Big Target"? Are the canola planets aligning in celestial harmony for the benefit of all cosmic contrarians or is this just a coincidence that more seasoned investors see frequently and do not get excited about? Ken is this the time to just paper trade this market or time to "GET IN!!" Thankyou for the introduction to this perfect, facinating, and most of all FUN business.
at 6:50:56 PM
Yes, after a major move, oftentimes the weekly and daily targets are the same. I can't tell you what's right for you to do, but by all means, keep following Canola (as well as all the other markets). Thanks for joining us this evening.
gbc asks:
Hi Ken, When you get stopped out of a futures trade before you reach the 50%, do you get back in, or stay out of the market? Thanks!
at 6:53:02 PM
You're seeing why I recommend learning options, gbc! "If you get out, you lose."
Russ - Malibu asks:
Dude, I've been sitting on 10 SIU2 for so long I feel like the Lone Ranger. They broke out (of the channel) in mid May and have taken me for a long, bumpy ride all the way up to 517 and back to 480. (Tonto says stops are for wimps!)Today I finally gave in and sold 2 for 505 (+4K). I'm going to dump 2 more at 510, 2 more at 515, and then ride the last 4 up to 563 (my weekly) or FND, whichever comes first. Hi Yo Silver!! Who was that masked man?
at 6:55:00 PM
Alright, Russ! You da man (the MASKED man)!
eve asks:
Do you detect seasonal patterns for some commodities when checking over the monthly charts? You indicated in your story about the cattle-rancher that he knew his commodity (i.e. cattle) and could therefore predict the curve every year without fail...are there other commodities in which that occurs that you've noticed?
at 6:57:55 PM
No, eve, you're talking "seasonals" and I don't find there's any such thing. What the cattle rancher knew was when cattle prices were low (or high). THEN he traded. The only difference between us and him is that we have to use charts to know where cattle prices are at any given moment, but being the the business, he knew from experience. Good question. Thanks.
pepper asks:
i think i finally got it when i made, 7,000 in corn last week, thank you, i bought the course 5 years ago and put it away, until, a few months ago, desprate to leave my job and dusted it off, thank you
at 6:58:20 PM
Thank YOU, pepper. Good goin'!
Cliff asks:
I have been a course member for thre years and have gone back to mostly paper trading. I feel that iI was thinking too much before The only real money trades I now have are a JUL 03 750 call and a bid of 20 points for a DEC 03 1150 cocoa put and I feel good. I hope this will help other people who might be discouraged - stay the course, I now know what you mean when you say if you get out you lose! Thanks Ken
at 6:59:19 PM
Thanks Cliff. Well said (and well done!) . . . .
JOE asks:
Joe from Boca, FL:Hello Ken, like yourself I am a long term position trader. My success has enabled me to leave my JOB and trade full time, thank you so much. My question is: when Hogs was making new lows on the front month I bought contracts at each new low. The weekly and monthly 50% was lower than the daily 50% so I held all of my contracts until yesterday when the daily 50% was hit on the front month. Is this what you do in this situation?
at 7:01:36 PM
Only your budget can provide the correct answer for you in this situation, Joe. And it sounds like you did the right thing. Try looking at options for a change. Thanks!
Bigguns asks:
Do you still calculate TRUE 50% retracements which you show in your TWMPMM 2 options course video. Thanks again dude!
at 7:02:27 PM
No, Bigguns. I eschew the true! Use the largest move you can find on any chart. Thanks.
kc asks:
If a market starts to take off after coming out of a channel or all time lows, is it too late to act on it? Is "going w/the trend" what they call it when you jump in after the fact?
at 7:03:38 PM
Yes, kc, that's what they mean (and also to stay aboard as long as the trend continues), but to ENTER after a takeoff is still (to me) the same as jumping on a moving bus (which I don't do anymore).
Tahoe Clay asks:
Hi Ken and Crew: Just got off work,(building the foundation for this years project house: ya, we build 'em from the foundation to the finish.) and I realized that for the last three years I have been building my foundation for my trading commodities, and I look forward three weeks to when I will be learning some of the finer finishing techniques from you at your B-day Boot Camp. I was wondering if I should bring my crystal ball? See ya August 3rd.
at 7:05:04 PM
Nope, Tahoe Clay, leave that crystal ball at home (but you could bring a big, expensive Birthday gift if you like)! Thanks. See you August 3rd!
Truckin in Texas asks:
Ken, when the markets are at extremes like now, do you ever hold profits past the 50% retracement--like the dollar index short?
at 7:05:38 PM
Sure, Truckin, that's the GOAL -- to be in as much of a market's major move as possible.
Russ - Malibu asks:
Dude: My wife wants me to take delivery of 1 of those 8 remaining SIU2 contracts. She thinks it would be really cool to have 312.5 lbs. of silver sitting on our new heavy duty coffee table. Whadaya think? You gotta love her....she's serious.
at 7:07:58 PM
Hey, Russ, dude. Okay if you want to, but it's a pain trying to use the coffee table, you have to polish it, and forget about moving the coffee table to vacuum . . . .
boise mike asks:
Hi Ken Boise Mike, here. I've had coffee calls for about a year and a half and have watched them all exprire worthless. Right now I'm not in the market at all and my account is down to about $600. Any suggestions?
at 7:08:35 PM
If you can manage it, don't quit now, boise mike. That's when coffee WILL take off!
nev-walt asks:
Ken, Many times in past chats you have stated there is always a buyer for your profitable option. This past two days I tried to liquidate my corn and bean options, at current value. Two days, two tries, no buyer. What do I do now ??? Give free rein to some floor broker on a market order ??
at 7:10:35 PM
I've never had this happen, nev-walt, so I'd say just keep doing what you're doing (and hopefully, futures prices will rally some more!)
moneyrules asks:
hi ken,scott from petaluma , ca. i made 3000.00 to date on cotton and 800.00 on rice!!!! placing your stops is an art ? thanks for all the info..
at 7:12:36 PM
Good one, moneyrules! Yes, placing stops is an art, not a science. I'd rather not do it, so I use cash (or options) for protection instead. Thanks.
ML asks:
Hi Ken, what do you think it is better plan, to zero in on one commodity or to spread out over several different markets?
at 7:13:11 PM
I'm a believer in not placing all of one's eggs into one basket.
MatJ asks:
Hi Ken & Futures Nuts... I took your course about 1 year ago, and it took me most of this time to "really get it" - it is that simple!!! I first bought some Wheat, Soybean, & Sugar options - those are doing well (well, the sugar is finally coming back up some...). Then I took the rest of the 2500 (only about 300 left after the Options, yes, I know I bought them too expensive), and bought 2 Canola Futures on a 123 bottom and made 450. Then I took that and am riding Wheat up from a 123 bottom. I have 1600 in profits in the Wheat and am looking for it to go to 400 - is that too wishfull of thinking on my part??? If it goes to 400 I have the spreadsheet worked out to clear 75000, with a downside of only 400 (I have Stops placed)...
at 7:15:03 PM
Yes, and even more, MatJ. My Monthly 50% = 485. Go get it!
trader bob asks:
I've been trading for about five years now. About two years ago I got tired of selling motorhomes and quit my job. I,ve been making a living on 123 tps and bottoms and narrrow sideways channels since then. All I can say is keep at it!
at 7:15:30 PM
Thanks Bob! Keep on keepin' on . . . .
prodigalsun asks:
HI Ken and all Is there a point in time where waiting for your half price bid on options has gone too long and it's no longer a viable buy? Thanks for all you do for us Ken. Really!!
at 7:17:05 PM
Thank YOU, prodigalsun. Yes: 1) When it's not filled and a farther-out contract comes available, and 2) When a market takes off without you and goes into the stratosphere. That's the time to give up on call options and begin pricing puts. Thanks.
Ninja asks:
Hi Ken, Just received some junk mail from a BOND trading "EXPERT". Said he can predict the bond market from the government reports that are put out all the time. Do you trade the bond markets and if so do you apply the same chart formations to these or follow the Gov. reports. We all know you can trust the government. NOT!!!!!!!!! trade on :0) ps filed literature in circular file!!!!
at 7:17:48 PM
Good move, Ninja. I just watch the charts (the bond charts too) . . . .
kc asks:
What would you consider a cheap call option for Coffee for Mar 2003? I've noticed that even at a 70 strike price they are still expensive.
at 7:19:13 PM
Look farther out in time, kc, and look at 100 to 150 strikes. Thanks.
Orion asks:
Hey Ken, sometimes I feel like the last guy to get on a moving train! Just looking for reassurance that this is still the best money making business on planet earth! You aren't doing no money down real estate yet are you??
at 7:20:31 PM
Hello Orion. Glad you logged on tonight. Just read thru these questions and comments this evening. It's inspiring . . . .
leona asks:
I'm working with limited finances, and trading options seems to work for me. Now, after finances have seen an increase (thanks Pork Bellies), would you suggest that I would trade many options in one or two markets, or trade multiple markets, with one option in each?
at 7:21:25 PM
I'd budget for two options times two rounds in any one market. Then let that answer determine how many markets you'll trade. Thanks!
Feerless asks:
Hi Ken! Are you still paying only around $200 for options? It seems that sometimes its tough to get those cheaper options to pan out. Just wondered if you still were using the same tactics or not.
at 7:22:24 PM
Absolutely, Feerless. They still call me "Cheap-o"!
goofygolf asks:
Hi Ken What is the 50% on sept. rice
at 7:23:36 PM
It's about 4.54, goofygolf.
dick asks:
Hi Ken, have you ever watched market reports as far as grain goes? Whether or not you should stay in a market? Thanks . Dick in Oshkosh.
at 7:23:55 PM
Never, dick. Never, never, never!
pepper asks:
ken i have 3 52 hog calls, when should i get rid of them so i dont lose
at 7:24:43 PM
When the front-month and weekly 50% levels are hit.
rktech asks:
...I bet you're gettin alot of Cocoa chat this evening...that darn downside shakeout suckered me too... but if you've become one with the trade (Ken the Zen master...ah ummm) the weekly 50% should hold true. So, is it time to short this bad boy or what !!??
at 7:26:00 PM
Yes, start pricing puts.
lynnson asks:
Is it a good idea to buy more Eurodollar options as they become less expensive and ‘average down’ or is it best to just purchase the originals and ride it out?
at 7:27:06 PM
Depends upon your budget, lynnson. I LOVE averaging down, but if your budget doesn't allow, just ride out what you have. Thanks.
lumpy asks:
hi ken! greetings from durango, colorado! are there still brokers out there that will open an account for less than $2000.00? I haven't found any yet, and I'm still paper trading......thanks for all your and your great staffs' help!
at 7:28:13 PM
Thanks, lumpy. Yes there are. Keep calling around and interviewing those brokers. It's NOT a waste of time, either: You're gaining a tremendous education that will pay off in many other ways too!
???? asks:
I received your course a few days ago. Is there enough information to start paper trading or do I need to order anything else? Diane Victoria, BC
at 7:28:56 PM
TWMPMM I is all you need, Diane. Pull out those charts and begin updating! Welcome aboard.
Kaery A asks:
Hello from Pacific Grove CA Ken, I would like to share an experience I recently had with Canadian Dollar Options. I had two options expire just as the CD was making it's move. Feeling like I should have went for more time as you always say. I put in a bid for 1/2 for some Sept 02 calls and on the retracement down I was filled. Now my options are worth 3x what I paid and looks like it is still on it's way higher. Thank you!
at 7:30:12 PM
Go, Canada, go!
gbc asks:
Ken, If we are not using the broker for advise, what is the advantage of a live broker vs. an on-line broker? Thanks,
at 7:31:04 PM
I've never used an on-line broker, but I want a live one to work my orders and watch my account with me. Use whichever works better for you. Thanks!
Ajax asks:
My understanding is that when you buy a futures contract, you calculate the retracement based on the front month. even though the actual contract may be for a month further out. My question is: When the front month expires, do you recalculate the retracement based on the new front month? Also, if the new retacement point has already been reached and passed do you liquidate the contract at a loss?
at 7:31:39 PM
Yes and yes. Great questions, Ajax. Thanks!
GYPSY WOMAN asks:
Good evening Ken and Co.! Made a small profit in Sept. Corn options - holding on to the 2nd one, hoping to make a bit more, before esp. date. COFFEE! - Bidding not quite 1/2 the current premiums on March and May '03 150 calls - "trying to be patient" and let the mkt. come to me?
at 7:32:12 PM
Fantastic, Gypsy Woman. You're doing great!
trouter asks:
hi ken ,thanks for teaching this ,it is great .I bought sept oat call at 275 and liq . today at 1875 dollars,my question is ,front mo. and next mo. are about 40 cents apart.With the expiration of front mo. next week ,will the prices even out or do they just keep going the way they are? thanks ,you've changed my life ,trouter calgary
at 7:33:47 PM
Thank you, trouter. No one knows, but let me throw this fact in the mix: The front month's futures price and the cash price must come together by Last Trading Day. Ponder that . . . .
ML asks:
At the end of each chat you post you favorite websites. How can you have favorite websites if you don’t use the internet?!
at 7:35:38 PM
Good question, ML. These are favorite companies/organizations of mine that have websites. So I recommend each and every one of them whether you are on the internet or not.
Did I do that? asks:
Ken.....How many licks does it take to get to the center of a tootsie pop®? This answer has always alluded me. By the way....are you coming to St. Loius any time soon? Thanks, Jason
at 7:36:16 PM
I was, Jason, but now you've scared me and I'm cancelling. Good night!
writer asks:
Ken, I'm holding Coffee and Rice calls. Boy are they taking their time. How long do you think it may take before they take off? Polish that Crystal Ball before answering, LOL
at 7:37:07 PM
Hello, writer. Wish I knew, but I'll be on board. Thanks.
Tahoe Clay asks:
Hi Ken, Did you sell your BMW?
at 7:38:10 PM
Not yet, Tahoe Clay. Call a Course Counselor if you're interested. Thanks.
drbarry asks:
I am considering getting the online charts through US charts. Can you "flip through" them like you can with the paper charts?
at 7:39:14 PM
You can't "flip through" them, but you can "click through" them. (Take a tour at uschartco.com.) Happy clicking!
Taking a quick break. Stay on the line. I'll be right back . . . . (Compute some 50%s while I'm gone)
limitup asks:
hello ken, i am about to buy 180 calls on march 2003 coffee. sound about right? also what are your 50% on each target i want to check my cal. thanks!!
at 7:46:59 PM
In coffee, I'm looking at one target: Monthly 50% = 17950. I'd go out and price those 100 to 150 calls in May 2003 (currently around 75 points for the 150s). Thanks.
Sunnyflorida asks:
JM from Spring Hill, Fl, Ken, with silver in a channel is it possible to buy an option instead of a futures contract, using the 50% retracements at this time?
at 7:47:37 PM
Absolutely, JM. Thanks.
northboy asks:
Edmonton,alberta my broker is alway's giving me higher margin's than what is in U S Chart's What's going on??
at 7:48:33 PM
Any brokerage can require more margin than the minimums established by the Exchanges. And it sounds like yours does.
CW asks:
Hello Ken and crew! I just reread your novel A RICH MAN'S SECRET and Vernon Howard's THE POWER OF YOUR SUPERMIND and just wanted to thank you for making these available. I consider them valuable to anyone seeking personal growth. I also locked in 17k in profits when Cotton hit it's daily 50% and am holding the other half for the weekly target. I noticed the weekly 50% targets for coffee and cotton have dropped sharply if I use the high of the last five years. My question is do you in your personal trading limit the high to the last five years in your weekly 50% calculation? Thanks!
at 7:49:20 PM
No, CW, back up for a grander view and use the monthly! Thanks.
Bluerose asks:
California- In your last newsletter you suggested we paper trade Sept. Orange Juice by buying a contract and hedging with an option for the same month. So I’m doing that right now. The interesting thing I’ve noticed is that if the contract goes up, so does the option, and if the contract goes down, so does the option. From what I’ve learned, it should be that if the contract goes down the option goes up. What is your insight on this?
at 7:50:37 PM
What you're seeing is VOLATILITY in action. When a market expresses volatility (rapid price movement), both puts AND calls can increase in value because no one knows what's going to happen next. Good observation. Thanks.
lynnson asks:
What is your advice on ‘selling’ options? Do you recommend it? Do you ever do it?
at 7:51:26 PM
No. Why limit your profit potential and take on UNlimited risk?!
Nicole-IOWA asks:
Ken-Just wanted to let ya all know...I have been here for every chat since I started 4 months ago..and have been sucessfully trading since then also, and feeling right at home doing so..am still learning new things along the way, but is that not what this life is all about?! NET PROFITS SO FAR= $400 in Cotton Options, $1000 in Jap Yen Options, $1015 in Corn futures Small but growing every day...inside and out!
at 7:52:16 PM
Fantastic, Nicole-IOWA. See what logging onto these chats can do?!
JohnCN asks:
Hi Ken I just subscribed to two years of online charts, the rich man secret, and the continuation of the money manual. I remember you mention inyour last chat a “ new methodology of trading” did that mean that you changed the TWMPM MANUAL? Thank you so much for these chats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! JohnCN
at 7:54:41 PM
No, didn't change it. But I've been working a long time on a new way to VALUE options. That is, to determine if one option provides a better value than another. I'm going to present what I've discovered so far at next month's Birthday Boot Camp.
Ed in NJ (aka Flan in Philly) asks:
Hi Ken, it's great to be in this game. It doesn't matter how long it takes for coffee, cotton, eurodollar, euroyen to turn around, that's exactly how long I will wait. Do you know why I have this confidence? P A P E R T R A D I N G !!!! I'll share one of my paper profit monsters: 4 months back spotted Dollar Index very high, priced puts around $300 ea, it fell off a cliff and today those puts worth $6,080 ea, over 2,000 % return in 4 months. What a biz! See you at the top, partner! Be well!
at 7:55:53 PM
See you at the top (when the Dollar hits bottom!). You're right -- what a business . . . .
mb45vt asks:
Hi Ken, Mary from Ventura,CA here. I have only had your course for a couple of months now, so I am still just watching. The question is, do you ever trade other commodities that are not in our charts, such as Milk or Butter?
at 7:56:48 PM
No, Mary, but there are PLENTY. I just stick to the chartbook. Thanks!
george_of_fbg_tx asks:
Hi, Ken. I have been working with your course and paper trading for the past couple of years. I have seen where the big moves happen and it is a matter of not following the crowd and not sweating the small stuff. Your courses have been a life changing experience and I want to thank you for sharing.
at 7:57:15 PM
Thank you, George.
Soybean asks:
Ken, Made $800 in 3 days in Nov. Rice an $1825.00 today in Beans in about 4 weeks. Thanks for all the help, I just had to get over the fear.
at 7:57:48 PM
That's all it is, Soybean, isn't it?! Glad you found out . . . .
Quick break. Gotta tend to this headache. I shouldn't have thought back so far. Be right back . . . .
Just a quick comment: I'm selling my 1998 750il BMW ("President's Car" security/luxury package) and realized that a Course Member on this chat may be interested. All my cars are always pampered. If interested, call a Course Counselor.
novster asks:
Hi Ken, Just wanted to say Hi! Have studied the course and paper traded but haven't taken the plunge yet. Following the chat sessions helps keep me excited about when I do start trading. Any one market you really like at this moment? Thanks Again!
at 7:58:25 PM
There are many, novster, but if I had to pick just one, it'd have to be COFFEE!!!!
Tahoe Clay asks:
Hi Ken and Crew< I gotta sign off for tonight, I will catch the rest on archives tonight. We are BBQing baby back pork ribs (go pork go)that have been marinating in a tereyaki sauce with a dash of coffee! every drop counts.... Then there is the corn bread and beans......boy I sure love my commodities....See ya
at 7:58:56 PM
Thanks, Tahoe Clay. Wish we were there!
The Jack of Trades asks:
Union City, GA--Hello Ken, just wanted to drop in and say hello. I've learned some BIG lessons this past (almost a) year...Buy low, sell high, don't get in a hurry because the markets ain't going anywhere, and if you get out, you lose...Basically, everything you've been saying since I first enrolled. Thanks....
at 7:59:30 PM
You are not only The Jack of Trades, you are a GENIUS! Thanks.
Brace Man asks:
I had to laugh when I read there was enough cotton to fill the Grand Canyon and look what has happened. Thank you for everything, this is fun (when you win). My question is are you still short Feeder Cattle?
at 8:00:20 PM
Absolutely, Brace Man. (And will be until they do what I KNOW they will do!) Thanks.
sq asks:
Hello Ken; I've had u'r course for a couple of years now. I've been paper trading future contracts, but not options. What do u think about purchasing a Dec. Cocoa put option @ 1200 for $40?
at 8:02:32 PM
I'd price the May 2003 1150 Cocoa put (trading today at 19 pts. -- $190). Watch for this to get much cheaper.
MatJ asks:
Hi again Ken, Thanks for the encouragement on my "Wheat Dreams". I'm just a Fireman/Computer Geek and starting to understand this Futures thing. When the Wheat finishes this run (to 485), I'll fly down in my new Velocity and visit you... By the way, what is the Monthly 50% on Beans???
at 8:03:21 PM
750. Come on down! Thanks.
Nicole-IOWA asks:
I am interested in buying your BMW Ken....I am bidding half!!!!!
at 8:03:50 PM
Good one, Nicole! I'm asking $200,000 . . . .
drbarry asks:
Do brokers usually charge a commission per trade or per option. ie 10 option contracts with a $30 commission would be $30 or $300?
at 8:04:27 PM
It'd be $300. (But it never hurts to dream . . . .)
GYPSY WOMAN asks:
I know the chat time is winding down, and just wanted to say a big thanx for loving what you do and your willingness to share it with those of us who appreciate the encouragement you give. "we didn't all come over on the same ship, but we're all in the same boat!" 'Til next chat, goodnight all.
at 8:04:48 PM
Thanks!
Sugar Ed asks:
hi ken.im looking for a breakout of 584 in october sugar (to go long).does that sound good to you? thx for everything!
at 8:05:56 PM
Yes, that'd work, Sugar Ed. (Also price call options.)
pianodad asks:
Pianodad from Austin, TX. Ken, do you have any advice for us about how to keep our head straight in trading? In the past, it seems whenever I have had a profitable trade, I become overconfident on the next trade, get cocky, and end up with a loss (and some humility). Then, it's hard to get up courage to make another trade (although I eventually do.) Did you have similar experiences? If so, what did you do to compensate? Would appreciate your insight. Thanks.
at 8:06:52 PM
Yes, absolutely, pianodad. We all have to learn these lessons. Try the books at FOUR STAR and stick to your plan. Learn to trust it and abide by it.
Well that's it for another month. Here are my favorite web sites if you're interested: www.guyfinley.com ;www.wildlifeimages.org; www.LP.org ; www.uschartco.com ; www.fourstarbooks.com. ; (new!) www.historictrees.org. My next chat will be Tuesday, August 6th. Also remember Matt's stock and commodity chat next Tuesday, July 16th. And join Guy Finley's chat Thursday, August 1st at 6:30 PM Pacific Time. (And visit his site at any time to read inspiring quotes and sign up to receive a free spirit-lifting weekly Key Lesson by e-mail.) As always: Use these newfound powers only for Good. Good night!
Return to archives page