Ken Roberts Chat

Let's Talk Trading (tm) with Ken Roberts
from June 10, 2003

As we begin this evening’s session, let me state the reason I conduct these monthly chats: to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and pick the brain of a successful, long-time, real-money trader. It’s not the highest and best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your Course materials. That’s what my Course Counselors are here for... Now is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you’re learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you’re out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun along those lines, so much better. Alright... I’ve got a (Cuban) Cohiba Lancero fired up, here’s our plate of freshly baked chocolate chip cookies, the coffee’s poured, so let’s talk commodities!

BlackTea asks:
Hello Ken, thanks for doing these chats! Did you ever use or consider 38% and 62% retracement levels in your trading? I missed several opportunities to take profits (Oct'02 Rice call, Mar'03 L.Cattle put) when a chart was headed for the daily/weekly 50%, but would turn around right around 38%-40% level. Thanks!

at 6:08:35 PM
Yes I did, BlackTea, but the 50% number always worked best. Whichever you use, however, STICK WITH IT. Thanks!

ML asks:
Is you’re deputy sheriff friend who introduced to you commodities still around and trading?

at 6:08:59 PM
I lost touch many years ago, so I don't know.

coffeemogel asks:
coffeemogel from grants pass Ken, I have put day limit orders in for coffee calls at the market and have not been filled. Now coffee is going back up. Should I put in limit orders higher than the market by 5 or 10 points to get filled? Thanks

at 6:10:18 PM
You might try that, Coffeemogel (and I assume you're using targeted chart points as your triggers). Thanks.

alicia asks:
Hey Ken! I have the fool proof way to tell which way the markets are going. As soon as my option expires and before I buy another the market goes the way I was trading. I can't win.

at 6:10:46 PM
That's exactly right, Alicia! If you get out, you lose!

wetjet-man asks:
Hi Ken, I was wondering, how old were you when you first began trading commodities?

at 6:11:55 PM
I was 32 years old (in 1983). (They hardly had calculators back then!)

Eric in Fort Worth asks:
Good evening, Ken. What's your take on Coffee? I really believed it was going to continue higher after breaking up & out of a channel in mid April, but it didn't. Has your strategy been to be stopped out and wait for a new bottom formation, or have you held on and even added contracts as the market has moved against you? I'm very interested to learn how you've handled this market.

at 6:12:47 PM
I don't use stops, Eric, so yes, I've waited it out (and added more). Hang in there!

fsu07 asks:
Ken, Here from Clermont, Florida. I love all of your stuff! You are the man!!! TWMPMM1 was great, and just finished RICH MAN'S SECRET. Probably should have done them in the reverse order but here's the question.....have you found that you are consistantly able to live in the PRESENT as described in RMS or do you have to constantly come back to the PRESENT 1000 times a day? I am finding it very hard to remain in my "right place" for any period of time. Any suggestions?

at 6:15:14 PM
You got it, fsu07! Remembering 1000 times a day is "the Work." This point doesn't seem to be clear to many spiritual students, and that's why I was moved to write the novel. Thank you!

Trade03 asks:
Hi, Ken and gang: after paper trading for a few years, we finally jumped in with real $$ in the June Euro $. just rolled over to Dec (short two contracts) what keeps running through my mind is "if you are in the market, you're right, if you are not in the market, you're wrong" we just know it has to plummet sometime !

at 6:15:46 PM
And you're RIGHT, Trade03. Now just hang on!

Mark in Tennessee asks:
Good Evening Ken, I've just finished reading the Greatest American Business Course. Thank you so much for sharing this information!! My question - Is now the time to start pricing Palladium Call Options, or am I too late?

at 6:17:00 PM
Yes, NOW would be the time, Mark, IF there were options in Palladium! (There aren't.) Thanks!

fsu07 asks:
Ken, has any course member found Clement Watt's Letter? Thanks for the chats!!!

at 6:18:11 PM
None who has told me, but you never know . . . .

CW from OK asks:
Hello Ken and Crew! I noticed Wheat retraced 50% of its last major move on the daily, think maybe a weekly 50% might be the next upside move?

at 6:19:23 PM
I surely do, CW! (And check out that Monthly chart too --- THAT'S what I'm banking on!)

Pauly in Atlanta asks:
Good evening Ken, In some months, the euroyen is trading in a channel while in other months it seems to trade with new highs. Considering the market is at such an extreme point, does the 1-2-3 Top or Channel formations matter as much as at this point as just being sure to get in the market (shorting it, of course). And with the risk being so low (based on the theory that this interest rate market should not rise above 100.00) do you place your stop loss at just above 100.00?

at 6:20:28 PM
Yes on all counts, Pauly (and/or buy put options too).

esther asks:
after reading twmpmmI i decided to start paper trading. i ordered my charts and picked my commodity. i want to understand as much as i can i began reading the amplified trading manual and it seems as though there are so many different ways i could trade on just one commodity. should i have stuck with twmpmm I until i fully understand the basics?? now i'm feeling a little overwhelmed.

at 6:22:14 PM
Take a deep breath, Esther! This should be FUN, not overwhelming. The markets aren't going away, there will ALWAYS be opportunity (in spite of what your mind tells you), so take it at YOUR pace. Great question, and I'm glad you joined us this evening. Thanks!

frankie asks:
Hi ken, sugar just broke through the daily 50 retracement and continued down, do you think its safe to go with the trend and take it short until the weekly 50% retracement?

at 6:23:51 PM
The Weekly 50% has been hit, Frankie, so look at that Monthly chart now. I'm long sugar and waiting for a (HUGE) takeoff. Thanks!

Krispy Kreme asks:
Hi Ken, David from Houston - I would like to invest a larger portion of my account, but I don't want to go overboard. As a general rule, what percentage of one's account should be used as "seed wheat"? Are there any books you could recommend for basic money management?

at 6:25:18 PM
I'm doing a 4-part series on Money Management and Budgeting in the GAB Newsletters now. Call a Course Counselor for details. Thanks!

Ben---Austin,Tx. asks:
Ken--when do you--decide if a 50% re-trace has started or if it is just a temp. pull-back? Any rule of thumb?

at 6:26:08 PM
Give me an example market, Ben. We'll watch for your reply. Thanks.

ken roberts asks:
unforgotten, Hi ken, thanks for this chat room I'm sure it is a great help to all of us. Ken, I see rough rice in a channel of aprox. $500. right now it is at the low part of the channel, would it be wise to go long at this time and just risk several points below the low of the channel?

at 6:27:37 PM
Yes, you could, Unforgotten, but I'd try it with call options. That Weekly Rice chart looks to me like it's trying to make a 50% retracement. Thanks.

colette asks:
to Erir regarding coffee: I have been in coffee (with options for 2 years - and they keep expiring but I will not get out. Sooner or later it will go and we want to be there when it does. sometimes it gets real discouraging but hang in there. I can not do futures, but options are fine for me

at 6:28:25 PM
Fantastic advice, Colette! Good for you --- you get it!!!

RON FROM ALASKA asks:
Ken: I am short July Bellies at 90, 92 and 96 and prepared to keep adding if it keeps going up. This could get a little uncomfortable but I know that the bigger a hole I dig now, the greater the profit when Bellies head back down. My problem/ Question: July and August are fairly close in price and rolling to August seems reasonable but the next nearest month, Feb 2004 is WAY DOWN (about 20 cents below July) The thought of "losing" 20 cents on a roll concerns me. What are your thoughts on this? Thanks. Ron.

at 6:30:57 PM
If this were my position, Ron, I'd roll to August and hope you catch the drop BEFORE the August contract expires on August 26th. Stick with it!

trwtrader asks:
Hi Ken, I have an August Put in pork bellies which will expire on August 1st and I know you have a few too. I'm assuming this market moves quickly since there are no options further out. What has your experience been with Pork Bellies? Also, Cocoa is making new lows and calls are getting real cheap. Have you had any feedback regarding course members use of TIVO vs. picking options manually. How accurate have the ratings been? Thanks for all of the materials and instruction you provide.

at 6:33:28 PM
My experience is that Pork Bellies are WILD!!! Yes, we've had great feedback from TOVI (not TIVO --- that's the fantastic DVR system). Word is that TOVI picks options that stick and last; in other words, TRUE VALUE. Thanks.

RAYTERE asks:
HI KEN...RAY FROM CLAYMONT,DELAWARE...LAST MONTH...MIKE IN IL ASKED YOU..."ARE YOU BUYING PUTS IN OATS?" YOU ANSWERED..."NOT YET, BUT IM PRICING THEM"...QUESTION...HOW DO YOU GO ABOUT 'PRICING OPTIONS'? STILL DECIDING ON WHAT TO ORDER NEXT...TWMPMM 2 OR GAB?

at 6:35:36 PM
"Pricing them" means I think they're still too expensive, so I wait. Oats have basically dropped since our last chat which means puts are expensive. Good question, thanks!

joe asks:
After liquidating a position is it normal for a stop loss to become an active order?

at 6:36:55 PM
Great question, Joe (and another good reason to have a broker on your side to help you remember): When you close out a position, you MUST also cancel out any stop-loss orders you had placed! Hey everyone: Be sure you realize this fact! Thanks Joe.

Learnin asks:
Learnin here...still very much a "greenhorn". Just began paper trading and know I need a broker.Where do I look for one?? Living on a little Island (not in the South Pacific...yet..ha!); do you have any suggestions that could get me started?

at 6:38:06 PM
Sure, Learnin: Begin with the "Names & Numbers to Know" sheet in your Course. And then SHOP until you find one you like and work well with.

Mark in Tennessee asks:
Ken, Sir, While taking some profits from my trades in rice (and feeling pretty good) I suggested that the broker take a certain amount for himself, as a tip. He said "thanks, but I can't." What other Protocol information for dealing with brokers should I know? By the way, these chats are great! I learn so much from reading your responses to other students' questions.

at 6:40:12 PM
I NEVER heard this one, Mark! Thanks for sharing it! Your broker gets plenty of "tips" on your non-profitable trades! The only other "protocol" tips I could offer would be to repeat and re-repeat all your orders to him/her to make sure there is no miscommunication. Thanks!

Bill R asks:
Hi Ken, I've just completed prioritizing my first set of charts. I've noticed there's a huge difference in the 50% retracements (profit potential) between the Monthly and the Weekly in a few of the markets like Silver, Sugar, and Coffee. Do you discount the potential if this was caused by big spikes many years ago?

at 6:40:48 PM
Not a bit, Bill R. Those big spikes count! Good question.

vahe asks:
Hi Ken , i am one of your new course members, could you recomend one of your counselers that has patientce since i am a beginer ? Thx

at 6:41:48 PM
They ALL do, vahe! What a blessing we have with my hand-picked Course Counselors.

Fred asks:
Ken, while looking at the monthly and weekly charts, it seems that wheat has a lot of upward potential--what do you think of December03 wheat contracts?

at 6:42:19 PM
I'm long, Fred, so that's what I think!

Stan from Illinois asks:
Hi Ken, Thanks for the chats, courses, and all the support. You have said silver has been good for you over the years. Has there been any one or two commodities that have shown consistant highs, then lows, etc that you have consistantly profited from? Thanks, Stan from Illinois

at 6:43:19 PM
Yes, Stan: Coffee, the Japanese Yen, Orange Juice, to name three big ones.

Kristos in England asks:
hello ken , just bin itchtin to mention that those march 04 eurodollor options are so cheap i had to buy some more. also me and my bro are heavy in coffee, waiting for what everyone else is. ken we love these chats, nuf respect.

at 6:44:43 PM
(What are you doing up so late/early, Kristos?!) Thanks! (And "everyone else" is NOT heavy in coffee --- that's what makes this business so great!). Thanks to you and your bro!

607larry asks:
hey ken what is your take on silver,

at 6:45:09 PM
Look at that Monthly chart: I'm long.

Shanti asks:
HI Ken, I am short 1 contract of Euro FX. When I placed my order, I also wanted to place my stop-loss at the same time. The broker was concerned that if I was not filled the stop-loss order might be. Can you clarify this. Thanks!

at 6:47:09 PM
A stop-loss order IS a trading order. So if you don't have a position on that the stop-loss order will neutralize, it will put you in the market just the same. (Refer to a previous question/response on this topic.) Thanks!

in the money asks:
Do you think a 70 put in Aug pork bellies is too far out of the money? Also is this just a pullback in rice on its way up to 7.35. Eurodollars sure are looking cheap. Thanks again for all you do.

at 6:49:43 PM
Not a bit, In The Money: 70 is ABOVE the 50% in Bellies. Yes, I believe Rice is just pulling back on its way up. Eurodollars ARE cheap! Thanks! (How'd you slip THREE questions in there????)

redbelly asks:
hi ken, After seeing Joe's question I am assuming that if I am stopped out of a position, my stop loss has been hit and activated thereby cancelling my position and that now there is no stop loss order left to become active. Is this right?

at 6:50:10 PM
That's correct!

BlackTea asks:
My broker does not recommend getting into Canola options, as they might be hard to liquidate. Would you comment on that? Thanks!

at 6:50:36 PM
Get into Canola options!

coffeemogel asks:
coffeemogel from grants pass Ken, I'm not sure what you mean by targeted chart points for purchasing options as my triggers. Actually I was using options history and the weekly 50% level as guides. Thanks

at 6:52:27 PM
Hope this doesn't begin a plate of spaghetti, but I meant using chat targets (50% levels, resistance, support) for EXITING your trade. Does this clarify?

Trade03 asks:
Hi, Ken on the cocoa front month, it shows the FND as JUNE 17 and the LTD is July 16. was wondering why are the two dates so far apart?

at 6:54:47 PM
There are lots of little "glitches" like this in the commodity business, Trade03. And there's always a reason for it. I don't happen to know what that reason is in Cocoa, but you can certainly call the Exchange Cocoa's traded on and ask --- they have GREAT Public Relations departments. Let us know next chat! Thanks!

Eric in Fort Worth asks:
Hi again, Ken. ML's question makes me want to ask: Is that cattle rancher you talked about in your 1995 roundtable video still around and trading 100 or more contracts at a time?

at 6:55:32 PM
I lost track of him when my first broker (Ernie Roseman) retired many years ago, so the answer is, I don't know. Sorry.

RON FROM ALASKA asks:
On the subject of hanging in there, I have been short Eurodollars and coffee (options and futures- I prefer futures) for 2 years now and same like collette I have no intention of missing the moves that will surely occur. Also note that I recently hopped out of Rice because I was sick of losing money on each and every roll and decided to get back in on a pullback only to see Rice BLAST OFF without me. Ouch!

at 6:57:00 PM
A great lesson (if not a painful one), Ron. As the moonbeams in California say, "Thanks for sharing."

RoyalFlush asks:
From Phoenix, AZ. Good evening Ken & friends. You said that you don't use stops when trading future contracts. Do you still use 1 2 3 formations to trigger entry points? If not, how do you determine entry points? P.S. Really love these chats.

at 6:58:17 PM
That's correct, RoyalFlush: I don't use stops and I enter a market when new long-term lows (or highs) are hit. Thanks. Glad you joined us this evening.

joe asks:
If you had to choose, what are the 3 most powerful/useful books offered at four star books?

at 7:00:00 PM
Cosmic Consciousness, Extraordinary Popular Delusions (& the Madness of Crowds), and Mystic Path to Cosmic Consciousness. Great question. Thanks!

trwtrader asks:
Ken, I would like to start paper trading futures using Trade Tracker in US Charts Online. It appears at this time that stops for futures postions have to be manually tracked as Trade Tracker does not have this capability. Any plans to add this feature to Trade Tracker in the future? I know, just when you thought you had all the "bells and whistles" someone has to ask for more. Thanks......

at 7:06:59 PM
Most Course Members place their stop-loss orders in the "Notes" section of Trade Tracker, trwtrader, so you can read it all at one time.

Shanti asks:
Good Evening everyone! Ken thank you for sharing commodity trading and most important for me the esoteric teachings. My broker called and wanted me to be the "seller" of the Euro$ options. I declined. Please explain as a seller the risks involved. Is this one of the reasons for volatility, so the seller can get out of the responsibility? Thanks!

at 7:08:40 PM
I NEVER sell options, Shanti. The Seller is the one who WRITES the options that you and I purchase (or BUY). The SELLER's risk is UNLIMITED -- you may as well be long/short a futures contract. Glad you asked! (And DON'T let a broker talk you into anything!) Good goin'!

Donnie asks:
Hi Ken, I'm another greenhorn, anxious to start making some real money, but I want to make sure I'm calling my shots right before I come close to opening my wallet. I "got in" short on December Gold just at the end of May, and it's already paying off. I made myself short for the mere fact that it was nearing the high spike seen during February. Is this good practice or am I being too speculative? Thanks.

at 7:10:11 PM
That's GREAT, Donnie! What you did was trade a 50% Retracement of a recent move. Good goin'!

ninofeo asks:
Hi Ken ! That looks like a nice 1-2-3 in Pork Bellies. I was wondering, are you limited in the number of contracts to short since the market is so thinly traded?

at 7:11:39 PM
Yes, it's shaping up, Ninofeo. How many did you wish to trade? I'll bet your order is filled . . . .

Ben---Austin,Tx. asks:
Ken--what about Jul. PB or Jul Cocoa on 50% re-trace or temp. pull-back--might even make a channel yet? What's your thoughts?

at 7:16:50 PM
(Refer to Ben's previous question): Good one, Ben. I asked for one example and you slipped in TWO! Okay, here goes: Weekly Pork Bellies will likely make a 50% retracement DOWN now after reaching its previous highs in 2000 and 2001. Weekly and Monthly Cocoa just made 50% retracments DOWN, so I'd look for UP moves now. Hope this helps.

morning juice asks:
hello ken, are you looking to short or buy puts on any of the financials yet?

at 7:19:15 PM
Yes! Many of them, Morning Juice! In the FINANCIALS section of U.S. Charts, that would be: CRB Index, T-Bonds, T-Notes, Libor, Euroyen, and Eurodollar!!!

Fred asks:
Ken, I just wanted to tell you how you've made a believer out of me--I recently showed my son three of my paper trades which I kept on hand drawn charts, and showed him also how contract multiplication made over $8,000 on paper!---I'm still trading and watching five markets, and am planning on finding a broker and entering the real arena within the next few months. Thanks, and here's to your future (and your students!) prosperity.

at 7:19:57 PM
Thanks, Fred! Good goin'.

Tootsie asks:
HI KEN I'M TOOTSIE IN LOS ANGELES JUST WANTED TO SAY THANKS FOR SHARING THE WEALTH OF INFORMATION. I READ AND REREAD THE INFO EVERYDAY AND NEVER GET BOARED. JUST RECENTLY STARTED TRADING. I HAVE PUTS IN THE DEC. EURO DOLLAR. I FEEL LIKE A MILLIONAIRE ALREADY JUST WITH THE KNOWLEDGE I HAVE AQUIRED READING YOUR MATERIAL. KEN ROBERTS AND TED WARREN TWO OF MY FAVORITE AUTHORS.

at 7:21:25 PM
You SHOULD feel like a millionaire, Tootsie! For every one of those puts, you're controlling $1,000,000!!!

Bill R asks:
Monthly Soybeans 50% is around 750 and the Weekly is around 538. The current price for July (from old chart - 5/19/03)is 645. What do we believe in this case? Up or down?

at 7:24:05 PM
Great question, BillR! The Weekly says DOWN, the Monthly says UP, so I'm looking at the front-month (July) Daily. It says to me that it's ready to make a 50% retracement down from its year-long rally. So short-term, I'm short.

SCOTTY asks:
Hi Ken are you looking to short bonds with all of the noise going on about the gov buying bonds and if so do you feel it would be prudent to purchase sept options or Dec?Thank you Scott

at 7:25:07 PM
I'm short Bonds, Scotty, but forget about "all of the noise"; that's stupid news. My chart tells me to be short! Thanks!

jbeggs asks:
Jim from the Rainy East Coast: If you don't use stops, are you covering your positions with the opposite option? If not, all I can say is that I can't wait for my account balance to catch up to yours!!!

at 7:25:59 PM
Yes, I use cash, jbeggs. But I didn't have options as are so readily available nowadays. So don't overlook options!

SCOTTY asks:
HI Ken would it be prudent to roll out of a option when tovi turns it to red and move that money to the options that are in the black regardless of profit or loss? Thank you.............................

at 7:27:13 PM
Yes, it would, Scotty. Isn't TOVI terrific!!! When it turns red, an option is decaying way too rapidly. So save your money and put it to better use in another more valuable option.

If you're wondering what "TOVI" is, go to www.tovionline.com and look around. It's the BEST thing to happen to options since they first began trading!!! There's nothing like it! Why trade in the dark?! NOTE: I'm currently working on a personalized tour of TOVI where I guide you through its high points step by step. Keep checking the site . . . .

frankie asks:
hi Ken, i just finished "Rich Mans Secret", how do we use the concept in the book when trading? thanks

at 7:31:08 PM
Stay in the present, Frankie. That takes all emotionalism out of trading (which is our worst enemy!). Good question. Thanks!

Butter Bean asks:
I've opened an account with $1,000. I've got a few months left of on-line charts, and was thinking of just getting TOVI rather than renewing my charts. What pros & cons do you see with either of these ideas? I would miss these chats though. Butter Bean

at 7:32:40 PM
Well first of all, Butter Bean, these Chats are open to all. You're ALWAYS welcome here. I love both U.S. Charts and TOVI and use both in all my trading, so that's my position. Try both, however, and see what works best for YOU. Thanks!

CUBAN PETE asks:
Hi Ken. After reading your August 2002 chat, I got into a contract of the Nasdaq. After rolling over 3 times, I closed my June 2003 contract with almost $45000 profit. Thank-you Ken.

at 7:33:41 PM
Thank YOU, Pete. Remember: LOTS of people read that chat just as you did, but I wonder how many of them made "almost $45,000 profit"?! Good for you!

Sherry A asks:
Sherry A from sequim, WA: Hi, Ken: I have read the course book and own the video workshop. This is my first chat session. I heard mention during this session of 50% retracement on weekly and monthly charts. I don't remember seeing retracement applied to weekly and monthly charts. Does this work the same way as on daily charts. In what course is this covered? Thanks

at 7:35:29 PM
ALL of them, Sherry! Call a Course Counselor for clarification and guidance. It DOES work the same way on Weekly and Monthly charts. Welcome aboard!

Pqhpat asks:
Ken and staff,good evening to you all! This is your yogi friend from Texas. It's always refreshing for me to be tuning in to your chats. Great school! Taking up what Mark from Tennessee said about brokers not taking "tips," and you replying about non-profitable trades, keeps me wondering why my broker towards the end of the month calls me and suggests some markets I should enter. I always answer, "I'll look at my charts,"having been taught several times by experience how I lost money listening to him. Is it true that brokers get paid based on the percentage of commissions they get out of clients' trades?

at 7:37:57 PM
Absolutely, Pqhpat!

frankie asks:
hi ken, i recently took a few big losses on my account. Do you think i should make a few quick day trades with tight stops of course, and take small profit to build my confidence and add alittle capital back? please help!

at 7:38:55 PM
I wouldn't, Frankie. But do back off awhile and take a look at what you've been doing from a safe distance. I think you'll gain a fresh, new perspective.

Tootsie asks:
HI KEN THIS IS TOOTSIE IN L.A. I JUST RECENTLY STARTED TRADING. I HAVE DEC.EURO DOLLAR PUTS. MY BROKER SUGGESTED SEPT. WHEAT CALLS AND AUGUST SOYBEAN PUTS WHAT DO YOU THINK.

at 7:39:34 PM
I agree, Tootsie, but it should be YOUR decision. What do YOU think about that?

jawga asks:
After reading and studying GAB and ordering a subscription to TOVI (it rocks) I am wondering if I should set my own market via 50%, etc and use TOVI to confirm or use TOVI only. I notice that a few of your traded options/markets do not come out at the top of the TOVI list. How do you plan to use the TOVI tool?

at 7:44:05 PM
Actually, jawga, YOU just proved the value of TOVI: You're analyzing the markets as you never have before! I set my targets using 50% Retracement levels and then find VALUEable options with TOVI to trade that market. Yes, TOVI ranks the markets, but only a few can be top-ranked. (But that doesn't mean the other markets aren't tradeable.) Good goin'!

KEN asks:
HI KEN FROM B.C. I KNOW THE BIG PICTURE FOR COFFEE SUGAR ORANGE JUICE COPPER IS BULLISH... RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS BECAUSE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY ETC. EVERYTHING IS HEADING DOWN... A GOOD SIGN BECAUSE A LOT OF THESE COMMODITIES WILL BE REALLY LOW. OPPORTUNITY ABOUNDS LETS ALL HAVE PAITENCE AND IF YOU'RE AGGRESSIVE CATCH SOME OF THESE SMALL MOVES.

at 7:44:39 PM
Couldn't have said it better myself! Thanks . . . .

dforbes asks:
Hello Ken! I get a fantastic surge of excitement every time I read and evaluate the info in the Chat Room!! We are also enjoying and benefitting from the info in the GAB Updates. We are still paper trading at this point, but feeling more and more confident as we follow the markets - thanks to you and your staff for the support!! You folks in Oregon look really good to us in Texas - keep up the good work and know we appreciate it daily!!!

at 7:45:48 PM
Thank you, dforbes! Come on up and see us sometime --- it's beautiful here!

robert asks:
I'm short 6 dec 03 cocoa with a nice profit. Given the recent drop near the 50% and some support on the weekly, yet there is still room for this market to fall what would your exit strategy be? (I currently have a limit order to liquate 4 of the 6 at 1420)

at 7:49:00 PM
Sounds great to me, Robert. Then keep a tight (silent) stop in place on those remaining two contracts. A "silent" stop is one that only you and your broker know and s/he watches that market closely to jump in with the order when your price is hit (this way, no floor trader can "run your stop.").

coffeemogel asks:
Ken, are TOVI option selections a bargain at the market when TOVI lists them? Thanks

at 7:49:38 PM
Yes. No bidding lower when TOVI says it's a VALUE! (Fantastic, yes?)

E. Celeste asks:
Greetings everyone from NW Wisconsin. Ken, since the Euro FX has so short a history (since Jan. "99") do you trust the all time high it is at, and do you sense Euro FX is getting ready to head down?

at 7:50:27 PM
Good question. I'm looking at it from the short side, but you're right: it could go higher still. The Monthly isn't "mature" enough to absolutely bank on.

fathog asks:
Hi Ken, have been long in coffee for over two years now. Was way down in Rice 7.5k, but stayed and took a 22k profit. I'm still long rice and waiting. I was feeling prety good (profits on coco, cattle and can $$) I decided to short the EuroFx. Well I got in at 110 (sep&dec) but I got more contracts that my account allowed, so I had to scramble with margin calls and coffee going down in may didn't help and have no more money to add more Efx. BUT I KNOW that it will be profitable at 110. I just don't know when........What a great learning expirience is turning out to be....and it's not over yet...

at 7:51:23 PM
Absolutely, Fathog! Well said.

MORTEZA asks:
KEN, WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT WHEAT; IS IT "CBOT" OR "KCBT" ? I AM CONFUSED.

at 7:52:00 PM
CBOT, Morteza (see the U.S. Chart legend).

Carribean Craig asks:
Hi Ken, Just hit 6 figures in cashed out positions for 03'. Two things you've taught me are priceless " trust your charts" and "history repeats itself" pull me to the present when that other voice kicks in.

at 7:52:22 PM
Thanks Carribean!

MORTEZA asks:
WHAT'S "GAB"?

at 7:52:42 PM
The Greatest American Business Course. (Call a Course Counselor!)

Mark in Tennessee asks:
Hi Ken, When I got a call from my broker, to let me know my order was filled, she suggested that I take a look at going SHORT Aug live hogs, and LONG Oct live hogs because of the distance in price currently of the two months. She said that because I would be protected as the market moved either way, that the margin might be as low as only $600. Does this make any sense to you? I don't remember this being taught in TWMPMM.

at 7:54:17 PM
Your broker is trying to talk you into placing a SPREAD trade which I NEVER do (but it does generate TWO commissions for the broker). If you don't understand it, don't trade it! Glad you asked.

Eric in Fort Worth asks:
Ken, Eurodollars cannot go above 100.00, correct? This market looks to be about as extreme as one can get, wouldn't you say?

at 7:54:59 PM
Technically it could happen, Eric, but never has. It's about as extreme as it gets.

Stan from Illinois asks:
Ken, for those that may not yet be in coffee...a suggestion...Since you mentioned in your last chat that when coffee does spike way up, it does not stay there for long. Why not wait for the big spike up and then short coffee with put options. No money tied up waiting for the up spike, but still a way to profit big. What do you think? Thanks, Stan from Illionis

at 7:55:45 PM
Sounds GREAT, Stan!

RON FROM ALASKA asks:
Ken: I shorted Bonds from 112 to 117 and have 5 contracts at an average of 114.5 Who would have thought they would ever be this high?! The 50% of the last big move is about 116.25 at which point I am still down about $6000. The 50% for the entire July contract is about 113.5 and the weekly 50% from the last major move (Mar 2002 to present) is 110.25 Where would you attempt your exit?

at 7:56:54 PM
I'd use the Weekly 50%, Ron. Thanks!

Jim from Kalamazoo, MI asks:
Just letting you know I am shorting a Sept Euro$ contract and I have a call option (Sept '03 99 call) to hedge. If the call option is in the money, should I cash it out?

at 7:57:51 PM
You certainly could, Jim, but wouldn't your futures contract loss negate the gain from the call option?

Eric in Fort Worth asks:
Ken, have you found that the man-made markets, such as currencies and the S&P, are harder to trade than the physical markets, due to manipulation as well as overnight trading?

at 7:59:11 PM
No (but ask anyone who's ever traded Pork Bellies, Lumber, and Orange Juice!).

Hot in Phoenix asks:
love the chats ken , it helps , and verifies what i have been looking at and verivies that i'm on the right track accordin to all your teachings via your course materials, Thx A mill Ken Roberts!

at 7:59:36 PM
Thank YOU, Hot in Phoenix!

Stan from Illinois asks:
Ken, gold has been dropping recently and tanked (today...down over $9) I have a put that has increased 81 %. I have an order in to liquidate. Is $ 330 a good price to start to shop call options ? Do you think it will drop lower? Thanks Stan from Illinois

at 8:01:16 PM
Start shopping calls NOW, Stan! And yes, I see Gold working on its Weekly 50% retracment DOWN now.

morning juice asks:
nick from NJ hi ken, what would be the next best choice of your courses after twwpmm 1 and 2?

at 8:01:34 PM
Grab GAB, Nick!

wetjet-man asks:
Dear Ken, What kind of car do you drive?

at 8:04:27 PM
Actually, I have six cars now, Wetjet-man: A '31 Buick, '36 Chevy pickup, the Infiniti G35 Coupe, a CL500 Mercedes, the LS 430 Lexus, and "the Bump" (a VW Bug) --- all black!

joe asks:
Besides a cpa where would I find the best advice on taxes for a full time self employeed commodity trader? Now that you have all these years experince could you help me, trying to retire at 25.

at 8:05:14 PM
Call a Course Counselor and ask for Matt.

MORTEZA asks:
HI KEN; IF YOU HAD $5,000 TO INVEST IN THE MARKETS TODAY. WHICH COMMODITIES WOULD YOU INVEST IT IN TODAY.

at 8:06:24 PM
I'd go to TOVI and trade its Top-Ranked market.

Well that's it for another month. Here are my favorite web sites if you're interested: www.tovionline.com ; www.uschartco.com ; www.fourstarbooks.com. ; www.historictrees.org. ; www.billoreilly.com ; www.wildlifeimages.org; www.LP.org. My next chat will be Tuesday, July 8th. As always: Use these newfound powers only for Good. Good night!

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