Let's Talk Trading (tm) with Ken Roberts
from May 14, 2002

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As we begin this evening’s session, let me state the reason I conduct these monthly chats: to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and pick the brain of a successful, long-time, real-money trader. It’s not the highest and best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your TWMPMM Manual. That’s what my Course Counselors are here for... Now is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you’re learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you’re out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun along those lines, so much better. Alright... I’ve got a Fuente Opus X fired up, here’s our plate of freshly baked cookies, the coffee’s poured, so let’s talk commodities!

Nicole asks:
Just wondering if you were ever planning on coming to Iowa?
at 6:05:23 PM
No, nothing planned, Nicole, but you never know . . . .
ML asks:
When did you first learn about the 50% rule? Did Ted Warren teach that?
at 6:06:51 PM
No, Ted didn't specifically teach the 50% Retracement Rule. I learned it from my Deputy-Sheriff friend.
Everest29 asks:
From Dallas, Tx. Cocoa Is BEAUTIFUL!! Textbook 123. Or should I say TWMPMM 123. Thank you for everything!!!
at 6:07:07 PM
Thanks Everest29! Trade on!
Tigger T Bounce asks:
When will you be on tour again ?
at 6:08:20 PM
I'm ALWAYS on tour, Tigger. I live on tour. Tour is my life. I just came back from a tour (to Washington, D.C.). But let my Course Counselors know where you'd like to see me tour next. Thanks!
California Blue Rose asks:
Hi! Ken and fellow traders, I'm starting to learn the art of trading so here is my question - I heard you say on the alert line that you bought a contract for bean oil just above the #2 point and placed your stop loss just below the #1 point. Now if you pillar contracts as the market goes up, will you lose money on those contracts if you are stopped out below the #1 point?
at 6:14:01 PM
Depends, California Blue Rose: If as you pillar on the way up you place a stop-loss, that would help prevent losing on those/that contract(s) on the way back down. Experiment several ways on paper and see which you are most comfortable with. Thanks for joining us tonight.
topaz asks:
first time on chat room. what is your take on the new farm bill and how will it affect comm. in general?
at 6:15:24 PM
My take (ALWAYS) on government intervention is that it's wrong, wrong, wrong. And I don't take it into account when reading my charts. They still show the TRUE picture (even in the face of phoney government manipulation). Isn't that great?! Thanks.
Artis asks:
How wide is a narrow channel?
at 6:15:49 PM
Okay, I give up. How wide is a narrow channel?
sean asks:
Hi Ken-Sean here. I have just started paper trading and have been trying to follow as many markets as i can to get my knowledge level up and kearn as much as I can. My Question is about risk/reward ratios. What kind of a ratio makes you feel comfortable in trading. Thanks for everything you do.
at 6:17:05 PM
Thanks, Sean. I like at least a 3-to-1 risk/reward ratio, but paper trade several to get a feel for what suits YOU.
sandman asks:
sandman says Thanks To Ken Roberts, summer of 99' to this day my total revenue from commodoties is $8000.00 thanks again.
at 6:17:29 PM
Thank YOU Sandman. Glad you logged on with us tonight.
bernadette asks:
Bernadette from Dover: Ken, I just wanted to say thanks for giving me hope. I just recently started your course about 6 months ago. So far, I have made $1800 profit in natural gas. Small change, but I have confidence that this really works! When are you coming to New Jersey? The "garden state" is beautiful
at 6:19:37 PM
Thanks, Bernadette. I've been told of New Jersey's beauty and would like to visit some day. You never know . . . . (Remember: Small change is the beginning of Big Bucks.)
CW from Oklahoma asks:
Hello Ken and crew! Just took 20k out of the Can$ market, nice channel and nice final move, thanks again for the introduction to the markets and Four Star Books! I'm wondering if you will sell part of your Cotton position at the daily 50% since it has gotten so low, or if you will hold for some point of resistance on the daily chart? Also, would like to know what your daily and weekly 50% targets.
at 6:23:16 PM
Hello CW. Cotton's Monthly 50% = 73. Weekly = 5550. Daily (July) = 42. I'll sell half my longs at 42 (basis July contract), half of my remaining at 5550, and hold onto the rest for 73. Thanks!
Mike in IL asks:
hi ken- strange question- how do you bounce back when you stay in a trade too long and lose profits? I find myself second guessing instead of feeling confident about my trades.
at 6:24:21 PM
You MUST learn to believe your charts, Mike. Just like piloting an aircraft on instruments. It takes patience and practice, but it's certainly doable. Thanks for joining us.
kc asks:
Hi Ken, I was looking through your money manual and also the last few chats, I realise you've seemed to change your trading style, in the book you were more into stops, futures, but now it's more into options trading, is that right ?
at 6:25:23 PM
Yes, kc, that's true. When I first started in the futures markets (1983), there weren't options! Now the options market is HUGE. And what an advantage (and safety) they offer us . . . .
Tigger T Bounce asks:
I miss our old conversations during your round-tables (it's me .. JB )
at 6:26:18 PM
Thanks JB! Me too! Thanks for joining us.
coffee mike asks:
HI KEN,I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW IF YOU TRADE OPTION SPREADS,THANKS!
at 6:26:41 PM
Nope (why limit your profit potential?).
Mr. Coffee asks:
Great time to buy more coffee in May 03 contracts and later now, isn't it?
at 6:27:00 PM
Absolutely, Mr. Coffee. That's what I'm doing.
Artis asks:
I am a new course member, What seems to be hot right now? Artis- PA
at 6:27:45 PM
Artis! That's exactly the WRONG question! (Watch that Paper Trading video again!) Glad you logged on tonight.
upsdriver asks:
Ken thanks for the stop losses built into your course,I dusted off Twmpmm course I bought in 1996.skimed through it ordered Twmpmm 2 ansewered three of the question's in the little test,needless to say Im back in Twmppm 1.Thanks for A Rich Mans Secret!!!!!
at 6:28:22 PM
Thank YOU, upsdriver. Glad you came back and welcome aboard!
California Blue Rose asks:
I took the time to watch the interview you did on TV, three weeks ago, on historic trees it was facinating and an inspiration, I assume that commodities has given you the time for such an interesting hobby?
at 6:30:09 PM
Glad you tuned in and saw that, California Blue Rose. Peter Jennings did a nice job on that story, didn't he? (Check the ABC News website for an article.) Yes, commodities has allowed me a lifestyle that I never ever would have even dreamt of.
PEPPER asks:
HELLO KEN THIS IS VERY NEW FOR US HUBBY AND I HAVE MADE MONEY IN PAPER TRADING. MADE REAL MONEY IN JULY CORN THIS WEEK BUT DONT UNDERSTAND WHEN TO GET OUT
at 6:31:02 PM
I use 50% Retracement targets to tell me when to get out. Don't leave it up to your intuition! Thanks.
junket asks:
Hi Ken, Gold has been on the rise as of late. How high do think it can go? Are you long gold?
at 6:33:13 PM
Yes, junket, I'm long and waiting for the Monthly 50% of 560. Thanks!
truckin in Dallas asks:
Is sugar finally going to break out, Ken? I'm still papertrading and one of my papertrades is sugar and I'm long from 5.75, thanks!
at 6:34:08 PM
Yes, it will break out, truckin in Dallas. I'm long too and waiting . . . .
Kathie J asks:
Greetings everyone! I'm another newcomer to the chat room. Ken, do you have a rule of thumb for when to use a stop loss and when it's better to hedge with an option?
at 6:34:42 PM
No, Kathie J, that's up to each trader. Try paper trading it both ways and see which YOU prefer. Thanks.
brad asks:
Ken, where do I find those dark wrapper Monte Cristos you show us in your videos? You've been a valuable mentor, thank you.
at 6:35:23 PM
Those are Cuban, Brad, and you have to find your own source for those beauties (try Canada!). Thanks!
JohnN asks:
Hi Ken and thank you so much for everything! What is the front month?(dumb question?)
at 6:36:04 PM
Thanks, JohnN. It's the nearest daily contract (also called the "spot" or "cash" month).
DMC asks:
DMC, New York, NY. Are you in the Eurodollar market Ken? What are your thoughts on this market being so high?
at 6:36:35 PM
Yes, DMC. I'm short the Eurodollar BECAUSE it is so high.
kc asks:
Hi Ken, have you traded any markets other than in the US? ...like session markets in Japan ? Your comments, please... thanks!
at 6:36:58 PM
No, kc, America offers all I need . . . .
Bigguns asks:
Hi Ken, Bigguns here from Alberta, Canada Is the Tools of the Trade still available with a membership renewal? Any other Educational tools in the works? Thanks for everthing Buddy!
at 6:38:00 PM
Absolutely, Bigguns. And they're GREAT (if I do say so myself). Yes, lots of secret things are in the works . . . .)
tampamale1 asks:
Hi all I'm not yet trading. Studying religously, My question, What makes a successful trader? Following a formula/plan? A certain philosophical mindset? Studying your plan and the markets ? Blind Luck ?
at 6:38:56 PM
Hello Tampamale1. Good question. I'd say "Following a formula/plan."
Dean in Laguna Niguel, CA asks:
(Ahem)...I see we're off to a 'roaring' start tonight. When a particular market is not accepting Limit orders, should we trade it anyway with Market orders? (Why do I already know the answer to this...) Thanks!
at 6:39:46 PM
Hello Dean. I do.
mert asks:
Ken, do you think the Canadian Dollar and the Swiss Frank has topped out or do you think this is just a shake out?
at 6:41:28 PM
No, Mert, take a look at the Monthly Canadian Dollar chart: It's dragging along the bottom of the ocean! And look at the Swiss Franc's Weekly chart: I see a 50% rally coming. Thanks!
Jim asks:
Jim- Oakley, MI Is coffee ever gonna blast off? I've been waiting for a long time now!! Love your courses, they've changed my life for the better!! Thanks.
at 6:41:56 PM
Thanks, Jim. Me too. Yes, Coffee will take off.
johnl asks:
I'm about to start paper trading seriously and have been in discussions with a few brokers. One of them is pestering me about getting in on the "expected rise in corn". I told him I wouldn't be trading for about 2-3months but he keeps trying to entice me. My gut feeling is to forget him as he keeps trying to go against what I am being taught. What is your advice?
at 6:42:52 PM
Go with your gut, Johnl!
TahoeClay asks:
Hi Ken and Crew, I am looking forward to your birthday boot camp in August, and have already paid for half the tuition, with gains that I pulled out of coffee when I rolled May into July. Do you ever roll your contracts into a further out mont? Example: Rolling a May coffee to September instead of July? Just wondering if when I must roll my July Coffee, if I should be looking past sept. and going for Dec. coffee? Great chats!!!I gain so much from these....!!
at 6:44:23 PM
Thanks, TahoeClay. Looking forward to meeting you at the August Boot Camp! We always have a GREAT time. Yes, you can roll out as far as your broker can get orders filled.
Eric, Seattle WA asks:
Have you ever tried adding contracts on the way down, after going long on a 1-2-3 formation? Meaning, if the price drops below the entry price, each extra position has a better risk to reward ratio. Sort of a reverse pillar effect.
at 6:45:29 PM
Yes, Eric. If you budget allows, you can dollar-cost-average down and gain a lower and lower entry point. But it all depends upon your budget. Thanks.
Ruxpin asks:
Ken, you've said that when markets make new lows, you buy more...Have you bought more rice lately??
at 6:46:26 PM
Yes, Ruxpin. Take a look at those Monthly and Weekly Rice charts!
truckstop asks:
Hi Ken Truckstop here in B.C. Just thought I'd let you know I was in Grants Pass the end of April and stopped in at your office building. Had a short tour and a coffee. Pretty impressive place I must say. Just wish I could have stayed longer and asked more questions. Nice town, easy to get around and good campsites. Still trucking though. When are you coming to Vancouver? Or even Edmonton or Calgary would do. Can sure use a boost in my techniques but still hanging in there.
at 6:47:42 PM
Canada's always on the must-visit list, Truckstop, because Cuban cigars are legal there!
tom k asks:
Do you ever do "day trades" in markets that are not making formations or have yet to make retracements just to get the "feel" for them?
at 6:48:05 PM
Nope. All my trading is long-term, Tom K.
vball asks:
vball from connecticut; hi ken, did you notice the july 03 800 sugar calls going for 9 and 10 cents. i thought those were great prices for a 14 month option. thanks ken
at 6:48:59 PM
I'd bid half that amount, vball, and wait awhile to see if I get filled. Try it!
jeff asks:
hello Ken, if you pyramid contracts,is it better to do this in one particular month, or can you spread them out into farther out contracts? thanks!
at 6:49:40 PM
You can spread it out among several months, Jeff. (But try it on paper first . . . .)
hsimpson asks:
Ken, what do you consider a good cheap price for a may o3 coffee option? I just paid 100 points last week.
at 6:50:13 PM
Depends on what strike price you bought.
asks:
I'm unable to find the questions and answers that are being asked and answered. How do I do this on my computer?
at 6:50:49 PM
!
experimentor asks:
Hi Ken. Should I listen to my broker when he tells me not to trade a market that's very thinly traded? I wanted to buy a put(s) on the Mexican Peso and didn't for this reason.
at 6:51:59 PM
In the case of options, Experimentor, even if yours is the ONLY option that exists in that market, that's just fine. So go ahead and place that open order to purchase that option. If it's filled, you're good to go!
TryingToBePatient asks:
I have been reading in recent chats that you recommend using the nearest month to determine your entry, exit and 50% retracements, but to trade a further out month. How does this work if the nearest month indicates I should enter at 4150 and the farther out month is currently trading at 4350, etc.? Do I just wait for the nearest month to hit the 50% then get out regardless of what my trading month looks like? This makes it so much harder!
at 6:52:54 PM
That's correct, TryingToBePatient. (But I think it makes it easier . . . .). Thanks!
Howard - Austin Texas asks:
Ken, I just had a successful trade in July sugar going long at 5.21 with a Oct. Put option at 5.00 for protection. I got out at 5.75 per my plan with a limit order. It looks like it is going to continue to go up. I plan to get back in when it goes back down. What do you think ?
at 6:53:46 PM
I think you should stick to your plan, Howard. You've got a sweet trade going on!
patient in pa asks:
Hi Ken, I really look forward to these chats. I am also looking forward to the day when my coffee and eurodollar options pay off. I'm hanging in there until they do. This has definitely helped develop patience for me. Thanks for sending me that first booklet back in Feb '99 and getting me started in this business.
at 6:54:45 PM
Thanks Patient! Patience is a virtue . . . .
Eric in Fort Worth asks:
Responding to "Truckin in Dallas", I would say that Sugar HAS broken out. I bought yesterday when the market broke past the #2 point and downtrend line, and am looking for at least a daily 50% retracement. Looks good. I bet you're also long Sugar?
at 6:54:59 PM
Yes.
larry asks:
Hi Ken: I'd like to get into Coffee, should I wait for a 1-2-3 formation or am I chasing a moving bus. Old cotton Mouth
at 6:55:26 PM
Hello Larry. I'd shop those cheap call options now . . . .
Tigger T Bounce asks:
Ken ... what can you say to an individual who trades just for the fun of it and not the money ?
at 6:55:37 PM
Have fun!
sean asks:
Ken-question here on money management. How much captial should a beginning trader commit to a trade in proportion to his actual account balance? 10%? 20%? Thanks.
at 6:56:58 PM
Check with a Course Counselor to direct you to my "How to Budget" Report.
California Blue Rose asks:
Here I am again- I have studied and paper traded on Twmpm1, I would like to start trading one or two contracts with real money or would you suggest waiting until I do TWMPM2 and start with options??????
at 6:57:42 PM
I'd suggest studying TWMPMM II options and THEN make up your mind. Thanks!
Dean in Laguna Niguel, CA asks:
Wait..."going with your gut" is not counter-intuitive! (just kidding) Real question: I've heard you say that there is no reason to exercise an option. But wouldn't there be good reason to do so if you could profit more (i.e., exercise a call option and sell the futures contract in certain cases)? Maybe I'm missing some math here? Thanks
at 6:59:01 PM
Hello Dean! No, I've never seen it work out that way, so I have to stick to my statement that "I don't know a good reason to ever exercise an option." You da man!
Trips22 asks:
Hi Ken, What is your opinion on Lumbar. On the weekly chart it completed 50% retracement and went up and now it seems to be forming a triangle. Do you think it is headed up or it it time to sit on the side line for now. I have been in this market for almost one year and just breaking even. Thanks for all your help.These monthly chats are so encouraging when thing are slow or moving against me.
at 7:00:31 PM
Thanks Trips22. I'm on the sidelines in Lumber now, waiting for new lows to occur.
prodigalsun asks:
Hi Ken,You've said in past chats to price options and when you find what you feel to be a cheap price-bid half that. Do I have that right and does this apply across the board? I find it hard to believe, for example, that the current prices on Mar 03 Coffee calls at a strike of whatever, have a chance of coming down 50%. Thanks for being!
at 7:01:29 PM
Yes, Prodigalsun, you're reading that right. Try it (and it'll probably happen)! Thanks.
Russ - Malibu asks:
Dude: It's great to hear your voice again! Nothing like a little one-on-one chat to connect Grant's Pass with the beautiful surf 'n sand in Malibu. First, a word about "stop losses". I hate them! I'm convinced that as soon as I put one on it is blasted around the entire trading floor with loud speakers and flashing red neon lights! It's absolutely guaranteed that I will immediately be stopped out regardless of the distance from the current price I place the stop! I see why you never use them. Solution: I now tell my broker where I want to get out if a trade turns against me, but instead of placing an actual stop on the trading floor for everyone to see, he is instructed to keep his eyes on the price movement and if it gets close to my stop he must call me. This way no ruthless trader can ambush me for a quick buck! I also monitor US Carts (online) and the CBOT live feed ($10.00 per month). It works. I don't like it when people take advanage of my good nature!
at 7:03:06 PM
You ARE da man, Russ. That's what I do too. My broker and I call these "silent" stops. Thanks!
TraderOne23 asks:
Howdy Ken, Karen from Sunny St.Pete,FL. Last year my husband and I came up to visit you and the Ken Roberts Co. to wish YOU a Happy Birthday and enjoyed the wonderful new course members lounge. If you remember we brought you a picture of our New VW-Passat that was purchased with Soybeans and Cocoa. I have enjoyed trading so much I decided to leave the medical profession to become a Commodity Broker. I want to help others trade as successfully as I have traded, the Ken Roberts way. I might add, when I tried to trade my own ways, I paid for it! Your techniques really do work and I plan on teaching my clients what I learned from you. Thanks a MILLION!
at 7:04:12 PM
Thank YOU, TraderOne23! Yes, I certainly do remember that picture. Good for you, and thanks for staying in touch.
Nicole asks:
Those crazy long spikes, such as in Plantium weekly in April 2000, do you ignore those when figuring 50%?
at 7:04:57 PM
No, Nicole! Those are what I call "Footprints on the moon," meaning that those spikes ARE actual prices.
WILLBE asks:
WILLBE from miami asks:Ken have you ever known of some people going short and long at the same time?. Obiously same market and different months; and will this be something of a strategy.And by the way ken thanks to you i am out of the daily graind and like you a did direct selling for twenty years.(For the most part when i go to work if i do is on my pijamas.Ken i could never thank you enough.
at 7:06:08 PM
Thank YOU Willbe! Yes, that's called "spread" trading, but I don't do it (why limit profit potential?).
donnie asks:
Ken, Who buys $50,000.00 options? Thanks, donnie
at 7:06:53 PM
Someone who's on the wrong side of the futures market and locking in losses! (Pretty neat, huh?!)
DavidM asks:
Ken, what coffee month and strike are you currently pricing. And would you trade the mini coffee contracts now.
at 7:08:17 PM
May 150s, DavidM. I haven't traded the new mini coffee contracts, but nothing wrong with monitoring them for awhile first.
tiny asks:
I thought Cocoa would have droped by now.Instead it just keeps rising.what do you think
at 7:09:57 PM
I'm still long Cocoa, Tiny, waiting for its Monthly chart to make the 50% retracement. Thanks!
Donna asks:
Sure would be great if you could tour Western North Carolina in the near future. Donna
at 7:10:39 PM
I love the Carolina's, Donna, and I'm sure we'll be back . . . . Thanks!
Mr. Coffee asks:
Looks like Sugar is starting a 50% retracement now. Whatdya think?
at 7:11:15 PM
I agree (and I'm long). Thanks!
Gypsy Woman asks:
"Are you in the market or are you not in the market?" I have some Sept. 100 calls in Coffee and also some 120 calls in Dec. I have the ability to "wait it out", but wonder if I've already missed the boat! Should I have liquidated 1/2 of my Sept. options - doesn't appear to me that it reached the Daily 50% and I was only getting close to being in the $$$! Thanx!
at 7:13:28 PM
You're doing it just right, Gypsy Woman. Coffee didn't hit its daily 50% yet. (And realize that your options may NEVER go in-the-money and you can still profit!) Thanks!
PEPPER asks:
KEN, I GOT INTO CORN IN A SIDE CHANNEL. HOW DO YOU CACULATE THE %50 RETRACEMENT IN THIS MARKET? THANKS TRYING TO UNDERSTAND
at 7:15:48 PM
Daily (July) 50% = 232. Weekly = 235. Monthly = 360.
Ninja asks:
Ken, Since many of the options expire worthless would it be better to trade one or two futures contracts with a limited account balance? Many of the options I have been pricing seem expensive right now and I dont want to deplete my account. What to do?????
at 7:16:25 PM
When those options are cheap, bid half that amount and wait. That's what I'd do. Thanks!
Jim from Kalamazoo, MI asks:
Hi, Ken. I just got home from work and joining the chat now. Euro$ puts are so cheap, I am not sure which ones to buy and when to buy. Now looks real good. What do you have as a daily and weekly 50% target?
at 7:18:31 PM
Hi, Jim, and welcome! Daily (June)= 9642. Weekly = 9565. When YOU find the premiums to be cheap, bid half and wait. That's what I do.
TryingToBePatient asks:
Thanks for the course, the inspiration, the dreams and the great chats! I bought the course several years ago, have read it over and over, paper traded off and on for over a year and I finally opened my account on April 1 (just for grins!) I lost on my first two trades, got stopped out once couldn't meet the margin call on the other and learned the best lessons on both! I'm long rough rice and trying real hard to be patient and get that first long-anticipated profitable trade (hence the username). I protected with an option this time! Was wondering why not enter the market right after the #3 point is formed rather than waiting for the #2? Thanks again!
at 7:21:50 PM
I think what you mean is "Why not enter the market right after the #3 point forms rather than wait for a BREAKOUT beyond the #2 point." If that's what you mean, you can try that, but I think you'll find that too many times the market will falter and go on to make another #1 point, thus stopping you out. But try your plan on paper and see how it goes. Thanks!
WDDeVoe asks:
To Tigger T. Bounce from WDDeVoe in Salem, Ma.: I wish it was fun for ME to trade -- I find this process arduous. Not real-money trading yet. If this were fun (for me), I'd be a more conscientious paper trader.
at 7:22:47 PM
Make it fun, WDDeVoe. (Maybe you're too detailed?)
green asks:
Hi Ken! Re option spreads...If you'd repeatedly watched options expire worthless and had next to nothing left in your account would you consider trading option spreads, taking smaller bites, until you'd built up your acccount again? You asked if it's easy being green. Sometimes, yes, when you're growing and lush and no body mows you down but, no, not if you're sea sick or "you know what" with envy or overdoing it with environmental conscience and stepping of toes of landowners and recreators etc.. I'm none of those things right now...just expounding.
at 7:24:34 PM
Boy, it surely isn't easy being green! Sounds like it's BUSY being green! No, I wouldn't do option spreads. I'd wait for REALLY CHEAP options in a particular market (like Eurodollars now) and work with those. Thanks!
nev-walt asks:
Hi Ken, Lets say the daily 50% is hit, but thru time decay, selling the option would net a loss, and with 3-4 months to go, do you go for the weekly 50% and hope its profitable by then??
at 7:25:43 PM
If my option(s) gets within one month of expiration, I shop and place an order for my second round. I never want to be NOT in the market!
California Blue Rose asks:
Ken, I want to thank you and your staff for these chats, I look forward to them, I not only enjoy them but I learn a lot from my fellow seasoned traders. Are you going to be at "Talks in the Pines"?
at 7:26:19 PM
Absolutely, California Blue Rose! See you there! (Check out www.guyfinley.com for details.)
HiloHI local asks:
Hi Ken! Been using you're courses for 3 years now, but never bothered to chat. When does the front month change? at FND or LTD? Waiting persistently & patiently for Coffee, Cotton & Copper to sky again! Thanks! HiloHI local
at 7:27:01 PM
Good goin', HiloHI! Last Trading Day.
Ruxpin asks:
What about Single Stock Futures?
at 7:27:28 PM
Haven't seen any charts on these yet, Ruxpin, but show me a chart and I'll trade it!
experimentor asks:
Ken, you don't do futures spreads because of profit limit potential. How about option spreads?
at 7:27:38 PM
Ditto.
Craig asks:
KEN, Howdy from rainy Ohio, I am a bonafide futures trader (Thanx to Ken Roberts ) now sold my chiropractic practice up 30k this year so far. My question, of your students out there that do it full time whats an average time frame to a million + account. I will not be denied!
at 7:28:30 PM
Good for you, Craig! I don't have stats on this, but let's hear from some others out there . . . .
Dave asks:
Ken, Irvine Dave again. Kathie J beat me with the question re stops vs option hedges. Just want to let you know your paper charts are the greatest. Sure is great to be able to carry my office and work in my hip pocket.
at 7:28:59 PM
Yes, it's super, isn't it?! Thanks Dave.
jpron asks:
I know thism sounds simplistic, but if you were watching a commodity, got in at a long time low, and you calculated where you had enough to cover if it fell almost to zero, you couldn't lose, could you?
at 7:29:56 PM
Not as long as you could keep rolling into farther-out contracts if necessary until that market made its move up. Pretty neat, huh?!
Richard asks:
Richard from Tampa: Ken I finally realized the importance of NO stops.Since 3/02 5 positions all correct to trend,positions, all stopped out, some by mere 50 points, loss $4000, no stops, profit $28000 and still active. I am learning! Thanks Ken, Richard
at 7:30:22 PM
Good going, Richard! Trade on!
TahoeClay asks:
Hey Ken and Crew: Where can I buy the "Paper Chart Scent" as a cologne? It really turns on my wife when I smell like I have been pouring over my charts.....?
at 7:31:02 PM
Hey! Great idea, TahoeClay! Let's see what I can come up with . . . .
green asks:
Hello again, Ken. Do you think that Feeder Cattle have nearly played out or goin' down more? This is probably one of your crystal ball questions...
at 7:32:26 PM
I'm still short and waiting for that Monthly 50% target of 6950.
The Jack of Trades asks:
From Union City, GA---Hello, Ken: I've made money in Oats, lost a little in Cotton, and I'm just having a blast in general. Got into Corn when everybody else was bored with it; now I have a big smile on my face (I know where it's heading)! Thanks for teaching us the benefits of being a contrarian!
at 7:34:12 PM
Alright, Jack of Trades! Thanks!
Quick break . . . . Be right back.
Patiently waiting asks:
Hi, Ken. I just arrived home from a meeting and haven't had a chance yet to read questions and answers so far so I hope this does not cover "old territory." Sorry if it does! I bought 2 October sugar call options in February and they have not really done anything yet except go down. In April I decided to buy 2 October sugar put options to at least partially "cover" myself. They have gone down, too! I still think sugar is going to go up and I have nearly 120 days until they expire. What would you advise in the meantime?
at 7:39:01 PM
Stay long with cheap calls!
Moose asks:
Hi Ken and crew, from Illinois. Just want to say "thank you." and keep up the great work. Also, I want to be like you Ken when I grow up, if I do. Thanks a million.
at 7:39:28 PM
Good one, Moose! Thanks . . . .
Wayne asks:
Hi Ken. I'm confused now. You just told Tiny that you are long cocoa and waiting for the monthly 50% retracement. But, in your last TWMPMM 1 Alert Line, you are watching July Cocoa forming a 123 top, after which, I assume you will be putting in an order to sell a contract? This seems like a contraadiction to me. What am I missing?
at 7:41:01 PM
How to spell contradiction, Wayne (there's only one "a" in it!). No, really, the Alert-Line! trade is short-term trading. And I, personally, just trade long-term now. Paper trade both and see how this works. Thanks.
freddy asks:
hi ken, first time on chat, long time reader of chat archives..am i really on chat live now??
at 7:41:18 PM
Yes you are, Freddy. And welcome!
Ruxpin asks:
Ken, will Euroyen ever tank? This may be the year....Stupid news says Jap gov't seems to be on a rebound, maybe central bank will get act together and raise rates and re-furb their banking system? Or, yeah, it looks real toppy. Are you short?
at 7:41:47 PM
Yes I am (and have been for years now!).
Pqhpat asks:
Hi! Ken, I'm your yogi friend. I have been following up on your chats. They're such a great encouragement to me during the preceding months when I was almost ready to give up on commodities trading after almost three years of trading with dismal results ( I'm trading options). But now that I've shifted to futures, it seems that fortune seems to start smiling at me. My pressing question right now is: Is it safe to buy another July corn futures contract let's say at 220 after having entered the contract at 208, and buying a corresponding put option as protection?
at 7:43:00 PM
No, that's just fine, Pqhpat. That put option is your insurance for doing so. Glad you hung in there.
George asks:
Ken: In your paper charts, would you consider printing a 50% line in the monthly (and maybe weekly) charts since it doesn't change that much from week to week? Thank you I think your charts are already great!
at 7:43:26 PM
No, George, that's what the red pen's for!
MooCow asks:
Thanks for the course.... It's the greatest thing EVER! A couple of years ago I was long coffee and made over $27,000 in just over two weeks ( ON ONE CONTRACT ). I had started trading for about three months. I have a testimony of your course, Ken. IT WORKS! I also know how easy it is to become involved with your broker and start to listen to him. I didn't do so well while listening to him and regret it. I've cooled off for a while and am going to make a come-back. All I can say is: YOU'RE THE GREATEST KEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
at 7:44:31 PM
And you are super intelligent, MooCow. Thanks!
D asks:
Hi Ken. Thank you so much for your courses. I have a July Sugar 650 Call option. Sugar may be making a move now but the option expires in a month. Should I take my chances on it moving before then or should I buy another option and if so which month. Thanks.
at 7:45:13 PM
Now's the time to price more calls as far out as available now and then bid cheap. Stick to it . . . .
prodigalsun asks:
Ken, do you place less faith in commodities that have only recently been established. For example, the LIBOR and euroyen started out very low, relatively speaking, and with only a 10 or twelve year track record, do you confidently use those beginning prices when determing 50% retracements? 2 Gulfstreams, huh?!!! WOW!!!
at 7:47:08 PM
Yes, I think I do go a little more slowly with new markets until we see some more history. Rice, for example. But the LIBOR and Euroyen are interest rate markets, so you know what you're getting with these. (When Euroyen's at 99, for example, who cares how much history there is?) Good question. Thanks.
Jeromes tale asks:
Why did you create Advanced Technique for Success (A.T.S.) ?
at 7:48:55 PM
Because that is THE SECRET, Jeromes tale. EVERY successful person I know or have ever heard of went through what A.T.S. teaches. It's my BEST course (but also the least popular! But success isn't common either!). Great question.
trwtrader asks:
Ken, How do you negotiate lower commissions on options that are real cheap. I can't see paying $100 commission on a $10 premium. Thanks.
at 7:49:35 PM
I can't either, trwtrader. And tell that to your broker. If s/he doesn't provide some relief, find one who will!
hk asks:
Hi!
at 7:49:43 PM
Hi!
newbie asks:
Hey Ken, my option orders aren't being hit. Do you ever "inch up" your bid to meet the market?
at 7:50:05 PM
Once in a great while, but not often. Hang in there . . . .
Beth asks:
Beth-Maryville,TN. Hi Ken. I'm a very new student about to start paper trading. All I have purchased and can afford to purchase right now is TWMPMM I. You offer so much more in regard to information about trading. Is it safe to start out with only TWMPMM I under my belt, or am I missing some very important piece of the puzzle without the other resources? You know, what you don't know can hurt you. Thanks a lot. I have been very impressed with the service I have received from your company.
at 7:51:42 PM
Thanks, Beth. Great question. No, you don't NEED any other Course after TWMPMM I. Yes, what you don't know can hurt you, and that's where paper trading comes in. Take what you learn in TWMPMM I and start charting! Stay in touch . . . .
TryingToBePatient asks:
Response to WDDeVOE: I know how you feel. I am an accountant by trade and though I understand numbers, I found it difficult to comprehend at first and therefore I didn't like it and only paper traded infrequently. Keep trying! After several years of puttering around and re-reading the manual I am finally catching on and I LOVE IT! If you are like me, frustration keeps you from enjoying it. It really is easy once it clicks in your brain! Hope this helps.
at 7:52:26 PM
I hope so too, TryingToBePatient. Thanks for sharing your insight.
rktech asks:
hiya Ken, perhaps the next title for a seminar could be Ken and the Zen of commodities trading...hehehe...love your approach, thanks !!
at 7:52:41 PM
Good one!
DavidM asks:
Ken, for those who doubt I just look at a monthly chart like coffee, cotton, or rice. The 50% retracements are huge! My heart beats much faster no matter how slow things are going. Today I got a $400 margin call. So what! When coffee goes to $1.85 a pound, I'll be laughing at $400. Thanks, Ken, I learned this from you.
at 7:53:09 PM
Right on, DavidM. You da man!
Resilverer asks:
Hi Ken. Converse, IN. here. When you first started did you trade one contract at a time or multiples. Second, do you have any idea how many trades you have executed in your career?
at 7:53:54 PM
1) One at a time. 2) Thousands and thousands (but I don't know exactly how many thousands. Good night!
hsimpson asks:
ken, let me rephrase my question,do you think 50 points is cheap for may 03 150 coffee call options?
at 7:55:12 PM
Because I've followed coffee for so many years, yes, I know that 50 points is cheap in coffee. But I'd still bid half that amount because this pays off for me. Try it.
moneyrules asks:
hey ya'll ,this is the ex-da'man. i was sitting with over 45 130 oat puts for the longest time, didn't buget for two rounds ... and well the rest hurts to much to talk about ! also i was long july cotton from 3588, made $900.00 first day....that was cool until hell opened...i now have stop buy at 36 on july cotton..patience my friends.
at 7:55:48 PM
Good advice, Moneyrules. Thanks.
Gypsy Woman asks:
GYPSY WOMAN: THANX FOR DOIN' THE CHATS - I HAVE LEARNED LOTS OF STUFF - ACTUALLY KNEW IT, BUT THE WAITING WAS WEARING - PART OF THE LESSON - NEEDED THE BOOST SO I CAN SOAR INTO THE COFFEE WAVE AND THE SUGAR ALONG WITH IT! 'CIAO TILL NEXT TIME...
at 7:56:09 PM
Thanks!
celtic twang asks:
Ken,do u day trade ??
at 7:56:18 PM
Nope.
apobao asks:
..just wondering, do you still looks like that handsome devil on your course's video or you've gotten better with age.
at 7:56:45 PM
Better, apobao, much, much better! You should see me now!
Jim from Kalamazoo, MI asks:
Do you have any pets? I have a cat that is trying to boot me out of your chat room.
at 7:57:54 PM
Yes, Jim, I have a 9-month-old Bernese Mountain dog named Churchill (and he's tipping the scales at 96+ pounds so far!). He doesn't trade yet . . . .
(Churchill just finished his paper training . . . .)
(I had him working on my old charts . . . .)
Wayne asks:
From Birch Bay, Wa. Hi Ken. I am new at this and just wondering, are the markets slow right now, or am I just being impatient? Seems like several commodities have been at lows or highs, starting to make 123 formations, then something happens to ruin the formation and I cancel my orders (Paper trading orders). Is this normal?
at 7:59:23 PM
Yes, Wayne. Welcome to commodities . . . .
lynn asks:
Can a narrow sideways channel on a monthly chart be used to anticipate a 123 on a daily chart?
at 7:59:49 PM
Yes, lynn.
ML asks:
When you started trading did you ever just “take” profits or did you always get out with a stop loss?
at 8:00:37 PM
In my early trading days, I must confess that I did just "take" profits out of sheer joy (but don't tell anybody) . . . .
pmarotta asks:
Ken--Saw your Tree Collection on TV--Wow.
at 8:00:54 PM
!
Maui Trader asks:
Hi Ken, how can I be just like you?
at 8:01:41 PM
I don't think you want to be just like me, Maui Trader. As Whitman said, "Imitation is suicide." Be yourself!
truckin in Dallas asks:
Hi Ken--I just wanted to let you know that your teaching style is great--After watching a video or listening to a tape, I'm always ready to learn more. Just finished TWMPMM One and ordered TWMPMM Two options program, got it in the mail this afternoon.
at 8:02:00 PM
Thanks, truckin!
Well that's it for another month. Here are my favorite web sites if you're interested: www.guyfinley.com ; www.LP.org ; www.uschartco.com ; www.fourstarbooks.com. ; (new!) www.historictrees.org. My next chat will be Tuesday, June 11. Also remember Matt's stock and commodity chat Tuesday, May 21. And join Guy Finley's chat Thursday, June 6 at 6:30 PM Pacific Time. (And visit his site at any time to read inspiring quotes and sign up to receive a free spirit-lifting weekly Key Lesson by e-mail.) As always: Use these newfound powers only for Good. Good night!
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