Ken Roberts Chat


Here I am charting in our Company Trading Lounge. (Say, do you know who's sitting behind me in front of the fireplace? I keep trying to have a conversation with him, but he keeps ducking me. [I think he's some quack from California!]) (If you're an Ultimate Technique for Success Course Member, here's proof that I'm working on this month's Task too --- I'm not holding back in TWO ways here! Can you spot them? [If you're not a UTS Member, you should be!])
Last night's Let's Talk Trading Chat was so lively and filled with special items that I'm not going to list the "highlights" for you here this month --- there are too many! So get right to it and see how our jam-packed evening went! Last Night's Chat Archive
Onward & Upward! P.S. We still have a few time slots open for interviews on our upcoming Trading Strategy video tapings. I'd love to hear YOUR trading experiences and stories too! Please email me at info@kroberts.com. Thanks! (Hey --- UTS Members: This fits in perfectly with our task this month, doesn't it?! Here's your chance to break out . . . .)

NOTE: If you no longer wish to be notified of our chats, please go to chat.kenroberts.net, scroll down the page, enter your e-mail address in the box provided, and then click the "Remove" button located below the box. If you would like to report a change in your e-mail address and continue receiving notification of our chats, simply delete your old address as outlined above, and then enter your new address.

Let's Talk Trading (tm) with Ken Roberts
from May 10, 2005

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Wow! I thought tonight would never get here! This monthly Chat with you is a real highlight in my month! So thanks for being here, and welcome aboard!

Ive got a Fuente Robusto fired up, we've got some Mother's Day cake that Chelsea baked, the Cafe Altura coffees poured, so lets talk commodities!

NOTE!!! When commenting on one of my Courses, please identify WHICH ONE. Also, when relating trading experiences and/or results, please give details: Futures contracts, options, options AND futures, etc. This helps others follow along and learn from your experience too.

Dean in Laguna Niguel, CA asks:
Hi Ken, I hope you enjoyed my (smart-aleck) photo captions. Question for you on Futures contracts: If I hedge every futures contract with an option, do I still have a margin requirement for the contracts? Thanks!

at 6:18:55 PM
I believe the brokerage you're trading with has the final say, but generally what you're asking about is called S-P-A-N (Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk). This is a software program the clearing houses run every trader's account through each night to determine risk, margin, hedging, etc.

So generally, if your hedging option is AT your futures contract's entry pricem, you would have no margin requirement (since you've handled all risk by purchasing this option). But do check with your broker to be certain. Good question!

(Re: Your "smart-aleck" photo caption, see the following . . . .)

Be sure to enter our Chat Photo Caption Contest!
(Dr. Ellie says "We sure have some feisty Course Members --- we can't use most of these entries!")

DrMike522 asks:
My biggest confusion as I am learning the art of trading is how do you pick out your stop points. I notice that there are different points that you choose in planning out your strategy

at 6:27:30 PM
This is a completely SUBjective question, DrMike522 --- it's an art, not a science. (Did you see my "It Just Happened . . ."(tm)(Update) I sent out today? In it, I questioned three of my active-trader friends and got three different responses! And they're all professional traders! So pick just ONE from our WGB Trading Strategy guides and practice trading with it to see if it "fits" you and your style.
To see it, Click Here!

bivona asks:
Hi Ken, are you trading options only at this point? Or are you still trading both?

at 6:27:50 PM
Both, bivona, but more options now than ever!

Mike From Atlantic City asks:
Hello Ken, My apple tree out back is blossoming beautifully, How are your trees doing? Thank you Mike from A C

at 6:29:03 PM
Ours are already leafed out and fruit-set! (That sounded impressive, didn't it, Mike? Actually, Krista's sitting right here next to me and she told me that!) We're expecting a bumper crop this year!

andy asks:
Why do you use the weekley chart to arrive at the 50% for your targets?

at 6:31:10 PM
I have a near-term target (the Active Futures Month Daily chart), and then secondary (Weekly and sometimes Monthly) targets, anticipating the big moves. By the way, we're just finishing up on my brand new 50% Retracement video DVD, and here's a preview clip . . . !

(Hey! Are we good, or what?!)

Paul from PA asks:
Hi Ken, Just for the sake of argument, suppose my gypsy fortune teller told me that a particular commodity would reverse it's current trend and make a significant move beginning within the next week and lasting about two weeks. Assuming that I believed her, would I make the most profit from futures, short-term options, or long term options?

at 6:36:05 PM
Good question, Paul from PA, but no one can answer that (unless they're a gypsy fortune teller!). Options can actually make MORE money on an equivalent move in the futures market because VOLATILITY can kick in and ADD to those gains.

But, alas, I don't have a crystal ball or a gypsy fortune teller. (But before you act on her advice, check her portfolio!)

I want to share this email I received this week with you:

"Just wanted you to know I returned yesterday from a week-long vacation to the Sheraton Waikiki in Hawaii. I went down to the business center to check on my email and see the latest in US Charts online. When I logged onto the US Charts page, there were 37 other people who had previously logged onto that site on the computer I was using in the Sheraton (you know how it saves your log-on name). Thats just the ones that did not erase their log-on name when they left (as I did).

So, apparently, your students know how to live the good life. Just thought youd like to know."

Rick
( Malibu, CA)

mickey-ite asks:
Mikey-ite in Salem asking if you ever set weekly, monthly or quarterly income goals at any point in your career (I need to show my wife a consistent income so she'll let me do this for a living). I realize that paper trading and MY business plan hold the ultimate answers here, but just curious as to your perspective based on your experience. Thanks Ken.

at 6:40:22 PM
Good plan, mickey-ite, but evertytrader I've ever known (including myself) simply got in there and traded and whatever happened happened. Trading, by its very nature, is not predictable in that sense --- it's more like a roller coaster!

geoker asks:
Hi. i saw a reference to "euro currency" but could not find a chart for it. Is that "Euro FX" I believe?

at 6:41:51 PM
Yes, that's correct, geoker. And what is the Euro Currency? It's the relatively new "group" currency of Europe (consisting of some 12 European countries).

Dean in Laguna Niguel, CA asks:
Hi Ken and Co....Question on "funny"mentals: Although I believe in trend trading, it seems like it's virtually impossible to get in at the base of a big move (I may be wrong, that's my paper-trading experience). Can't some, seeeeeeelective fundamentals be a valuable enhancment to technical trading? Aren't there situations where fundamental information gives clues to big moves? Thanks!

at 6:42:57 PM
None that I've ever found, Dean, but give it a paper-trading try and let us know! (Hey? Anyone out there tonight found the "secret" to fundamental trading . . . ?)

JG asks:
In many of your examples you state you bought a contract or two. Do you ever buy 10 or 30 or more contracts at a time when you really see an big time market shaping up? I'm just curioius for when I may have the resources to "Go Big" one day. JG, Lake Stevens, WA

at 6:45:42 PM
Sure, JG. When to "bulk up" on your options/futures contracts will just come naturally with time and experience in trading. I've been "flagged" many times by the CFTC and had to file "Position Reports."

Fed asks:
do I have to have a lot of money to start trading?

at 6:47:03 PM
No! Just a lot of paper! Paper trade, paper trade, paper trade until you find yourself saying "I'm tired of being right and not making any money on it" a LOT! Stay in touch, Fed, and let us know how it's going.

Russell Moss asks:
I can,t get any sound!

at 6:47:16 PM
Can you hear me now?

Jim from Kalamazoo, MI asks:
Hi, Ken. It's been a long time since I have traded commodities. What market would be a good market to paper trade right now?

at 6:48:32 PM
As many as you can handle, Jim! Trade the very next one that triggers any of the Trading Strategies found in the WGB Course. Then add more and more as you can handle them.

Irina asks:
Hello from Colorado Springs! I have been paper trading for almost 3 months now and so far I feel that I have done very well. I have been using your strategies and it worked very well. I am planning to go in the market next month and I am very excited. Thank you very much for all your guidence.

at 6:49:35 PM
You're VERY welcome, Irina. VERY well said! Congratulations. We'll look forward to future reports from you (VERY soon)!

mrosner asks:
Hi Ken. mrosner here from Hollywood (the original Hollywood), Florida. First I want to thank you for these chats. It is always a bright spot in the month. My question: When it comes time to roll- over a futures contract from the front month to a later month, what type of order to the broker do you usually use? Do you place separate buy and sell orders, or do you use a spread order, and why?

at 6:51:30 PM
Have your broker do this, mrosner, but it's either a "Market-to-Market" order or a "Limit-to-Limit" order. See why it's wise to have a great broker?!

Correy asks:
Hi Ken. Im not currently a member but I recently received a WGB booklet. I am interested in trading options and was wondering which path I should takethe WGB course or TOVI, which I have read a lot about in the chat archives. Thank you.

at 6:54:03 PM
Hello Correy --- glad you joined us! If you're brand new to options, I'd recommend the WGB Course. If you're experienced in options, you can probably jump right to TOVI (and will appreciate it so much more!).

moneylover asks:
hey ken are the brokers at refco really willing to work with newbies?

at 6:55:14 PM
Absolutely, moneylover! Go interview them!

John P asks:
Hi Ken , Now with online charts,do you ever use the paper charts anymore ? Or should we use both sets?

at 6:56:18 PM
I begin ALL my trading with paper charts, John P. --- I couldn't get by without them! (Did you watch that video clip we posted earlier here this evening of my new 50% Retracement video? There's PROOF!)

I am Andrew asks:
Good evening all. Just a couple of comments. Rosevelt,Rockefeller? Some tycoon said the best way to make money is not lose it. Good advice for our planning. 2nd point. Anybody that has not read Ken's "Rich mans secret" is short selling themselves something terrible. A fun read for the money but a wealth of valuable info inside the story. I let the title kind of put me off but wish I had read it along time ago. Thanks again Ken. Now I know I have to meet you someday.

at 7:01:48 PM
Thanks I am Andrew! Appreciate your kind comments. It's ALL an inside job, isn't it Andrew? Anyone can easily say "Buy" and "Sell", but when money's on the line, everything's different. So it's an "inside" or psychological job --- that's the place to begin. This is why my Ultimate Technique for Success Course is so powerful --- and so important! Even Sir John Templeton said "If you study spirituality (psychology), you'll be a better trader!" And he's considered the world's greatest investor! I know another wise and successful trader who, if given the choice between a psychological/spiritual book and a trading book, will pick the psychological/spiritual book every time. And there's a good reason for this . . . . (Please see the following:)

IrishRose asks:
Hi Ken! Glad to see you are producing another video/DVD. I always learn so much more from your videos than I do from just reading your manuals. Any plans to put your new strategies on video for those of us who need to see it in action before we truly get it? Keep up the great work!

at 7:06:50 PM
Yes, IrishRose! The Trading Strategies are next! Stay tuned . . . . Thanks!

orion machine asks:
Hey, Kenny! Danny in Grants pass oregon. just curious, when did you feel you were ready to teach others this trading business? By the way, visited the office today and saw all your old charts, getting ready for a feast eh? thanks ken.

at 7:09:25 PM
Yes! We're going to have a great big Company chart-boil! Glad you came by the Company --- did you see my Trading Lounge and Four Star Bookstore? When did I feel ready to teach others? Immediately!!! As I began learning commodities from the Deputy Sheriff I met, you couldn't keep me from telling anyone who would listen what I was discovering! Good question, thanks.

claudia asks:
Hi Ken...thank you so much for these chats...they are very informative. I took your course like 4 years ago and I am all of sudden finding myself in a situation where I would like to give it a go...what whould you recomend to me to get me started... I do some writing and I feel like you do when you look at a blank page and nothing comes to mind...thank you, Claudia.

at 7:14:57 PM
Welcome back Claudia! It's EASY to get started: Just go to the Members Center at www.kenroberts.com and click on the "Get Going!" icon. That'll get you goin'! Thanks.

contessanessa asks:
Do you suggest trading options with an internet program (trading platform) which you do all order entries yourself rather than using an actual broker person?

at 7:15:53 PM
I need an actual broker person myself, contessanessa, but I do know lots of traders who trade online. It's strictly personal.

asks:
Dear Ken, As I am not only a novice at trading, but also am just starting out with my first computer! It may take me a little longer to get through and learn it, but I will! Do you then give tips on selecting the best broker for my needs? Having fun, Rushwood

at 7:17:09 PM
Again, check that "Get Goin!" pdf in the Members Center. Good luck with that new computer!

bigdaddy225 asks:
i saw elvis in the mall this morning. i wanted to tell him how how excited i am about the worlds greatest business. thank you very much, ken!!

at 7:20:02 PM
Hey! Elvis was HERE today too! (But now he's left the building . . . .) Did you see him in the food court, the pharmacy, or the shoe store?

HARRY asks:
HI KEN, JUST STARTED PAPER TRADING. GOT IN ON YOUR OJ POSITION -- THINK SEPT. RECEIVED YOUR "IT JUST HAPPENED TODAY. SURE FEELS GOOD TO GET A FEW BUCKS. FEELS GOOD. STILL GOT LOTS TO LEARN.THANKS, HARRY O

at 7:21:19 PM
You're welcome, Harry! (But YOU made the trade . . . !) Glad those "It Just Happened . . ." emails are working.

gold dust asks:
Hi Ken. Love your site. I highly recommend the people at Refco. They are very helpful to newbies. How many carbs in those paper charts?

at 7:22:53 PM
Thanks Gold Dust! ALL the charts are very low carb (except sugar and corn, of course)! And be sure to avoid eating those heavy metals . . . .

Mario asks:
Hi Ken ! I was checking the December 2005 Oats chart and today closing price was 142, but if I switch to a weekly chart, then the closing price is different.

at 7:24:21 PM
Weekly charts are created from the Active Futures Month, Mario (and also realize that Weekly charts are updated on Fridays --- weekly).

eh- team asks:
Hi Ken, I'm from Alberta, Canada and I have been paper-trading since 2002 on and off. I made my first real trade in Oats and I must say that the WGB Alert-Line with TOVI and all your updates are so valuable. Thanks for all you do.

at 7:25:07 PM
(Great name, eh!) Thank YOU!

mickey-ite asks:
Mikey-ite in Salem asking: I have TWMPMM and Course as well as the video workshop and a subscription to WGB. Today I received an offer for ACTT. Is this new info, or do I possibly already have it in the material listed above? I want to learn as much as I need to, but how much is too much? Thanks Ken.

at 7:28:24 PM
Well only YOU can answer that one, mickey-ite (by the way, thanks for your email about my new Mickey Mouse --- see last month's Chat Archives if you haven't seen him yet).

ACTT is based on Ted Warren's book and teachings and, yes, it's different and expanded. (Please see the following:) Thanks!

Lets go Corn!! asks:
Hey Ken, Keep those Just Happened e-mails coming, there great!!

at 7:32:35 PM
Alright --- you got it, Lets go Corn!!

Lightning asks:
That was great! Pass the salt & pepper.

at 7:33:40 PM
(And a little Tabasco too!)

Randy asks:
Ken, I took your cours about 6 years ago ... am ready to trade again ... where is a good starting point?

at 7:34:08 PM
The "Get Going!" icon in the Members Center! Stay in touch, Randy!

BobB PA asks:
Aston PA - Good video! Charts and snacks, too!

at 7:34:35 PM
!

tampa trader asks:
hows the pencil on the hummer doing??

at 7:36:06 PM
(I can't say what everyone here in the classroom is coming up with, tampa trader!)

Lets go Corn!! asks:
hey ken, I just wanted to say that your advanced commodities courses are great!! I have become a Ted Warren freak! I bought his book , I now can see what the market is doing and what to do. Is corn in accumulation?

at 7:36:57 PM
Yes, Corn's in a "Ted Warren" base right now . . . !

james asks:
Ken, on your 17 minute video, which did not work for me, I heard you say that you did not like trading T Bonds, T Notes and T Bills, why is that?

at 7:39:09 PM
Wait, james: If it "did not work" for you, how do you know what I said on it . . . ? I'll have to think about this awhile (is this a trick question?)! T-Bonds, T-Notes, and (the former) T-Bills futures contracts traded in 32nds (which is very difficult for me to calculate). I was mostly kidding, however . . . .

thparsons asks:
china is selling copper, what to do? terry

at 7:43:53 PM
Well if you believe that "fundamental" information, thparsons, YOU would sell copper too. (But what do your charts tell you?)

DAVE asks:
DAVE IN WACOUSTA MI. KEN IS THERE ANYTHING THAT YOU KNOW OF THAT DRIVES A MARKET BESIDES SUPPLY AND DEMAND?

at 7:45:29 PM
Rumors, panic, and government intervention are three factors I can think of. (But you're not planning on losing sleep over this, are you, Dave . . . ?)

Harv asks:
Hi Ken, I'm a newbie to your program and commodities. My question on options on commodities and furtures is: Is there a delta for the options as on stocks for commodity options?

at 7:47:33 PM
Sure, Harv. "Delta" means "change" and in options, it's the ratio of an option's price to the underlying futures price. You'll soon see our Delta Options Trading Strategy information posted on the Ken Roberts website.

Amrit asks:
Somehow I do not seem to be able to get good fills at good prices, the way you do. Is it a matter of having a good broker? Thanks - Amrit

at 7:48:35 PM
Yes, that's a big part of it, Amrit. (He or she should be placing "limit" orders whenever possible . . . .) Have a talk with your broker.

hpate asks:
Could you talk abit about brokers requiring info before opening an account for trading options?

at 7:50:07 PM
Yes! It's about a 100-page application, hpate!

Are you receiving every email I send you??? Find out and be sure by clicking on the "Mailman Ken" logo in the Members Center. (Some email "service" providers and/or spam filters sometimes prevent my emails to you from being delivered! You should complain to them about this. But in the meantime, click on my logo to be sure you're receiving everything I send you.)

Russ-Malibu asks:
Ken, I forgot to tell you that for the the last year or so, I've been "specializing" in just a few markets. It's much easier for me to keep a good handle on a focused group. It might be helpful for some of your new traders to pick a couple of markets and learn them before going all over the board. I'm currently working Crude and Beans. I feel more comfortable trading a couple of markets and knowing their quirks so I can get in and out with profits (or small losses). I trade futures, not options, so I have to be really careful. (no stops like a real man)!

at 7:54:44 PM
Thanks Russ-Malibu!

Flyguy asks:
Ken, I did your course several years ago, I am just resigning up for another tour, what new things are you offering that I should put my focus on.

at 7:55:45 PM
You'll love my three new Trading Strategies, Flyguy! Stay in touch . . . .

tampa trader asks:
when placing a stop my broker says your entry into the market has to get filled first before placing the stop. im asuming this is correct

at 7:58:03 PM
Yes, tampa trader, that is correct. If your stop order were filled before your entry order, that stop could get trigged and you'd be in that market in the opposite direction than you planned! To my understanding, brokers actually place your stop order contingent upon your entry order being filled . . . .

sr asks:
Hi Ken, Tell DEan in Laguna Niguel that I've lost money on every single "fundamentals" trade I've tried. ps: Are you trading silver right now? It's been so choppy. Thanks to paper trading, I've managed to stay out of hot water.

at 7:59:42 PM
(Did you get this, Dean in Laguna Niguel?) Yes I'm trading silver now too, and yes, it has been choppy (along with a LOT of other markets too)!

TOVIJUNKIE asks:
Ken,I have been paper and Real $ trading since 1997.In the past year it is all finally coming into place.One of many of the wonderful aspects of trading is learning from every trade.If you take excellant notes and refer to them daily it is so easy to see your mistakes and learn from them.I have also learned that the emotional aspects can be kept to a minimum if you always "Plan Your Trade and Trade Your Plan".In this business you can only count on yourself and your own knowledge if you plan on being successful.I think all of your members would agree,that you and your team are the best!Thanks ,TOVIJUNKIE

at 8:00:36 PM
Thank YOU too, TOVIJUNKIE! (You sound like a UTS Course Member too . . . .)

WAYNE asks:
WAYNE FROM BULLHEAD: I GET YOUR "IT JUST HAPPENED" EMAILS ON MY CELL PHONE AT WORK, I CAN'T WAIT TO GET HOME TO FIND OUT WHAT JUST HAPPENED!

at 8:01:08 PM
That's neat, Wayne! Thanks!

DAVE asks:
DAVE IN WACOUSTA MI KEN ! I WON'T LOSE ANY SLEEP OVER WHAT DRIVES A MARKET BECAUSE YOUR COURSE TAUGHT ME TO FOLLOW THE CHARTS, THANX KEN AND CO.

at 8:01:31 PM
Good one, Dave! You get an "A+"!!!

DKnSJ asks:
After the initial Course, of course, ACTT unbelieveably useful. It doubles the opportunities where you can get in on some nice moves. I wished I'd have ordered it long before I did. I don't think there is a dya that goes by that I don't use what I learned in ACTT everyday. I've always been surprised that more isn't mentioned about it.

at 8:02:34 PM
(Did you get that mickey-ite?) Thanks DKnSJ!

Bonita Joe asks:
Ken-When I grew up, on the farm in Iowa, my dad used the Farmer's Almanac, but he said it was always too late in it's predictions. I don't know if they are still around but they could have used a set of charts and less fundamentals!! Bonita Joe

at 8:03:26 PM
Yes, the Farmer's Almanac still here, Bonita Joe! We've got one on the wall in our farm kitchen (but I don't trade by it --- honest!).

Chris M. asks:
Wow what an emotional roller coaster. I have been paper trading for 4 mths. Got my confidence up to start with a Broker {the folks with Refco have made the broker part a cake walk} My paper trades have been 75% successfull. My first (3) paper trades with the broker have turned and are all losing money. I am confident in the formations,,,they will make money. Oh, boy,,, lots of patience and confidence. I am having lots of fun so far. Building up my tolerance before I place any real money though. thank you very much for this system Ken.

at 8:04:18 PM
You're doing GREAT, Chris M.! Thanks (and please keep us posted)!

Bill in NC asks:
Hi Ken, Tell Dean the ONLY fundamental that ever worked for me was when the Hurricane hit Florida last year. When it went inland I was reasonably sure it would trash the oranges so I took out options. I was right just this one time.

at 8:05:26 PM
You squeezed out those profits, huh, Bill?! (Did you get that Dean?)

coffeegood asks:
Ken Roberts kicks butt and smokes good "C" gars.

at 8:05:36 PM
!

Russ-Malibu asks:
Dude, You still DA MAN!

at 8:05:40 PM
!

Charles asks:
Ken, in my enthusiasm to get started as quickly as possible I signed up for both the WGB and TOVI services. Thank you for such wonderful tools... but I feel somewhat overwhelmed with information right now while I am still trying to study and learn about trading options. Did I do myself a disservice by trying to take on too much too quickly? Would you recommend dropping the TOVI subscription until I feel comfortable with the WGB basics? Thanks for all the tools you provide to help us along!

at 8:07:43 PM
Thanks Charles. Have you called my Course Counselors? They're the best! I'd talk to one of them . . . .

mickey-ite asks:
Mickey-ite in Salem asking: Can you describe your offices down there? What goes on there? How many are on your staff? Can people visit? I understand that you live in a renovated 1910 farmhouse. One of my goals for my wife and I is to find and beautiful old farmhouse on some water (5 or 10 acres with a few animals...nothing like the spread I'm sure you have). I know The WGB will get us there. Thanks Ken.

at 8:08:46 PM
Come on out and see us, mickey-ite --- we're just down the road from y'all in Salem! (We'll also soon have a tour of our offices and town online . . . .)

Well that's it for another month. Watch for my follow-up email tomorrow . . . .

Check out my favorite web sites: www.tovionline.com (Have you taken my personal tour yet?); www.uschartco.com ; www.fourstarbooks.com ; www.historictrees.org ; www.billoreilly.com ; www.wildlifeimages.org ; www.salestax.org (Let's abolish the IRS!); www.LP.org (Take The World's Smallest Political Quiz and see where you stand!); www.VOTE.com (Make your voice heard!). My next chat will be Tuesday, June 14th.

As always: Use these newfound powers only for Good. Good night, God bless, and watch where you step!

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