Let's Talk Trading (tm) with Ken Roberts
from May 6, 2003

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As we begin this evening’s session, let me state the reason I conduct these monthly chats: to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and pick the brain of a successful, long-time, real-money trader. It’s not the highest and best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your Course materials. That’s what my Course Counselors are here for... Now is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you’re learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you’re out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun along those lines, so much better. Alright... I’ve got an Opus X Robusto fired up, here’s our plate of freshly baked chocolate chip cookies, the coffee’s poured, so let’s talk commodities!

SoccerLover asks:
Ken, how do you calculate 50% retracements? Do you take the full move and ignore any smaller 50% retracements on the way up? For instance, is the Cocoa 50% monthly retracement 1547 (674 to 2420) or 1639 (857 to 2420). Thanks.
at 6:04:15 PM
Hello SoccerLover. I calculate the BIGGEST 50% move using chart points I can. So on the Monthly Cocoa chart, I use 674 to 2420. Thanks!
Shelly and Crew in Long Island asks:
Hello Ken, Our question pertains to Platimum's weekly target point. Where do you compute your low for the weekly in this particular situation; at 406 on September of 2001, or on the low of 332 during October 1998? Septembers 406 seems right, but I don't want to rob myself of profits. It also seems thats Crude oil is in this same situation. Thank-you for clearing this up for us Ken. Since we found these chats, we've all learned quite a bit.
at 6:08:41 PM
Thanks Shelly and Crew, and welcome! You're right: Use 406 as your Weekly Platinum low and 710 as your high since this is the only 50% retracement that hasn't occurred yet. In the future, however, when Platinum breaks its old high of 800, then I'll use the 332 low. Good goin'....
Mattituck Mike asks:
ken...just finished PB's Discover Yourself from four star. wow! un-believable stuff...
at 6:09:41 PM
Yes, he was a thoughtful man, wasn't he? Christopher Reeve is a big fan of Paul Brunton's too . . . . Thanks!
Fiddler asks:
Why are you buying gold calls since gold seems to have taken such a dive in the last few months?
at 6:11:41 PM
Looking at Gold's Monthly chart, Gold's got a lot of upside potential, so the best time to buy call options is when a market's dropping (which it's doing on its Weekly chart). Thanks.
JOURNEY MANIA asks:
Hey Ken, When you get out of half of your contract's at the daily 50%, at what point do you begin buying more contracts? Is it when the price suddenly begins to take a nose dive past your initial buying price? Thanks!!!!
at 6:16:05 PM
Typically, Journey, I don't buy any more after a market begins to take off. By then, I've established my position (with multiple options, for example) and simply peel them off at profit-taking targets. If the market should hit its Daily 50% target, however, and then back down to its old (or even lower) lows, I'll load up with options again. In this case, the market gave me a second opportunity to trade it! Thanks.
ohio trader asks:
Hi Ken, thanks for the GAB course! When yould you use a futures contract instead of an option?
at 6:17:00 PM
I trade both routinely, Ohio Trader, but I'd recommend learning to trade first with options. Believe me: You'll KNOW when the time's right for you.
Ed asks:
Many thanks for doing these chats Ken. What is going on with Cotton? Are you still long? I'm still long waiting for the weekly 50%, but my emotions are going against me. Any advice please!! Thanks Ed from ON Canada
at 6:21:24 PM
Weekly Cotton's 50% = 55 (which it already hit). Coming back down now, Cotton's Weekly 50% is 44 (28 & 60). Cotton's Monthly 50% = 73. Yes, I'm still long, holding through this drop, and waiting for at least 73. Thanks Ed!
Fiddler asks:
Does your method of trading ignore fundamentals completely?
at 6:21:55 PM
Yes, completely. I don't fiddle around with fundamentals!
Paul asks:
I don't understand the term "pure 50% retracement." Can you help me understand it?
at 6:24:40 PM
I'll answer your question, Paul, but then ignore it and, as I mentioned before here this evening, get the biggest move you can using chart points. A "pure 50% retracement" examines any chart tick-by-tick (you usually have to use a magnifying glass!) and eliminates all mid-trend 50% retracements. (Now forget what I just said!)
vinman asks:
Hi Ken. When buying call options, does one get a better deal when the price is on its way down or when it goes into a narrow sideways channel? Or is it just a wait and see thing? Thanks in advance for your answer and your courses are the best!!!
at 6:26:09 PM
It just depends, Vinman, upon that market at that particular time. BOTH events --- a dropping market and a market in a narrow sideways channel --- typically spell cheaper and cheaper call options, however. Thanks.
ML asks:
What do you think about Pork Belly put options right now?
at 6:27:33 PM
Right on! That's what I'm looking to do: Short Bellies. Thanks.
george asks:
George from Buffalo. Hi ken, Whats your favorit cigar? GAB is great, thanks for all the help. George
at 6:29:19 PM
Thanks George! If I were stuck on an island and could bring just one cigar, I think it would have to be a Cuban Hoyo de Monterrey Double Corona.
Richman asks:
Hi Ken; You say that we should always use the term "purchase" when acquiring an option. Then use "liquidate" to get rid of it. However whether you use a full service or online broker they only use the term buy or sell. I realize we should never actually "sell" an option, I've never had a problem with this, but can it be a problem and if so what can we do? thanks
at 6:30:41 PM
Yes, it can become a problem, Richman, and that's why I make such a big deal about it. I'd still say "liquidate" to your broker and let him/her translate what you really wish to do into trading floor talk. Good question.
doc. com. asks:
If coffee has been in a channel lately, and if it broke out on 4-17-03, and if usually a second chance is provided (a lot of if's) my question is, has this second chance happened yet?
at 6:32:35 PM
It MAY give us a second chance if it backs down from its rally last week. Coffee is still REALLY low now (see its Monthly chart) and I'm still loading up with calls and futures. Thanks!
nova scotia scott asks:
Hi Ken & Gang, Have you ever run into stupid news that's useful? Was trading CDN$, bought at 6815, again at 6846, then at 6891 without stops. SARS news caused drop to 6806 low and I sold [out of fear] near the low and as i'm sure you know this drop only lasted half a day. I can only wonder what I'd done if I looked into why the drop??
at 6:34:26 PM
You could never predict that, Nova Scotia Scott. That's why I call it STUPID news --- it's NEVER reliable as a basic to make trading decisions. Thanks!
beavis from louisville asks:
Hi Ken, I recently bought 3 Dec cotton puts. I have the weekly 50% at 44 and the daily at about 46. I also have Sep wheat calls, with weekly 50% at 350 and daily at 340. Am I close on the 50%s? Thanks.
at 6:35:26 PM
Sounds right-on to me, Beavis! Good goin'....
coffeemogel asks:
Doug in Grant's Pass Hello Ken, just wanted to congratulate you on another winner! I'm talking about the GAB course and the TOVI site. I had a chance to compare my option picks on US Charts with my option picks on TOVI in Silver and guess what! The TOVI silver calls I bought cost less and made more on silver's recent move per option than my own picks on US Charts using the same criteria. TOVI would more than pay for itself in savings or profits alone! Thanks
at 6:36:45 PM
Thanks, Coffeemogel! Yes, that TOVI's pretty smart isn't (he/she/it)?! Great goin'!
COOP AT ALBUQUERQUE asks:
Coop at Albuquerque. It took me two years to digest and practice your commodity trading program. Then I got in to options. I started with $5000, and lost about half. Since the beginning of 2003 I have made a gain on every pruchase, including a recent $1050 on a cotton Put. I cant't find many good Calls, and I am finding I need to play dangerously close in Time, and the premiums running between $150 and $400. I this typical these days?
at 6:38:23 PM
I don't think so, Coop. Call a Course Counselor and find out how you can tour TOVI and take a free peek. It really is amazing (if I do say so myself)!
NOTE: I'm currently working on TOVI's on-line tour which I personally narrate and guide you screen by screen throughout the site. This should be ready in a week or so and if you'd like us to send you an E-mail when it's ready, just give me your name and E-mail address at feedback@kroberts.com. Even if I already have your E-mail address, please give it again for this special one-time announcement of my upcoming TOVI Tour.
Eric in Fort Worth asks:
Good evening, Ken. When stopped out of a position during a pullback, what's the best way to re-enter the market when it resumes the trend? (For example, Cocoa recently). Thanks.
at 6:44:07 PM
First off, try call options, Eric (which should get cheaper as you're being stopped out!). If trading futures only, check into the Amplified Trading Techniques Bonus Pak which covers re-entering a trending market. Thanks.
shoeless joe asks:
Ken, When looking for an option when a 1-2-3 is forming is it more prudent to look at closer months for cheaper calls and puts, since the commodity's price should be moving soon, or stick to the strategy of going for time. Gracias !
at 6:45:22 PM
You're welcome, Shoeless Joe! I ALWAYS go for time (and also check TOVI's pick in that particular market since TOVI evaluates time vs. cost as well).
Derrick asks:
Can I make arrangments to still receive my weekly GAB Updates after my 3 months FREE term expires? Derrick
at 6:45:56 PM
Sure, Derrick. Just call a Course Counselor to renew. Thanks!
Midget asks:
Ken, Do you have any suggestions in finding a broker. I was looking to open an account with $1000.00 to start with options. what I'm finding is that my net worth is not high enough, the brokers are actually sending my $1000.00 back. Thanks. Midget.
at 6:47:41 PM
If you trade only options, Midget, a brokerage should open an account for $1,000. Many do, so just keep shopping. Also, feel free to call a Course Counselor to discuss this issue. Thanks.
markermouse asks:
Ken, I am a TWMPMM student. Finally got tired of JUST papertrading, and seeing all the money I could have made. Openned my account and on my first trade ever... made $1,700.00 in May Rice. Your courses are worth SO MUCH MORE THAN THEY COST!!! Thanks for sharing your knowledge! Markermouse in TN P.S. Now I am a GAB student.
at 6:48:45 PM
Alright, Markermouse! Great goin'! (Have you activated your free month of TOVI yet?)
hoby asks:
hi kenfolks from tallahassee fla ..is it too late for put options in july lumber? just trying to figure a way in. thanks!
at 6:49:47 PM
I'd be looking at calls now, Hoby. Check out Lumber's Daily, Weekly, and Monthly 50% retracement targets . . . . Thanks.
Dean in Laguna Niguel, CA asks:
Greeting from the "regulation" state....ahh, but I love SoCal anyway.... My question is regarding options: You mentioned to Fiddler that you buy calls when the market is dropping, puts when it's rising, etc. Do you consider the tops & bottoms, or just look at extreme highs and lows such as when you "have the market cornered"? Thanks!
at 6:51:03 PM
I go by any market's 50% targets (typically its Monthly and then Weekly) and trade by that. Thanks.
kens asks:
Unforgotten, ken thanks for this chats, they are really amazing!Do you think that rough rice still got some up move?
at 6:52:02 PM
Yes, Unforgotten! Check out Rice's Weekly AND Monthly 50% targets!!!
Bonita Joe asks:
Ken - I was short Live Cattle in April, made a nice profit to the daily 50%, held some for the weekly and then rolled over into June, but then realized that the price difference in the two months had to be made up for with a retracement, in this case UP!!! Thanks to your Boot Camp teaching I made a quick call from the airplane I was in and "liquidated" my positions just in time to see Live Cattle go up. Now am looking at a 7555 retracement before a potential short. Thanks for the knowledge! Bonita Joe
at 6:53:30 PM
Great goin', Bonita Joe! Thanks.
firsttimechatter asks:
Do you think this is the start of the big move in coffee we have been waiting for?
at 6:54:10 PM
I think so, and if it is, I'm ready and waiting!
Derrick asks:
Hello Ken, do I still have time to buy inexpensive call options on coffee? Derrick
at 6:54:45 PM
Yes I think you do (and yes I am too)!
riceman asks:
hi ken thanks for tovi it working for me
at 6:55:04 PM
TOVI rules doesn't it, Riceman?!
mnfarmer asks:
Ken and Crew...Thanx for giving me new direction from your GAB course. It paid for itself instantly when I was able to use it to find an exit point for a july corn put I had. Thank u very much...Everything in the gab course was sooo easy to read, it was a great refresher for me and how simple it actually is. When u talked about purchasing a 440 wht call which market are u talking about? Chi,KC or Mpls???
at 6:55:45 PM
Thanks! Chicago.
JohnG asks:
Rapid City, SD - Just subscribed to TOVI. It's a great tool! Is the Market Rankings geared toward short or long term trades?
at 6:58:14 PM
It gives you BOTH, JohnG! It's all there, but I think it could be made easier and clearer, so that's why I'm creating the TOVI Tour I spoke of earlier, and also will be adding features to the website to make this even easier to utilize. It's all there, and even greater things are coming!
fix and fly paul asks:
Ken: fix and fly paul from Fort Wayne, IN - I love Rice was stopped out at 6.65 for $3,170 profit. It appears that Pork Bellies are moving to record highs, yet the 76 Puts for August still are $600 each. Seems a bit pricey. Do bellies typically go for higher numbers in options (like Coffee for example).
at 6:59:03 PM
Yes, Paul, that's typical, since Bellies is known for its volatility. You did nice in rice!
derrick asks:
Ken: Let me piggyback on your last suggestion. You recommend trading options first and I have only TWMPMM 1. Are you suggesting to get TWMPMM 2 and start from there?
at 7:00:01 PM
Not necessarily, Derrick. Check out the "Fishing With Options" section in your TWMPMM I Course. That's a GREAT place to begin. Thanks!
ML asks:
Would you say 50% retracement rule is THE most important factor in you’re own personal trading?
at 7:00:56 PM
Yes; that's where I first decide which side of a market to trade (bullish or bearish).
bc-lb from Houston, TX asks:
Hello Ken; Just woke up from several years of hybernation after taking your course, to actually start making money. Best sign that I have "matured" - I actually look forward to retractions, since they tell me where to put my next stop loss, instead of dreading them. Thanks for everything!
at 7:04:16 PM
That's it, bc-lb! You got it!
sunvalley asks:
Ken, Thanks for the sage advice about feeling comfortable paper trading before investing any real money. I have saved myself thousands of dollars already by waiting and learning first! You are right, 15 minutes a day teaches me plenty. Hey, is the EuroYen in a narrow sideways channel or what?!? Sunvalley
at 7:05:21 PM
Thanks, Sunvalley! Yep, that's the most extreme, most narrow I've ever seen (and likely ever will see)!
Ruxpin asks:
Ken, what does the GAB have to offer versus TWMPMM?? When is Euro dollor gonna tank?
at 7:06:28 PM
GAB is 100% options, Ruxpin. Eurodollars, let's see, where are those Tarot cards I had sitting here . . . .
longwood lou asks:
do you think that 9700 is too far out for a december eurodollar put? they are rally cheap now. Greenspan is worried about deflation.
at 7:07:36 PM
Not a bit. Looks great to me, Longwood Lou (and I'm short Eurodollars without ever even thinking about Greenspan!)
Dean in Laguna Niguel, CA asks:
Ken a specific question: I recently bought some call options (Sugar #11) SBVO4, strike of 11, in order to get them cheap enough. Does this seem too far out of the money? (Subjective, but just asking for your opinion...thanks)
at 7:09:26 PM
1100 seems fine to me, Dean (just below Sugar's Weekly high). Also check out TOVI's evaluation of Sugar (ranked #1 call market now) and options to trade it. Thanks!
JAD95010 asks:
Ken, I was at your birthday bash last Aug..we were told of a disk and info with the latest, most extreme markets, that would be available by Oct. What is the current status of this info? Bob and I are are awaiting your response. By the way, I have been doing great in the markets, despite my poor showing at your senimar.....every one needs a foil.....Joan, from your birthday bash...
at 7:10:58 PM
Hello, Joan and Bob! Yes, that's done. Just call Course Counselor Anthony and he'll set you up.
Scott--Ft. Worth asks:
Hi Ken! This is my first live chat. The archives are a brilliant idea! Very helpful. As a business man, it all came clear to me when you explained how you trade without stops on the Round Table videos. My question is when does a market get low enough to start buying? Take Eurodollars as an example. Did you start getting short at 95.00, 96.00, or when it took out the old high at 97. Also, as you are averaging down, how long do you let it move before you add the next set of contracts? THANKS!
at 7:13:58 PM
Great questions, Scott, but the answer(s) is very subjective. In Eurodollars, for example, I began my (long, long) short trade when the old high of 97 was broken. Typically I add when old lows or highs (support/resistance) are taken out, but with Eurodollars, there's no such thing now! See, it's very subjective. Thanks!
Simon asks:
What is GAB? Am I missing something?
at 7:14:57 PM
You sure are, Simon! "Ken says" call a Course Counselor for all the details. (Hey, lighten up on American Idol!)
Diplomaticos asks:
Hi Ken & gang from Calgary, Canada. Thanks for your chats, since I miss the opportunity to see you "live" at a Roundtable. Any plans to resume them soon? With the Canadian dollar taking off it's REALLY affordable! And go coffee go!!!
at 7:16:04 PM
Thanks Diplomaticos (a very fine Cuban cigar, too)! Keep checking the website on my Seminar Schedule, but don't stop charting!
RickDenver asks:
Hi Ken and crew, Wanted to let you know I cleared $8,000 last month in Pork Bellies and after it went up again, I got short again and I'm waiting for the big drop to the 50 percent level...are you short Bellies yet ? It looks like a big opportunity shaping up !!
at 7:17:09 PM
It is, and yes I am, RickDenver. Thanks.
dxw asks:
What is the relationship between the philosophy of life as expressed in Rich Man's Secret (attention to the present moment) and your philosophy of trading (long-term position)? How does each influence the other?
at 7:17:52 PM
You'll never last in the markets long-term if you don't remember the present moment.
virgil asks:
Do you ever use anything besides charts for your trading decisions? Learning to enter contracts is easier than knowing how to exit. Any suggestions?
at 7:19:45 PM
Good one, Virgil! And most people will never know (or believe) what you just said until they experience it firsthand. Yes, I use Tarot cards, psychics, a crystal ball, the Magic 8 Ball, and Miss Cleo (when not fighting off the litigators). Just kidding . . . . I'd have to answer your question like this: TOVI.
nova scotia scott asks:
Hi again, Learned an expensive lesson today about stops ...use options instead! I was stopped out of both Bean meal and beans today, cost me $992 by the end of the day in lost recocery [and profits]. Fear and greed are dangerous animals in this biz!
at 7:20:30 PM
Great lesson, Nova Scotia Scott (and thanks for sharing it with us).
fix and fly paul asks:
Ken: Are brokers born deaf or do they teach them to ignore their clients wishes? Inteviewed three firms (first wanted me to let them trade my accout (sure fire winners) and all for only $100 per turn. The second told all about his 20 years in the business and the "secret" methods they had for making me 'major money in the market" and of course when I got that, commissions were the least of my concern. The third one listened patiently, asked how much help I wanted, what my goals were and then quoted $25 per turn with his assistance. Obviously a former course member of yours and now my broker.
at 7:22:24 PM
Thank you, Paul, for letting us in on your broker search. You learned a LOT, didn't you?! Finding a broker to work with is a process and may involve several. Just remember: It's YOUR money and YOUR decisions, but many people are too timid to learn this the first time out.
JAD95010 asks:
Ken. are you there?
at 7:22:35 PM
Yes, I'm here. Are you there?
gundennis asks:
Ken could you tell us what this tovi thing is?
at 7:23:18 PM
Sure: Log on to www.tovionline.com and start browsing! You'll love it!
markermouse asks:
Ken, When you spot a bottom formation, at what point is it too late to jump on-board? Example - July rice, is it way too late? Great courses, THANKS!!
at 7:24:10 PM
Right now, I'd say it is too late to enter Rice long. But watch for a retracement, then consider your options.
cstahl asks:
I recently paper traded Pork Bellies, Cocoa, and Orange Juice. All three went wild and I got stopped out in all three. Are these typically very volatile markets?
at 7:24:44 PM
Yes they are, cstahl, but that's why they can be wildly profitable too! Don't you love this business?!
PatientlyPersistent asks:
Love your puns, Ken. Wish I had your wit. With the Euro$ @ extreme high, I took a short position in the March '04 when it made a new high today. When it pulls back I'll get a call @ strike price of 99. And if the Euro$ goes to 99, I'll take another short position. What do you think of my plan? By the way, the Euro$ beyond March '04 are lower than this year's. Does that mean anything?
at 7:25:44 PM
Yes, that's a deal, PatientlyPersistent. Good for you for finding them! Your plan sounds sound to me.
fix and fly paul asks:
Ken: Having made a few thousand on rice futures, Would it be prudent to start looking for Rice Puts on its moves toward its 50% levels? Thanks for pour Course Counselors, set me straight more than a couple of times.
at 7:26:35 PM
Thanks, Paul. Yes, shop those Rice puts.
Eric asks:
Im long 2 future contracts of july coffee at 63.35. Should i be "pyramiding" now?
at 7:27:39 PM
Since you asked me, Eric, I have to say "No, don't pyramid." You should be comfortable with that process BEFORE you're in the trade. Sorry for the "scolding," but it's sound advice . . . .
ninofeo asks:
Ken, have you noticed that coffee's monthly chart is now making a similar pattern to the one in '92-'94? Then,it exploded in May '94. That means that this could be the month that we have all been waiting so patiently for. Go Coffee Go !!!!
at 7:28:19 PM
Yes, I certainly HAVE noticed that! I hope this is the month . . . .
Carribean Craig asks:
Hi Ken, Any news on upcoming boardrooms etc.? I can't wait to meet you. I'm up 45k in 2003 thanks to your program! Richman's secret is a blessing.
at 7:29:01 PM
Thanks Carribean Craig! Probably no Boardrooms in the Caribbean, but you may see one coming up in Key West . . . .
rice lover asks:
Hey ken Currently I have an account and trading very successfully--it's almost too good too be true-26k since Jan including 8k in the last week. I'm trading contracts. I want to trade options, but I don't want to pay the high premium. What do you think about on line trading options since the most one can lose is what is invested?
at 7:29:40 PM
Yes, I love it, Rice Lover! (And check out TOVI too . . . .)
Pqhpat asks:
Good evening,Ken and staff. I'm your yogi friend from Texas. The last time I asked you if it was still safe to get into rice, and you said,"Yes,but expect a pullback." The pullback did happen,and after that,it rocketed upwards,but I was not aboard because of that darn broker and my stupid mistake of being ruffled by him! I made some money on rice, but I had gone out too early and wanted to go back in. That's why I asked you the question. What is your feel for wheat and corn? Is this the right time to enter because of the accumulating formations?
at 7:31:22 PM
Yes on both, Pqhpat. I know what you mean about those "darn brokers," but remember: Everything's ultimately YOUR decision. Good lesson learned.
drew from georgia asks:
ken, i have read that a 1000.00 to 5000.00 is not sufficent to begin because it limits you in what you can do. especially a 1,500.00 account. give some imput?? thanks drew
at 7:31:59 PM
Don't believe everything you read, Drew. Papertrade!
lionking asks:
Ken from Ontario, Can. Hi Ken, I got your course back in 97. I notice more and more when we all see a good (none basic) Q. You pass up the opportunity to asnwer and refer the people to course counclers. wouldn't it be better to answer them now ( and avoid those odd fill in ones, that are idle nothing comments ) that fill time. I mean we all came here to hear from you (a once in a life time thing) :) Thanks
at 7:33:53 PM
Hello Lionking. I do the best I know how (along the lines of my Opening Comment at the beginning of every chat). But what would you like to ask that I haven't covered?
lionking asks:
Ken from Ontario, Can. Its cool that this was my first time joining the chat (tonight). I have to addmit that I've seen some of the same Q's answered that I've had over a period of years. Thanks Ken :)
at 7:34:36 PM
!
moon pie asks:
Ken, what is your favorite market now, and if i only have 1000 to spend on and option how would you recommend me finding the best one?
at 7:36:11 PM
I've never been able to answer this question througout all my years of teaching, Moon Pie, but now I can: Go to TOVI! It's analyzed it all for you . . . .
Presto Wizbang asks:
Ken -- June and September Eurodollars seem to be in a sideways pattern ever sense forming a top a couple months ago. But now the farther out months of Dec and March (2004) have gone on to new highs! The question is, do you think that has any real significance, or would you just continue to watch the front month -- which is bouncing around making new 2’s and 3’s but still looks nicely set-up for a long awaited drop?
at 7:36:45 PM
I'll just continue watching the front month, Presto!
MovieProducer asks:
Ken, I'm a long term member of your course, but never done as well as I have with Rice recently. I made 96k PROFIT in 4 months. I pyramided my buys and then pyramided my sells down to only 10 contracts and saw it go to 6.00 and then back to 5.78 and I got scared. Now my biggest problem is that I always figure what I would have made if I'd stayed until the current level. AAARRRGGGHHH!!! I know I shouldn't do that! BTW, I almost NEVER make money in options...I buy far out, at wkly 50% and they always expire. What to do, what to do? Thanks for all your help. Will I be able to get back in rice soon?
at 7:39:52 PM
Maybe, MovieProducer. Wait for that setback in Rice. Thanks for your trading update too. Check out TOVI, choose some of its option selections, place them in TOVI's "Active Portfolio" and monitor those options' staying power. I think you'll be amazed (and probably want to make a movie about it too!) CUT!!!
normt asks:
Hi Ken! I've been waiting for a bottom formation in coffee. where was the 1-2-3 points that signaled when I should have entered??
at 7:41:06 PM
You missed it (back in August), normt, but not really. Coffee's back down to near-lows, and take a look at that Monthly chart!
Wheels in SC asks:
Ken, I love this stuff. Quick story and a question. Paper traded some and then went "real" and tripled my money in cocoa on the first push. Then over bought (greed) and lost all of it. Paper trading again to make sure I get this right. Just bought GAB to refresh. Philosophy/attitude are everything. So, what do you think about Dec Cotton at 45, Dec Euro$ at 9675 and July Heating Oil at 85. Thanks for everything.
at 7:42:31 PM
Sounds right on! to me, Wheels. Thanks for sharing a valuable lesson!
george asks:
George from buffalo, are there offshore futures brokers we can start trading accounts with? If so how would i find them? George
at 7:44:11 PM
Well, George, listen to this response from an old-geezer dinosaur who doesn't care all that much for computers: Search the Internet!
trwtrader asks:
Ken, In regard to ohio trader's question of options vs. futures, isn't there more profit potential with futures even though the risk is greater? Thanks.
at 7:44:42 PM
Not at all, trwtrader! Check out those options!
Mike From Mystic Island NJ asks:
Hi Ken, Soybeans started up from 520 in October 1982,1992,2002, is there some kind of pattern there ??? Thanks for your help
at 7:45:29 PM
Looking back, yes there is. But just try trading on that "fact" today and watch the rule get broken!
ninofeo asks:
Ken, you are the Master!!! How did you know Pork Bellies would eventually go up? I need to shop at your crystal ball store. Have you shorted pb yet?
at 7:46:15 PM
No, I'm no master, ninofeo. I just follow my charts. Yep, beginning to get short the Bellies market now. Thanks!
Albert asks:
Albert Portamouth, Va , Ken do you currently use the Delta Trading System
at 7:47:03 PM
No, Albert, TOVI does all that for me now!
Toody asks:
Ken, I noticed that May Corn has been trading in a channel for the last 16 weeks around the 50% retracement from the last high and low. Do you think that this market is ready to turn around and continue the up trend or would it be best to bracket it and trade it both long and short with options? Thanks for all you do.
at 7:49:23 PM
My charting says there's more upside than downside potential in Corn (see its Monthly chart), but bracketing it is never a bad idea since NO ONE KNOWS what any market is going to do next.
CJ asks:
CJ from New Hampshire What markets should we be watching on the short term? I'm looking to short the Dow index.... comment? and THANK YOU for all of what you do.
at 7:51:28 PM
One moment, CJ, I'm looking it up on TOVI . . . . Okay, TOVI says the DOW is in a downtrend, but that downtrend is WEAK. So this means TOVI says to begin looking LONG at the Dow. (See how easy that was?!)
Howard - Austin Texas asks:
Ken, I would like to thank Eric from Fort Worth for his comments last month concerning paper trading. It is a good way to continue to improve your skills and his comments reminded me of that. I have been at this for 3 years and mainly lost money. I feel that I have learned a tremendous amount but have a continual struggle in trading too much for the short term. I have come to the conclusion that I need to really stick to the extreme markets and be careful in not over trading in relation to the money in the account. Do you feel Copper is going to start moving soon toward it's monthly 50% and what do you think is happening with the US Dollar Vs. the other currencies ?
at 7:53:59 PM
Thank you, Howard. Great advice. TOVI says Copper is in a downtrend, but it's weakening. So begin now to look long Copper and shop call options. The US Dollar is the #1-ranked PUT market in the Financials. Check it out.
gcf358@aol.com asks:
I do love this business -- after checking with TOVI first! THANKS
at 7:54:08 PM
!
ML asks:
Are you writing the strategies guide for Tovi? If not, have you developed your own strategies for using Tovi?
at 7:55:01 PM
Wait'll you see my TOVI Tour, ML (make sure I have your E-mail address). Thanks.
Derrick asks:
Thanks Ken! Your course is effective, rewarding, and GREAT indeed! Derrick
at 7:55:23 PM
Thanks Derrick!
taxedtodeath asks:
is the Opus X Robusto better than a cohiba? this one is smoking!
at 7:56:04 PM
The best cigar in the world is the one you're smoking now!
checking 6 asks:
Ken thanks for everything. The more I study living in the NOW the more I am aware how much of my life I truly have control over. Does this truly translate into sucessful trading as I start read my charts while living in the NOW or is it mostly being in the right place at the right time.
at 7:56:47 PM
You are ALWAYS in the right place at the right time (but you have to KNOW that)!
Fiddler asks:
Euro currencies: Could the chart ever go higher than it started at 5 yrs ago?
at 7:57:44 PM
Yes it could, Fiddler, so be careful!
doc. com. asks:
I have seen a lot of talk lately (as if one can see talk) about options. I understand their holding power, but if one has the resources to hang on, which between options and futures contracts usually provide the best return?
at 7:58:34 PM
I've never seen a definitive answer to this question, doc.com (or one even close to it). YOU must decide which works best for YOU.
Trips22 asks:
Thanks Ken and the gang. I have been been learning and trying to follow your course for two and half years. Finally I have position traded in a market making a 50% retracement in a big way. I am long in Rice. I just lquidated my 5 May rice futures contarct with $15,000 profit and still holding 5 July contracts with a Weekly Target of 7.95. My question is how to deal with rolling over these contract when the market has moved up so much, and the difference between May and Septemberin price was so high. Do you get back in at the retracement or just a profit and keep the remaining contracts only? Thanks again for every thing. By the way I have been long Rice for one whole year. And I did not take any profit in Wheat when it made the big move last year.
at 8:00:36 PM
Great goin', Trips22! To answer your question, I have to say just roll those contracts when you need to (regardless of the difference in price). Thanks.
nova scotia scott asks:
Ken, What do ya make of the currencies now? Time for put shopping or what?
at 8:02:21 PM
No, not all of them, Nova Scotia Scott. Check out all the Currency Monthlies . . . .
Got Coffee? asks:
Hi Ken. Like a lot of others, I've been in coffee calls and patiently waiting for about a year and a half now. In the meantime, I've had options expire worthless or I've liquidated them while they were still worth something and used the money to get more options farther out in time. I'm on a limited budget and staying in coffee has taxed my patience and pocketbook. Now that I have 2 Sep 03 150 calls and 1 160 call, I'm tempted to liquidate the 160 call while it's still worth something, and wait till Dec 03 calls drop and use the money to get a Dec 03 call. Is this wise? Sorry for the long question but I'm getting discouraged while waiting for coffee to percolate!...I'd appreciate your comments.
at 8:03:43 PM
Don't get discouraged, Got Coffee!!! Do whatever you need to at least keep one foot in Coffee.
Well that's it for another month. Here are my favorite web sites if you're interested: www.tovionline.com (new!!!) ; www.uschartco.com ; www.fourstarbooks.com. ; www.historictrees.org. ; www.billoreilly.com ; www.wildlifeimages.org; www.LP.org. My next chat will be Tuesday, June 10th. Also remember Matt's stock and commodity chat Tuesday, May 20th. As always: Use these newfound powers only for Good. Good night!
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