Ken Roberts Chat

Let's Talk Trading (tm) with Ken Roberts
from March 9, 2004

As we begin this evening’s session, let me state the reason I conduct these monthly chats: to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and pick the brain of a successful, long-time, real-money trader. It’s not the highest and best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your Course materials. That’s what my Course Counselors are here for... Now is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you’re learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you’re out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun along those lines, so much better. Alright... I’ve got a Hoyo de Monterrey Double Corona fired up, here’s our plate of freshly baked chocolate chip cookies, the coffee’s poured, so let’s talk commodities! NOTE!!! When commenting on one of my Courses, please identify WHICH ONE. Also, when relating trading experiences and/or results, please give details: Futures contracts, options, options AND futures, etc. This helps others follow along and learn from your experience too.

Saved One asks:
Good evening Ken. I've been very anxious for this months chat discussion. You've asked in recent chats for us to comment on our success. This year I was blessed with a $79,000 as of Dec 31st. Are you still in short positions in Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle, or have you already taken monthly profits? Thanks Ken for your time.

at 6:14:12 PM
Thanks Saved One! I look forward to these Chats too. Congratulations on your profits. I've taken profits, but still hanging on with a few contracts.

snmontana asks:
Hi Ken. Trading is as good as ever. Thanks for teaching me in 1994. 10 years later and it just keeps getting better, just like the flyer you sent in the mail said it would. Hang on to your hat. thank you. No question tonight, just thought I would show up to tell everyone how great this business is. They will think I am a plant.

at 6:15:56 PM
Let 'em think what they want to, snmontana! I appreciate your staying in touch and joining us this evening. (If you were a plant, what species do you think you'd want to be?)

Eric in Fort Worth asks:
Good evening, Ken. Does Pork Bellies look like a good sell to you at this point, or would you give this market more time?

at 6:18:13 PM
Yep, Bellies' Weekly and Monthly charts are perched at the top . . . . Just checked TOVI which says Bellies is in a strong uptrend short-term, and long-term is DOWN. So those put options should be getting cheaper still. Thanks!

Four Aces From Phoenix asks:
Do writers/sellers of options have to post margins to guarantee performance? If they do, the must be enormous.

at 6:19:28 PM
Yes, Four Aces, option sellers have to post margin the same as if trading a futures contract (and selling an option carries the same UNlimited risk as a futures contract). Good question.

Robert Michael asks:
ken, does july orange juice look as good to you as it does to me?

at 6:20:46 PM
Sure does, RM: Look at those new lows on EVERY O.J. chart --- daily, weekly, AND monthly . . . .

Cigar on the Beach asks:
In TOVI, in Long Term Momentum section....when it says "minimum time reccomendation"...and it says say, 33 months...are you actually saying that we should be prepared to wait 33 months for movement in the direction indicated?

at 6:26:48 PM
That's correct, Cigar. TOVI gives us its "Minimum Time Recommendation" to help us plan on staying in this market until it makes its move and hits its target, so it's a budgeting feature. Pretty snazzy, huh ....

Hawaiianson asks:
Aloha Ken! I was under the impression that when a Value Factor rates a market very high, it's supposed to mean that that's the best value for your money. Last week I told you about March Eurodollar Puts @ 98.87 and even though they were very cheap, TOVI rated them nearly a 4 VF. Well, on that Friday (3/5) it went to a whopping (probably record-breaking!) high of 5.913! Yesterday it went back down to 4.349 but still, that's very, very high. I want to know, what does this mean? There is just 6 or 7 days left until expiration and why is it ranked so high? Is TOVI recommending one to buy more of these? That's what I would think...

at 6:32:18 PM
Yes, Hawaiianson, that's the highest I've ever seen too. What TOVI's saying is that for $6.25 (and being 1 tick out of the money), you're essentially controlling a full futures contract!!! TOVI's also saying that it's highly likely that this option will expire in the money and you'll earn much more than its $6.25 premium! Great observation . . . .

Ajax asks:
When TOVI recommends entering the market, you have said that you play the forward contract month. Where is the cut off for time remaining to expiry: 1 day, 1 week, 10 days?

at 6:35:10 PM
TOVI nearly always tracks and recommends the MOST ACTIVE futures contract month (which is typically NOT the front month); it's the contract with the highest Open Interest. Hope this clears it up for you. Thanks!

HAV-N-FUN asks:
Ken - I've been a KRC member since '97 and just started TOVI. I love it! I hope it does as much for me as your novel "A Rich Man's Secret" has. Keep up the good work - you must be Clement Watt reincarnated!!!!

at 6:35:51 PM
Come to think of it, he did pass away the same year I was born . . . . Hmmmmm . . . .

Brian asks:
Hi Ken - I took your course several years ago and did it all wrong and then got distracted with other things. Now I'm back and have your new course GAB. With the TWMPMM course, you focused on futures and now you seem to gravitate toward options. What led you into options vs futures contracts?

at 6:37:50 PM
To me, Brian, options are THE GREAT EQUALIZER. They allow the small trader advantages that used to be available only to big (lots-of-cash) traders. (When I first began trading, there were NO options!)

Sovereign Lady asks:
Seattle WA here... With the options insurance plan in mind...if you could only afford to remain in one market with options, which market would you remain in at this time?

at 6:40:45 PM
That's difficult to answer, Sovereign Lady. Are you mainly considering TIME or MONEY? Check TOVI's Long-Term Rankings page and sort the markets based on what's important to you. That's what I'd do. Thanks!

Trader Nun asks:
Hey Ken, from Los Angeles...I'm a new TOVI trader, and TOVI says if you got in on Coffee's current price and went to it's projected top of 194, your contract would be worth $44,000+. I want to go long one Sept '05 Coffee contract, but missed getting in on the last pullback. Do you think Coffee will have another pullback, and is Sept '05 too far out or would you get into something closer? Thanks for all your help.

at 6:42:42 PM
No one knows if we'll see another pullback in Coffee, Trader Nun, but I guess we will . . . . I'd stick with TOVI's Value Factor ratings, but Sept. '05 seems great to me --- I love all that time! Thanks.

DM HydroPower asks:
Regina, Sk., CANADA Ken, I'm currently eyeing up a copper-top! Are the batteries drained on this market yet? The energizer bunny would be dead by now! My question is about the 50% retracement. If I am looking at a Sept. put, and want to calculate the 50% and 50/50 levels, do I do that on the Sept. contract or the current front month? I've seen many ask this question, but I never have clearly understood what one should do! Speaky clearly and keep it simple my friend! Thank you!

at 6:45:34 PM
Okay, DM, I'll try (and we LOVE your puns!): I make all my 50% (and 50/50) Retracement calculations based on the Monthly, Weekly, and FRONT MONTH DAILY charts and take all my trading cues from these. Clear enough? Thanks.

Nic in Ohio asks:
Hi Ken, I am long 2-June hogs from 12-31-03 with a profit(on paper only,still perfecting my skills) of almost 5000. My question is do you have a certain amount of profit in your trading plan that you reach befor adding another contract or do you go by gut instinct? Or do you use the charts and tovi to guide most of your trades? thanks,Nic

at 6:48:07 PM
I personally do not pyramid, Nic, but those who do typically wait until profits total enough to cover margin on additional contracts. TOVI guides most of my trading now (why would I neglect what I feel is such a trading advantage?!).

Black Dog asks:
Ken, Cotton broke below support today. Do you see it going down to 55 or even 50?

at 6:49:59 PM
TOVI's downside target in Cotton is 51.75, but no one knows where or when Cotton will go. (Those cottin-pickin' markets . . . .)

Greg Johnson asks:
Ken, are you Victor Truman? Thanks for letting me know about this book! For those of you reading this Chat, The name of the book is A RICH MAN'S SECRET. This book cost $10 it is worth a million bucks, if you have not read this Book you are missing LIFE!! Greg Johnson

at 6:51:08 PM
Thanks Greg! That's one of the best endorsements my novel's ever received! Yes, there are many parallels between Victor Truman and myself.

Howard - Austin Texas asks:
Hi Ken, As long as you have traded on the right side of the market, do you feel that the longer you are in the market, the better your chances of success ? Short term trading has it's place, but it seems these markets can be very tricky and it is better to trade from a long term perspective to really get success out of it. Also, do you have any rule of thumb about how equity should be left in your account to absorb the ups and downs and stay in your position ?

at 6:53:38 PM
Yes, Howard, I think long-term (position) trading is the best for me too. This isn't to say, however, that there isn't great satisfaction in short-term trading, as long as that's what you intend to do. As far as a "rule of thumb," try using TOVI's Dynamic Trend Change Point as a guide in concert with TOVI's Minimum Time Recommendation. It works for me. Thanks.

alicia asks:
-Hey Ken! Just checking in from Pennsylvania. Wanted to know if TOVI in a contrarian too. OJ is way low, I'm stocking up on calls for July and Sept but TOVI says the trend is still going down. Do I have to wait 30 months for it to turn around or am I doing the right thing buying now? Thanks for all the info!

at 6:56:36 PM
TOVI is NOT a contrarian, alicia, but that's not to say YOU can't be a contrarian trader and still use TOVI to your advantage. For example, if you're buying "cheap" calls now as O.J. keeps dropping (and calls keep getting cheaper and cheaper), I'd say check with TOVI before purchasing any of those calls just to be sure TOVI doesn't list them in red. In other words, be sure you're still buying value. Great question. Thanks!

Sabrena asks:
Hi, Ken I just wanted to tell you how much I appreciate your course. I am still learning. That's why I'm still papertrading until I get it right.Thanks for all your information. Sabrena from Farmington Hills, Michigan

at 6:58:06 PM
Thank YOU, Sabrena! Keep at that paper trading until you find yourself saying "I'm tired of being right and not making any money on it!" a lot. And when those thoughts creep in and tell you all the markets are going to take off without you, ignore them! Thanks for joining us this evening.

ML asks:
Have you found that with using TOVI you’re doing more short term trading then you used to, because of the momentum rankings??

at 6:58:31 PM
Yes, ML (and enjoying it a whole lot more!).

maxumboy asks:
just started trading again after losing my job and house. i have 16 call options at 95 strike on nov oj. also bidding half-price on 20 call options at 800 strike on oct. sugar. prices are moving against me right now, but i see them rising soon. just wondering what's your opinion?

at 7:01:04 PM
Well let me check with TOVI here, maxumboy: O.J. is Moderate Down short-term and UP long-term. Sugar is Moderate Up short-term and UP long-term. Here's where options help so much: They help you wait out any moves against you (referring to a previous question). Thanks!

Drew asks:
Hi Ken & Co, I just signed up for TOVI yesterday and I'm really excited about it! I'm planning to use it initially to enhance my short term futures trading strategy and long term options trading plans. The information is tremendous and seemed overwhelming at first but it's really quite simple and yet sophisticated. I'm looking forward to this trading year being the best one yet (thanks to the continuous commodities education you provide with the various information and tools you consistently make available to us). Happy Trading!

at 7:01:47 PM
Thanks Drew! TOVI on!

jeffg asks:
Howdy Ken! When TOVI changes from say a moderate to neutral ranking of momentum, is this a suggestion to get out of the market or to watch the market a tad more close?

at 7:03:37 PM
It's up to you, jeffg. And it depends on how you're trading: long- or short-term. For example, some short-term trading strategies say to EXIT the trade when the rating goes to neutral. So I'd say paper trade several strategies (begin with those on TOVI's website) and see which you prefer. Then stick with that plan. Thank you.

herb asks:
what does DTE stand for on TOVI?

at 7:04:52 PM
Days Til Expiration (of an option). Check out TOVI's Glossary in the User's Guide. Thanks!

dixieflyboy asks:
Ken, although I've been away from the "World's Perfect Business" for awhile, I am wising up and starting to study and paper trade again. I like these chat sessions - they seem to answer my unasked questions! By the way, what is TOVI?

at 7:05:56 PM
Thanks, and welcome back, flyboy! TOVI is The Option Value Indicator. Check it all out (and take a Tour) at www.tovionline.com.

Don asks:
Ken, can you give us any "Pros" and "Cons" on trading thru a Broker vs. on-line trading? We are new to commodity trading and are looking at both options. We are very excited about the possibilities in commodities and are paper trading. Thank you!

at 7:08:58 PM
Thanks, Don, glad you asked (and keep paper trading until you're saying --- well you know . . . .). Personally, I couldn't trade online. I NEED and WANT an efficient, honest broker working on my behalf. Trading involves much more than just placing orders; a great broker WORKS those orders and WORKS for you to earn his or her commissions.

simonfromoverthepond asks:
Birmingham, England - Question on TWMPMMI, II and TOVI. You used to teach us to trade like contrarians whereas now with TOVI it looks like we need to hang on until TOVI shows the trend has changed before jumping in with options or futures. For option trading surely the price will not be as cheap once the trend has now changed??

at 7:13:36 PM
Here's a new one for everyone online tonight: It's CONTRARIAN to trade profitably! I used to buy "cheap" options and hang on until the trend reversed. Oftentimes that meant buying two, three, or more rounds of options before the turnaround. Now, with TOVI, I have a tool that helps me not only with TIMING a market, but also with whether or not those "cheap" options really had value! THAT'S how things have changed. TOVI shows me that cost doesn't necessarily equate to value . . . . Thanks!

TennisPlayer asks:
Good Evening Ken & Teamates, I wanted to share this trading story I recently used TOVI to purchase a call in Rough Rice 9.600 strike at $348.00 on 2/23/03 and took profits today of over $1,000.00 However I only purchased one option, Ken I understand why you recomended buying even numbers. Thanks for your help in this business

at 7:18:34 PM
You're welcome, TennisPlayer, and thanks for your feedback! That Rice trade was an ace, wasn't it?! (Rice passed TOVI's Long-Term upside target today . . . .)

Koruptin Karl asks:
I've been outa the loop for awhile. What is TOVI and how do you get it/use it? From what I'm seeing here, it must be like having a counselor at my desk.

at 7:20:10 PM
It IS, Karl! Check it out at www.tovionline.com (use "krchat" as a password).

jim asks:
jim in ansonia;Ken is there a minimum dollar profit requirement in order to elect a 475 status on a income tax return when properly documented?Thank you any input sincerly jim

at 7:23:05 PM
Hey, Jim, is "ansonia" next to "insomnia" or "amnesia" (I always forget . . . .). Check with an expert, Jim; all I know is that "trader" status is better than "investor" status when it comes to the IRS. (As as long as we're on this topic, check out the national bipartisan movement at www.salestax.org and let's do away with this insane system of taxation we have in good ole USA!)

pat asks:
Why am I a good paper trader....and a poor real money trader?

at 7:23:48 PM
Because you're not catching those emotions that are always there, just waiting for a tiny crack to break through. Glad you asked!

Wayne asks:
What would you do with coffee right now?

at 7:25:55 PM
Well, right now, I'm drinking it. I'm also long Coffee futures and hold a lot of Coffee calls.

heinybass asks:
Ken I'm heavily positioned in the beans market various strikes from 560 through 720 for the month of July. I will never make the same mistake again as I did in feeder cattle that is getting out before the big moooove down. What time frame would you speculate before jacks beanstock falls?

at 7:28:10 PM
I don't know, heinybass (and I'm NOT asking what that name means, so don't twist my arm), but TOVI says give it 34 months to reach its downside target of 536.45. That's a looooong fall . . . .

tymo asks:
Hi Ken; I know you always say," Paper trade, Paper trade, Paper trade, till you get it right." I have had limited success trading options, but my paper trading is in a word,"YUK " Any advice? Or do I just need TOVI ? Tymo asks.

at 7:28:42 PM
Call a Course Counselor (and DO try TOVI!). Thanks!

DKnSJ asks:
Hi Ken: You're the best and this is great. Thank you for the chats. I learn so much from them. I will forever thank you for introducing me to this business, with your Little Book. I've been paper trading every day for two years or so, (patience?) and being layed off last week will now allow me to spend more time and do some 'real time' trades. I have a 'fundamental' kind of question after reading TOVI's Daily Investor. Do most people look at fundamentals initially, then kind of forget about them after a few days, and get back to technical trading? As you always say, fundamentals don't seem to create lasting trends. btw... my first trades will be shorting beans and going long (?) sugar.

at 7:31:17 PM
I NEVER look at fundamentals, DKnSJ, but I guess I'd have to say that I believe most traders are influenced by fundamentals. TOVI likes Sugar and its Long-Term Rankings have just turned GREEN! Thanks.

Nova Scotia Scott asks:
Hi Ken and Everybody tuned in tonite, I'm having big trouble with options. Although I like the idea of limited risk and staying power, I have yet to make money trading them. No matter how much Volume there is I never seem to get filled when I'm wrong and want out. So, I plan a trade with stated portion of premium at risk and always lose more...more than if I'd held a futures contract with a stop loss. anyway, as much as I see the value in TOVI in identifying trends, it's costing me way too much and I'm going back to what wasnt broke before...ACTT!! IMHO the Best course you have!

at 7:33:56 PM
I agree, Nova Scotia Scott --- ACTT is great (and blends with TOVI beautifully). Try this in your paper trading: Hedge a futures contract with an opposing option. See how that goes. (And, as always, feel free to call a Course Counselor.) Thanks for joining us and contributing tonight.

frankie asks:
hi ken, what money management practices should we use for our accounts?

at 7:35:07 PM
There are infinite answers, frankie, but call a Course Counselor and ask for a copy of my "How To Budget" Newsletter articles. I think you'll like them. Thank you.

Jim Radford asks:
I'm finally getting around to taking the TOVI tour to find out what it does. I tried logging on to the website last night and it would only download about the first two minutes. I then tried downloading it to my hard drive, and it indicated that would take 38 minutes. So I gave up. Do you have a demo CD you could mail me?

at 7:36:27 PM
Sure Jim! Just call a Course Counselor!

r28c asks:
Hey Ken, is it a good idea base futures positions on a further out month because of the performance of the front month? I'm looking at beans and rice (no pun intended). Shorting these 2 would qwench my appetite!

at 7:37:42 PM
That's what I do, r28c. (Have you paper traded?)

optionsplayer asks:
Hi Ken. Do you still follow your 50% rule since you have been following TOVI?

at 7:38:29 PM
Absolutely, optionsplayer! I LOVE watching those daily, weekly, and monthly 50% retracement targets get hit over, and over, and over . . . .

Howard - Austin Texas asks:
Ken, Do you see a head and shoulders formation on the Canadian dollar and do you feel that it is ready to go down and the US $ up ? I recently started a subscription to TOVI and like it, especially the short and long term bias reports. Thanks for all your help !!

at 7:40:31 PM
Yes, Howard, that's a H-and-S top formation on the Canadian $ daily chart. And TOVI agrees: It's Long-Term bias is DOWN (and 17 months).

Eric in Fort Worth asks:
I'm not yet familiar with how TOVI works, and am wondering if it ever overrides trading, say, a 1-2-3 formation? In other words, do the basic TWMPPM principles still fully apply? Thanks.

at 7:41:09 PM
Yes, Eric, and I use TOVI to CONFIRM them. Great question. Thanks.

The Jack of Trades asks:
Hello Ken, it's the Jack of Trades (from Fayetteville, Georgia) here, remember me? It's been a little while--had to sit the sidelines for a bit, but it's been awesome seeing the markets shape up exactly as you teach they do--these principles are timeless! I'm excited to learn more about TOVI as well, because it looks to be the real deal! How about Soybeans being due for a FAT 50% retracement...what does TOVI say?

at 7:42:04 PM
Thanks Jack! TOVI agrees! Welcome back.

asks:
Ken, Been out of trading for a while but made money the last time I was in. Thanks for being here still. Do you still work your charts or does TOVI do everything for you now?

at 7:44:12 PM
Ken is not here. This is TOVI speaking (typing). Ken has not been around for several months now. I have taken over and handle everything (much better than he ever did). Good night.

newyachtscott asks:
I BOUGHT TWMPMM 1 3-4 YEARS AGO AND HAVE STRUGGLED THROUGH MULTIPLE TRADES, AND HAVE STILL SOMEHOW MAINTAINED MY MARGIN ACCOUNT AT ABOUT THE SAME VALUE. I AM ALSO A TOVI SUBSCRIBER. WHAT OTHER COURSE WOULD YOU RECOMMEND TO ASSIST ME IN BEING MORE PRODUCTIVE?

at 7:45:35 PM
Paper trade those TOVI strategies, newyachtscott, and see how that affects your productivity. Thanks.

lost in space asks:
ken, i've traded futures for 2 years. got back into stocks and realised 51% increase last year but this is not enough. i signed up for tovi today, and am wondering if i will have to go back to "school"?

at 7:46:26 PM
Yes, but it's fun, lost in space. (And it's much, much easier than it seems at first . . . .)

CT Bob asks:
Ken: (from Connecticut) I was interested in your comment that you do not pyramid. However, our TWMPMM course had some very profitable examples of pyramid strategies. Do you now think that pyramiding is just too risky and that with TOVI and increased option trading you don't need the additional risk of pyramiding? CT Bob

at 7:48:15 PM
That's part of the answer, CT Bob, but there's also personal preference involved too. I simply prefer to form a "true" pyramid (with a broad base) rather than an "inverted" pyramid with a narrow, pointed base. It just feels stronger to me. Thanks.

Tre-Tre from Toronto, Ontario Canada asks:
Ken I have all of your great courses I have my own short term method and made $300 of of the OJ slide in 3 weeks and $800 in hogs latest rise. I'm being patient but dying inside of excitement for the OJ move to start. I've learned to always believe the charts!

at 7:49:12 PM
You've learned a LOT, Tre-Tre!

highpockets asks:
HI Ken, I am hoping you can answer a qustion for me. Does it make any didderence if one uses a broker in the U.S., while living in Canada, or is it better to stick with a broker in ones own country. Thanks. highpockets from North of Sixth. Man it's cold up here.

at 7:50:29 PM
When you find a broker you respect (and who respects you), I don't think it matters WHERE he or she resides! Thanks (and stay warm)!

Lorraine asks:
Lorraine from Oahu Hi Ken Wondering if you see gold going bullish again soon? This is an election year so maybe people are staying in the stock market?

at 7:52:14 PM
Was that a FUNDAMENTAL comment you just made, Lorraine?! TOVI's Short-Term Rankings just listed Gold on the first day of a Moderate uptrend (but maintains a Long-Term DOWN bias). Thanks.

DM HydroPower asks:
Ken, I was thinking of buying "How to make the stock market make money for you" from Four Star Books, but I'm curious how much relevance it has to the commodity market? I assume it has some, otherwise it would not be on your list! Any insight here? I'm itchin' to compliment my TWMPMM and GAB courses.

at 7:53:12 PM
You'll LOVE Ted Warren and his story (and especially the last four chapters on commodities)! Trust me. If you don't like it, we'll refund your money. Thanks.

asks:
Ken: Based on TOVI. . . In many markets, the highest rated options are in-the-money and far out in time. I have noticed this in several markets but most notably in Coffee. The first 10 Coffee reccomendations (value factor search) are all Sept 05 Dec 05 which are 5 to 10 points in the money. I would love to buy any of these but there are none for sale. In Sugar, May thru Oct 2005 5.50 and 6.00 are highest rated and have no open interest or volume. I have been watching Coffee closely for more than a month and I am sure (per TOVI) there has been ZERO open interest and ZERO volume on that first page. Does that mean that there are no sales taking place? isn't open interest a measure of the # of contracts in existance? Surely some of the other TOVI followers have tried to buy Dec 05 Coffee calls. What is the farthest out Coffee option you have bought recently or heard of being bought? Sorry about the length of my querry. Thank you for these chats. Ron

at 7:58:17 PM
You're welcome, Ron. Yes, zero Volume and zero Open Interest mean that that option does not yet exist. It DOES mean, however, that the Exchange believes you'll find a seller of that option at that price. So do NOT be discouraged when you see zeros under O.I. and/or Volume. This is where a good broker comes to your service. S/He will get a bid/ask from the Floor and begin WORKING your order. And after all, that's what commodity futures and options trading is all about. Great question. (Also realize that you can do a "Maximum Premium Search" and insert YOUR budget to purchase an option. Just because it may not be the highest listed, doesn't mean it has no value. Thanks.

uno asks:
Do you think an older person can use TOVI as well as the young? Is it a hard course and how long does it last?

at 7:59:46 PM
I do, uno! TOVI is a TOOL that may look daunting at first, but turns out to be very simple to use. (Be careful, though, TOVI will grow on you!)

Canuck asks:
Hey Ken, if I'm understanding the color changes in TOVI's Trade Tracker, the idea is that when they turn red it's time to bail. I purchased a June Yen put @25 pts ($312.50) when TOVI listed it in black, soon it was red and dropped to 8 pts. Since I'm new to TOVI I stuck with the old plan (waiting for it to do it's 50% retracement). It did it (just like you taught us) and stalled just below the 50% and I liquidated @92 pts ($1162.50) and it's started to move back up --69 pts today. The old way I profited $850.00 and if I'd followed TOVI's advice I'd have had a loss. I don't understand!?!? Does this mean I should dump my July OJ 75 calls that just turned red a few minutes before the chat started????

at 8:02:19 PM
Great question, Canuck. When TOVI turns an option red, I liquidate that option for its remaining value and then REPLACE it with a newly chosen one. In other words, TOVI doesn't tell me to EXIT that market because the option turned red; just dump that red option and replace it with a black one! Thanks!

cammann9 asks:
Ken, I went long May Sugar at 6.22 using the neutral to moderate TOVI ranking... I'll let you know how I make out. Thanks for everything!

at 8:02:49 PM
Yes, please keep us posted. Good night!

simonfromoverthepond asks:
Birmingham, England - Ken, I admit it. I am stuck in the old ways of buying options too soon!! I know I should trust TOVI more but my brain keeps saying I might miss bargains...Got any quick cures? P.S. Thanks for all you do for us traders!!

at 8:03:47 PM
You're welcome, Simon! Yes, this helped me: I got tired of seeing my "bargain" options expire worthless. That cured me!

Bonita Joe asks:
Ken, TOVI has really helped. I started buying CALLS in Sugar using TOVI, even though it was in a moderate down trend. I have kept on buying and making some real great returns even though it isn't in a "strong" mode yet. So far I think it helps me be a wiser contrarian. I usually wouldn't have bought ANY of the CALLS that I have. Also, bought a handful of cocoa PUTS today. Thanks Ken! Bonita Joe

at 8:04:54 PM
Thank YOU, Bonita Joe. You said what I've been trying to convey here this evening much better than I've been able to!

ears asks:
ears from oregon Ken, i've let myself get rusty on TWMPMM's I and II and would like to know which new course to take now that i want to get back into paper trading-tks for al you do

at 8:06:02 PM
Call a Course Counselor and ask about the GAB Course. Then take the TOVI Tour and sign on for the free two-week trial! Welcome back!

FIRE asks:
Hello Ken I'm still hanging on to a corn call option after about a $5000 gain from earlier trades. do you see 360 as a reasonable point of sale or resistance for this last option. I had a fun fall and winter trading corn and bean oil.

at 8:07:33 PM
Congratulations, FIRE. TOVI's upside target in Corn is 349.97, so I'd trail a close (silent) stop after that's surpassed. Thanks!

bill asks:
Hi,Ken Trading has it's ups & down's and I'vehad my share of downs,but I don't stay down too long. Last year I took PROFIT in SUGAR of $15,000.00 that made most of my money back. I'm short Australian Dollars now as TOVI is looking better. Thanks and keep up the good work.

at 8:08:13 PM
Thanks Bill!

aircap asks:
Thanks Ken, this has been time well spent.

at 8:08:47 PM
Glad you joined us too!

Well that's it for another month. Check out my favorite web sites: www.tovionline.com (Have you taken my personal tour yet?) ; www.uschartco.com ; www.fourstarbooks.com ; www.historictrees.org ; www.billoreilly.com ; www.wildlifeimages.org ; www.salestax.org (Let's abolish the IRS!); www.LP.org (Take The World's Smallest Political Quiz and see where you stand politically). My next chat will be Tuesday, April 13th (The next TOVI Chat is Tuesday, April 6th!). As always: Use these newfound powers only for Good. Good night, God bless, and watch where you step!

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