Ken Roberts Chat

Here I am with Wink Martindale, the legendary game show host.

I can't believe who I quoted at last night's Chat . . . !

Well, Jim Rogers and his new best-selling book HOT COMMODITIES was a hot topic at last night's Chat. (Better get on board and get your copy now!)

Special Note: When you read what Jim Rogers
has to say about technical analysis and trading, keep this in mind: One of the largest (if not THE largest) Commodity Trading Advisors who manages over $10 BILLION in client assets and has an enviable track record makes its trading decisions using technical analysis! (Jim Rogers HAS to know this, and so I'm surprised at what he says in his book . . . .)

Here's how "bamajim" covers his commissions! 6:12

Ever feel like a "Scared Little Chicken" too? See 6:17

You, Jim Rogers, and I all agree on Sugar. Now what? See "karlgary" at 6:22

"Tracy" has a secret to becoming "much calmer and more patient": 6:31

I can't believe I quoted Paris Hilton . . . ! See "Toronto Bob" at 6:43

Do you ever feel "flat" as "Jan" does? Try the SIX C's! 6:48

"Rob Boyer"'s not bored: He's made $24,000 in lumber so far: 6:53

"KG" advises 'Everyone to test this strategy"! 7:16

So does "LongGone" at 7:17

I commented that commodity jokes are few and far between, but "Bando57" had a good one! 7:18

How did YOU like last week's format on our TOVI TECHNICAL Chat? I've received lots of favorable feedback. See the TOVI Chat Archives here.

Until Next Time,

NOTE: If you no longer wish to be notified of our chats, please go to chat.kenroberts.net, scroll down the page, enter your e-mail address in the box provided, and then click the "Remove" button located below the box. If you would like to report a change in your e-mail address and continue receiving notification of our chats, simply delete your old address as outlined above, and then enter your new address.

Let's Talk Trading (tm) with Ken Roberts
from February 8, 2005

Return to archives page

As we begin this evenings session, let me state the reason I conduct these monthly chats: to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and pick the brain of a successful, long-time, real-money trader. Its not the highest and best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your Course materials. Thats what my Course Counselors are here for... Now is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics youre learning and to prepare you for what to expect once youre out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun along those lines, so much better. Alright... Ive got a Davidoff Double R fired up, heres our platter of a freshly purchased assortment of cookies (from The Chocolate Affair restaurant and dessertery next door to our office building), the coffees poured, so lets talk commodities! NOTE!!! When commenting on one of my Courses, please identify WHICH ONE. Also, when relating trading experiences and/or results, please give details: Futures contracts, options, options AND futures, etc. This helps others follow along and learn from your experience too.

Dan C asks:
Silver has been down recently. Long-term, what is your opinion of silver?

at 6:07:45 PM
Hi Dan C! Looking at Silver's Monthly chart, there's only one conclusion to make: Look l-o-n-g! Then look at Silver's Weekly chart: Looks like prices just made a 50% retracement and should be headed UP again. (When prices break over that double top on the Weekly, look out above!) Now turn to Silver's Active Futures Month (March) and decide upon an entry strategy (the Hi-Lo Breakout Strategy would work here . . . .). THAT's my opinion of Silver! Thanks.

JimC asks:
JimC in Houston, TX Ken, I've read Jim Rogers' book, Hot Commodities. Just to let other course members know, he also has an interview in the book, Market Wizards which was conducted in April 1988. Very Informative. Thanks for all you do for us.

at 6:10:56 PM
Thanks JimC! (Were you already familiar with A LOT of what Jim Rogers said in his new book. Hmmmm . . . where have I heard all that before . . . let me think now . . . .) That Jim Rogers interview in Market Wizards is a good one BUT --- Market Wizards is out of print forever. The NEW Market Wizards does NOT have a Jim Rogers interview, so this very moment our request sits with the publisher to reprint that interview from the original Market Wizards book and include it with all orders of The NEW Market Wizards ordered through Four Star Books. Thanks for joining us this evening!

linda asks:
I don't have a specific question. I am trying to view other questions and answers.

at 6:11:58 PM
Welcome aboard Linda! Sit back, relax, and jump in later if you like!

bamajim asks:
I made my first real moey trade on 1/18/05.Purchase 1 Wheat 310 put for $900. I saved the commission by offering a lower bid. Thanks for all you and your staff provide.

at 6:12:45 PM
Good goin' bamajim! Love that thinking . . . .

sookdude asks:
Hi Ken.. I am a brand new student to your program and what are some of the hot commodities you would recommend at this time.

at 6:13:39 PM
Welcome sookdude! Go to Ken's Chart Book --- you'll find them all right there (with my notes included).

scaredlittlechicken asks:
I know ya'll are all pro's, but i'm not so, how do you tell what is a good option to trade? by the trend or what?

at 6:17:22 PM
Don't be scared, little chicken! Take it one step at a time. Don't let your mind tell you you're going to miss everything and that you have to rush into anything. Anyone who's a "pro" at this doesn't listen to that kind of thinking (that we're all prone to) anymore. This business is mostly a MENTAL business . . . . So pick ONE trading strategy and paper trade every market it gives a "go" signal to. And, as always, use my Course Counselors for encouragement and support --- they're the greatest!

karlgary asks:
Hi Ken I have read jim rodgers new book and he seems to dislike technical trading any comment ken

at 6:22:40 PM
Yes, I cringe every time I see him denounce technical trading. Of course fundamentals apply to all markets all the time (that's why any market's price is what it is), but no one can know every fundamental that applies to any given market (not even Jim Rogers!). And did you notice: When Jim Rogers wants to show you how low sugar is historically, he shows us a sugar CHART (pg. 186)! Okay, so you, Jim Rogers, and I all agree that sugar's historically low and we should be looking to trade it long. Now all we have to do is decide upon an entry strategy. (Right now, in Sugar, looking at Sugar's Active Futures Month of March, that would be the Hi-Lo Breakout Strategy. Thanks karlgary!

fix and fly paul asks:
Ken: Fix and fly paul here. You often speak of having an exit strategy when you go into an option or futures contract. HELP!!! How do I find the exit strategy that works for me. Risk? percentage of gain/loss? Certain ponits on the Chart? Help me drink the coffee, not just pour it.

at 6:27:49 PM
Hi fix and fly paul (You're not an A/P mechanic are you?)! I can HELP you drink the coffee, but I cannot drink it for you, so here's how to learn what you're seeking: Paper trade several ENTRY strategies AND several EXIT strategies. I promise: ONE of each will appeal to you and your trading termperament more than the others. You'll find both ENTRY and EXIT strategies included in the Ken Roberts Members Center. Great question. Let us know your results. Thanks!

Dan C asks:
Dan C. again (Detroit, MI) is coffee reaching near peak? How much higher can it go?

at 6:29:52 PM
Look back at Coffee's Monthly Chart for 1997. That high was 318 and I'll never forget it (and hope to see it again). (Also see Jim Rogers' Coffee CHART (!) on page 197.)

Tracy asks:
Hi Ken, Just wanted to say I ordered a Vernon Howard book from Four Star Books (Supermind) and it's brilliant! These things have EVERYTHING to do with trading and other aspects of life. I have noticed that since I have been reading him, I've been much calmer and more patient (and more successful I might add) with trades. Thank you!

at 6:31:28 PM
Thanks for that, Tracy! (Is everyone listening?) Now try Dr. Hawkins' Power vs. Force text and CD Workshop set. THEN let us know how that affects your trading too. Thanks again.

bookworm asks:
hi Ken! been a member since 1999.then learned later about options,my question is have you ever used a strangle or a saddle in your trading? signed a upstate new yorker.

at 6:33:37 PM
No bookworm, but I will be soon (as soon as the brand new TOVI Option Writing Module goes online where we can WRITE covered options). Thanks!

ATTENTION: Does anyone have any good commodity jokes (they seem to be few and far between . . . .) Let's have 'em!

lise asks:
Hi Ken! What would you suggest a new student do after reading your manual (still in the 2 week trial)? Lise from Gilead, Maine

at 6:40:24 PM
Start paper trading, lise! (See the "Get Going!" pdf in the Members Center and follow the nine steps.) And, as always, call one of my Course Counselors whenever you need. Thanks! And stay in touch!

Toronto Bob asks:
Yes I read "Hot Commodities" and maybe its just me, but, what's all the excitement about? Yes its well written and full of amazing facts which may or may not come about. Has it changed Ken's trading habits? As I understand things, we attempt to make money as charts move up or down. It could have conceivably been titled "Cold Commodities" and and been as exciting. Even Jim admits, markets do not go in straight lines, there will be retracements, so what,s new?

at 6:43:02 PM
We're at the beginning of what could be a 15-year bull market, Toronto Bob. (Remember the bull market in stocks in the 1990s?) As Paris Hilton would say, "That's hot!"

dave asks:
Hi Ken: I bought several July 680 Soybean calls back in December. They're not doing so well. . . Do you think things will change?

at 6:45:27 PM
Beans are in a downtrend now, dave, but they've gotta turn around and head UP. Your July calls have plenty of time remaining, so you might stay on board anticipating the turnaround. YES, "things will change;" but no one knows exactly when. (Do you have TOVI? If so, let TOVI track your options to be sure they don't turn red . . . .)

Jan asks:
I was so anxious to get going in your program and now i've lost all interest. Any idea what's going on here?

at 6:48:52 PM
(Jan: Watch this . . . .)

fatback asks:
man, life is fine in N/Carolina....just got in from coon hunting, and now gonna do the 3 c's....commodities, charts and chat!!!!..Ken, I am a K Roberts course man since 99....and am a believer in the worlds greatest business....i am working daily on a short term trading stategy using moving averages....and its working well...but consolidation,(channels) make it hard to stay the trade...but i am still working...thanks for all u have done for me!!!!!! U the Bomb!!!

at 6:51:05 PM
You gotta make that the SIX c's, fatback: Commodities, Charts, Chat, Cookies, Cigars, and Coffee! Life doesn't get any better than that! Are you using OPTIONS on your short-term trading strategy, fatback? That'll give you staying power through those consolidations and retracements. Keep us posted. YOU da man!

ATTENTION JAN: You need to do what "fatback"'s doing: the SIX c's Program . . . .

Rob Boyer asks:
Hey Ken I went long jan lumber @ 320 and just let it ride without internal finacing and was up $34,000 futures is alive and well. i just did what you taught us in the world's greatest bussiness, lumber is still high and is shorting it is still an option. Rob B from Idaho!!

at 6:53:53 PM
Cheer up, Rob, snap out of it! Sure, shorting Lumber will be a strategy, but enjoy that UP-move as long as you can! Good goin'! (Hey, Idaho's just the next state over from Oregon, so come on by and say "Hi!")

HEY JAN! Are you still listening?

cptnneuro asks:
Hi Ken! I'm new to the program as well. In your course material, you say to purchase options as close to the money as you can afford. Why is that? It seems great gains can be made on options with strike prices further out?

at 6:55:41 PM
Yes they can, Captain, but that's probably the exception rather than the rule. It's "safer" closer to the money. BUT do experiment. (And please let us know your results!) Thanks!

luv2trade asks:
Hi, thank you for mailing me your brochure. You are probably the only reason novices even THINK about commodities. (And novices includes many people who have traded stocks for years.) Will you be doing any live seminars or workshops or sponsoring any with your Course Counselors?

at 7:01:20 PM
Thanks luv2trade! Yes, I know we'll be doing some traveling and seminars, but nothing scheduled firmly yet. (And don't forget our "Day with a WGB Counselor" (read about this in the Members Center).

Buck Buchanan asks:
I see the questions but I don't hear your voice - several months ago I got into this chat and Ken I heard your voice - is this a mistake?

at 7:02:46 PM
Can you hear me now, Buck?! Buck! Buck! Are you there . . . ? Say somethin' Buck!

Dale asks:
What is your best quick start schedule of publications to study to get a handle on this business.

at 7:04:19 PM
Well, of course, my WGB Manual is the place to begin. Then start paper trading --- that's where your education really begins. (And I think you'll enjoy and benefit from the new Jim Rogers' book, HOT COMMODITIES). Thanks Dale, and please stay in touch.

Gary asks:
Gary (Whippany, NJ) Who is Jim Rogers?

at 7:05:04 PM
Hang on Gary . . .

SuperStar Invester

Hot Commodities:
How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market
By Jim Rogers
Hardcover
265 pages,

~~$25.95 +~~ ~~s&h~~

Special until
February 11, 2005
$21.95 + s&h

I know that Jim Rogers and Hot Commodities will be a hot topic at our Let's Talk Trading Chat next week, so do your homework and be prepared!

As soon as I heard about this great new book, I had Donna order it for Four Star Books. We quickly sold out of our first order, but Donna got right on it and our second order has now come in!

Get your copy now! It’s still not up on the Four Star Web site yet, so call Donna or Patti now at 800-350-2350.

Let me remind you about Jim Rogers. He co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and then “retired” at age thirty-seven. Since then, he has become a media pundit, a sometime professor at Columbia University, and a ‘round-the-world traveler. [ www.jimrogers.com]

Rogers has written several financial books, but this is his first to offer investment advice. And what is he encouraging people to invest in?

Commodities!

The first line in his new book is “Commodities get no respect.”

He then goes on to say “A new bull market is under way, and it is in commodities...”

“And that is why I am of the opinion that the 2004 study from the Yale School of Management’s Center for International Finance, 'Fact and Fantasies About Commodity Futures,' is a truly revolutionary document."

[From that study:]

— Since 1959, commodities futures have produced better annual returns than stocks and outperformed bonds even more. Commodities have also had less risk than stocks and bonds, as well as better returns. [!!!]

— The volatility of the returns of commodities futures for a 43-year period was “slightly below” the volatility of the S&P 500 for the same period. [!!!]

— The returns of commodities futures examined in the study were “triple” the returns for stocks in companies that produced those same commodities [!!!]

Get your copy now! This is MUST reading for all traders! I know there will be lots of discussion about this in our monthly Let’s Talk Trading Chats...

You’ll love Rogers’ take on why commodities are THE hot market right now — and for the next decade! And his book is filled with basic information on commodity trading, current market analysis, the global picture, and encouragement to traders old and new.

Hot Commodities is hot! And now it’s at Four Star! Get a copy and find out why Jim Rogers says:

“Commodities are so pervasive that, in my view you really cannot be a successsful investor in stocks, bonds, or currencies without understanding them... Commodities belong in every truly diversified portfolio... I believe that investing in commodities will represent an enormous opportunity for the next decade or so.”

Everybody's talking Hot Commodities! So get your copy now! Read it for yourself and you’ll know why I’m so enthusiastic about this book. Then let me know what you think. We'll discuss it at next week's Let's Talk Trading Chat (Tuesday, February 8th, 6:pm Pacific Time at http://www.kenroberts.com).

Remember to order Hot Commodities
before February 11, 2005
for ONLY $21.95

Put a in your shopping cart.
Call Donna or Patti at
800-350-2350, or from Alaska, Hawaii,
and Canada dial 541-955-2742.
(8:30am to 5pm Pacific Time, M-F).
Hot Commodities is so new at Four Star,
we don't even have it online yet!

richk asks:
New Haven, CT. Dear Ken, I'm excited to be reading the Jim Rogers book at your suggestion. His whole analysis of the Coffee market is fascinating. What's especially new to me are Futures Indexes, such as the ones Jim Rogers founded. I've also noticed as relatively new in USCharts On-Line the "Value Futures", which I presume is some kind of Index? Do you ever trade or invest in these? Is Rogers Index like a Mutual Fund that a person would invest into on a longer term basis, given his whole prediction that Commodities are Bullish (from the Intro)? Any thoughts, pros, cons on Indexes? Not that I don't have a full plate already with all the trading strategies you do graciously provide, but just curious about Indexes. Thanks!

at 7:13:22 PM
Thanks richk! Yes, an "Index" is traded just as any other commodity is, except that an Index is a pot full of money --- NOT a physical commodity at all. There's the U.S. Dollar Index, the S&P Index, the DOW Index, and the Value Line Index, for example. I'm really not clear on what Jim Rogers has now in the way of funds --- mutual funds and/or commodity pools. I do know that he began the Quantum Fund with George Soros many years ago, but I don't think he's involved with that any longer. As I learn more, I'll keep you posted. Thanks!

Texas TOVI asks:
Ken, I recently completed your book "A Rich Man's Secret" that was a very good book I plan to write very positive comments on the Amazon site. I hope others have had the opportunity to read this book it provides several things to think about as you expand your mind outside your mental comfort zone.

at 7:14:36 PM
Thanks Texas TOVI! How y'all doin'? Thanks for the kind words, and I DO appreciate those reviews on amazon.com AND barnesandnoble.com. I read them all! Thanks again.

junkman asks:
Hi Ken, this is my 2nd day of paper trading. i chose the strong 1 strategy. is this the best one to start with?

at 7:15:29 PM
Sure, junkman, but try them ALL (at YOUR own pace). Now stay tuned for this next comment . . . .

KG asks:
Ken, The S1 strategy is amazing. I have papertraded every market since the first of December 2004 that gave this signal (and their has been a bunch of them) and all of them have profited except two. I am using futures instead of options but you must protect your profits along the way. Everyone must test this strategy. Thanks

at 7:16:19 PM
Thanks KG --- you're very generous!

LongGone asks:
Hi Ken, I just wanted to say I've been papertrading the various strategies and have found Strong1 to be absolutely wonderful! So much so that I have been real money trading it since December, making about $250 per week. When I've entered an option trade and the market has gone into a channel, I use the option as my protection and will go long or short against it and trade within the channel -- and have done well that way.

at 7:17:16 PM
Good goin', LongGone! I love your trading technique! Thanks!

Bando57 asks:
Okay I will tell a story..my wife and I were at a party and there was a rather large woman at the party that I know trades commodities and was in pork bellies. When I asked her how her pork bellies were doing, my wife sputtered in her drink and apologized for my rudeness. When we explained to her why I asked the question she nearly fainted from embarrassment

at 7:18:41 PM
(I sure wish I had been a fly on that wall, Bando57!)

Chris E asks:
Ken, any chance you might ditch the cowboy hat and put on a touque and do a tour of the great white north to visit all of us hosers up here eh? Lots of beers and bacon!

at 7:20:01 PM
Wait a minute, Chris, I've gotta look up all these new words I've never heard before . . . .

northerntracker asks:
As a technical trader do you ever use other indicators (such as moving averages, MACD, etc.) with your charts? Are they at all effective?

at 7:20:59 PM
No, northerntracker, I use nothing else (and never had any consistent success with those technical indicators).

Dale asks:
As a new trader should I stick only to options?

at 7:23:01 PM
Yes, Dale, BEGIN with options (because they limit your risk to the amount you paid) and then venture into futures contracts (which carry UNlimited risk) as YOU see fit . . . . Thanks for joining us this evening.

commodities for life! asks:
hey ken and crew! just wanted to say i'm in my first big real trades which include: us dollar, swiss frank, euro currency and cotton.I've had some success on paper trades now i'm waiting for my first real money strike! thx.

at 7:23:29 PM
Thank YOU, c-for-life! Keep us posted . . . .

powerplay asks:
Also Ken, early in 2004 you were recommending Coffee Calls. Well, on August 30, 2004, I bought a March 05 90-100 call spread for about $400 and sold it last week for $3,500. I decided not to wait to expiration (at the end of this week) since I was happy with the profit and unsure if Coffee would hold above 100 (which obviously it did) Thanks for the help.

at 7:24:39 PM
Thank YOU powerplay. You did it! Congratulations . . . .

medictrader asks:
Hi Ken Medictrader from Canada here. Just started your program and doing some paper trading watching the June Canadian Dollar 84 put. Nice 123 top formed and broke down through the #2 on Jan 28. Sure like the look of my fictional trend tracker account. The other day an analyst was saying that he believed for several reasons that it was going to go to 77 cents... Well heck, the chart was telling me that it may head down to 78 cents (50% retracement) a month ago when I looked at it. Also received my copy of Hot Commodities yesterday.

at 7:25:23 PM
Hey Doc! Good goin'! Thanks!

onepolyglot asks:
Reading page 93 of Hot Commodities; the author is against technical trading and all for fundamentals......... What is your take?

at 7:28:59 PM
(See "karlgary" at 6:22) And as Jim Rogers' puts it on page 93: "If you are intrigued by such techniques and theories, then by all means explore them. But that is not how I approach investing in commodities, or any other mearkets, as you may have gathered." And what I'll ask Jim Rogers when and if I ever meet him is, "So what's your entry signal on your fundamental analysis?" I HAVE to have technical signals to enter my trades and just can't imagine how to trade otherwise . . . .

fix and fly paul asks:
Ken: Yes I'm an A&P mechanic, an IA and a private pilot to boot.

at 7:30:07 PM
Thanks fix and fly paul! I'm an old Mooney 201LM pilot myself . . . . (Sometime I'll tell you the story of how I landed it on the I-10 in Kerrville, Texas . . . .)

Mike in AC asks:
I saw Jim Rogers on CNBC today touting the Hot Commodities book. When are you going to go on that show Ken? Saw you on ABC a while back, you are due for another TV appearance...

at 7:31:42 PM
Thanks Mike! Yes, I love those radio and tv spots, but tell me: How long was Jim's interview today on CNBC? About four minutes I'll bet . . . That's just too short a time to go all the way to New York for . . . . How'd he do, by the way?

Hydro1 asks:
Ken - I have had a chance to read Jim Rogers new book Hot Commodities, and found it quite informative and interesting. We cant deny that supply and demand is the engine to moving the markets, but I do wonder if he has met you or people on this chat when he says he has never known anyone who has gotten rich off technical analysis. Personally, I do consider fundamentals, but it does not execute a trade. It goes something like this: Look at the charts for a technical opportunity while gathering reliable fundamental data to anticipate a direction, wait for a chart formation to enter, have TOVI confirm your entry, and execute the trade. To not at least consider reliable fundamental data decreases your odds in my opinion. Just make sure it does not execute your trade let the technical take care of that.

at 7:33:39 PM
My thoughts exactly Hydro1! I believe ALL fundamentals are reflected in the charts. (Also note that Jim has to say "I've known FEW people who have gotten rich off technical analysis . . . .")

TOVIJUNKIE asks:
Hi Ken and crew,I always look at Ken's chart book to double check my chart formations,the best tool ever! I seem to make the mistake of finding much smaller formations.Any advice on finding the big picture easier? Also in your opinion does it benefit the new trader to take advantage of the education offered through my broker ie;webinars,seminars and such or do you think too much info from too many sources is a bad thing? As always thanks much for all you and your team do for all of us TOVIJUNKIE

at 7:36:22 PM
Thanks TOVIJUNKIE (good to "see" you again!). Try looking first at your MONTHLY charts, determine that market's direction, then go straight to that market's Active Futures Contract DAILY chart and pick an entry technique. This keeps the BIG PICTURE in mind. I'd stay clear of all that "great advice" through your broker, but let's put this question to everyone else online with us this evening . . . . How 'bout it? Any experiences?

Alan asks:
I am one month studying the business and excited, but I'm still a little intimidated because I really feel lost and a little dumb. One of your counselors told me just to hang in and the light will dawn. Is there really significant profit in this business?

at 7:37:37 PM
Read through this Chat Archives after we end this evening, Alan, and see how others are doing. My Course Counselors advised you well! It just keeps getting better and better! Thanks.

raider asks:
Hi Ken. I'm excited to participate in your session for the first time. Your initial TWWPMM guide seemed to stress the 1-2-3 Top or Bottom as the key entry point in any market; this seemed to concentrate on trend reversals. After signing up to your new website just a few weeks ago, I was a little surprised at the attention given to following trends. It would appear that it is easier to be successful following trends than hitting an actual reversal point - and I have gotten burned a few times following the 1-2-3 formation. So should I be placing greater concentration on trends?

at 7:38:44 PM
Yes, raider, that's where we've "evolved" and I believe you'll like our new strategies. Welcome aboard!

bamajim asks:
This is for all nervous members. I have been an on/off member with Ken's courses for several years. If you paper trade long enough, you just know it is time to get started when you tire of only paper profits.

at 7:39:35 PM
Thanks bamajim! Yes, you'll know it's time to trade real money when you find yourself saying "I'm tired of being right and not making any money on it" A LOT!

Joel asks:
Ken, when you purchase options, do you determine the formation (and then confirm trend with TOVI) on the front month only, regardless of what the actual contract month you trade is showing? Also, what if that further out month has low volume or open interest? Does that matter, since by the time your option "matures" that month will be closer - if not actually be - the front month?

at 7:41:04 PM
Everything you say here is correct, Joel, except that instead of "on the front month only," use the Active Futures Contract daily chart (listed on the TOVI Trend Tracker). Thanks!

anton asks:
Hi Ken I am new to Options just one simple but confusing question for now. Scenario: Say for instance I look at the Canola March futures contract and decide to purchase an Option for the Canola July timeframe. Q: Do I even need to look at the July chart while there is still an active preceding period chart like the March or May chart? Thank you for the clarification.

at 7:42:16 PM
Yes, only watch the Active Futures Contract chart (even though you're trading a farther-out option or futures contract). Good question.

Utah Matt asks:
Ken Thanks for bring this commodity knowledge to the masses! I started about 3 yrs ago with your other system and have reconnected with TOVI and the new tools. With this knowledge I feel confident that no matter what Im doing commodities are always an option :) !

at 7:42:47 PM
Good one, Utah Matt! Stay the Course (and stay in touch)! Thanks!

ML asks:
What exit strategy do YOU personally use the most to get you out of losing trades?

at 7:44:56 PM
In options, I hang on till the end (they expire) unless TOVI turns any of them RED, in which case I replace them. In futures, I rarely bail out. But if I do, I'd have to say it's when the Dynamic Trend Change Point is hit.

scuba asks:
Ken, My nerves are getting jittery knowing coffee is on a major bull run and the bulls behind is all I can see from here! How can I get aboard this baby...Option month...strike... etc for min $$$,S Scuba

at 7:50:06 PM
You just missed entering Coffee using our Hi-Lo Breakout Strategy by two days, scuba. But my concern is, were you aware of this? As we said earlier, I can't DRINK the Coffee for you. So I certainly don't want to push you into something you really don't understand. We ALL were "jittery" when first beginning to trade, so that's completly normal. I just want YOU to call YOUR OWN trading shots. And also be aware that our minds will always tell us we're missing the boat, when in fact there are plenty of boats to come! Hope this helps. (And always use my Course Counselors for support too.)

karlgary asks:
ken Im a new student butlearning fast,(well I hope I am) but I'm still a little confused as to the best way to spot whether a chosen option is a good bargain. When there are so many options to chose from am I right in thinking one has to check the highs and lows and recent prices of that particular option? Hope this is not a silly question! What do you suggest is best and the correct way?

at 7:52:35 PM
Not a silly question at all, karlgary. Yes, I used to check the highs and lows and recent prices of potential options too, but not any more --- now there's TOVI!!! Hooray! (Have you taken the TOVI Tour at www.tovitour.com yet?)

prodigalson asks:
What's your favorite cigar?

at 7:53:15 PM
A Cuban Hoyo de Monterrey Double Corona! Magnifico!

LongGone asks:
Hello again... When you've identified the market you want to enter (for me it's following Strong1) - do you enter the next morning with a market order or do you set a price on that particular option? If so, can you give us an idea how you determine that price since we're shooting for options that are as close to "in the money" as we can afford, rather than bargain shopping. Thanks so much for all you do for us aspiring traders!

at 7:55:02 PM
I ALWAYS place a LIMIT order LongGone --- never a "Market Order". And yes, you can always "play" with the market a little and bid less than the listed price, but I've found you'll typically not save a BUNCH of money this way, since the market's already moving.

Chris asks:
Hello Ken & Team, Since I was first introduced to you and commodities back in 2001 I have only dabled in trading commodities. Yet, I have always thought of commodity trading as a way out of the rat race (9 to 5). The probelm that I face is not with commidities at all; it is with myself. Staying consistent always seems to be a challenge. Any thoughts on how to stay plugged in and focused on trading?

at 7:56:34 PM
Yes, as we've said earlier this evening, trading's a MENTAL exercise. Peruse all our resources at Four Star Books (that's EXACTLY why I started Four Star!), but more than this, paper trade, paper trade, paper trade . . . .

Mike in AC asks:
Jim Rogers has money, like the cattle rancher you have spoken about. He buys and rolls it over. Seemed to like sugar for fundamental reasons on the CNBC interview today.

at 7:57:09 PM
Thanks Mike (where's AC?)! How long was that interview on CNBC today?

Mike in AC asks:
Jim Rogers also mentioned how China needs oil, sugar and fundamentally they buy alot of soybeans and probably silver, and all commodities. China is a big growing economy -- lumber too for housing and business expansion.....

at 7:57:27 PM
!

LongGone asks:
In regards to TOVIJUNKIE - I think educating yourself through reading up on commodities is great, but the most money I have lost in trading was following a broker's advice, which kept me out of the market for a year and a half saving to get back in - with a promise not to listen to anyone but those charts, those patterns and the techniques you're teaching us. So far I'm ahead and achieving my weekly goals as a result.

at 7:58:05 PM
Thanks LongGone! (Did you get this TOVIJUNKIE?)

chartech asks:
Love Jims book but he sure likes the funnie mentals. I think we need to invite him to come on board. What ye think grasshopper?

at 7:58:41 PM
Good one, chartech! (Are you in our Chatroom tonight, Jim?)

Sue R. asks:
I started losing interest also, and realized I was doing the old "analysis-paralysis" thing. Very typical for women (no sexism intended!) and perfectionists. I broke it by giving myself a mythical trading account and paper trading. Nothing makes the charts more interesting than haveing even play money on the trade. and I learned more from my (many) bad trades than from the profitable ones! Every time I find myself getting to that place again, I realize I'm not makiing new trades but just reading or going over old trades. Hope this helps - happy TRADING!

at 7:59:44 PM
(Jan, are you still with us?) It DOES help, Sue R. Thank you for your words of wisdom!

scaredlittlechicken asks:
mr. roberts, were you ever on oprah winfrey, a few years ago? just asking.

at 8:00:26 PM
No, but I'd be a great guest wouldn't I?!

LongGone asks:
One last comment and I'll be quiet - You've stressed the importance of having a plan for entry as well as exit from a market. In my trades, the ones I have either lost on, or not done as well have been the ones I either strayed from the plan, or didn't plan going in very well. In retrospect I realize when my heart starts to race and I feel that "have to, gotta do it, must..." thing start happening, that's occurred during each of those trades and now when that occurs I immediately force myself to step back from the market or trade as it's a sign of haste which is a recipe for disaster. I have gone back and re-read what you've read about this and thinks it's crucial to being in this long-term.

at 8:01:01 PM
Thanks for this insight LongGone!

Joel asks:
Ken, I'm still gaining papertrading experience with TOVI, so hopefully you'll have insight on this: When TOVI indicates that the current strength rating is "Strong," but it changed from "Extreme" is that a sign that the trend my be heading for a reversal or is it just a normal fluctuation?

at 8:02:14 PM
Yes, that means the trend may be heading for a reversal, so we stick to "Moderate-to-Strong" in the S1 Strategy for that very reason. Good one! Thanks Joel!

Intrinsic asks:
Hi Ken. Just wanted to say thanks for recommending the book "Power vs. Force". I haven't "pondered" this much since "A Rich Man's Secret". What would you say is the most significant correlation this book has to the Rich Man's Secret course? Thanks (like the book, all these big words are making my brain hurt).

at 8:03:57 PM
That our ego is a dinosaur, but without it, we wouldn't be alive! (THAT puts it in perspective, doesn't it?!) (Have you tried calibrating?)

tim asks:
Ken, can you give some insight on exercising options? Advantages? Disavantages?Do you exercise options?Thanks,Tim

at 8:04:31 PM
No, I've never exercised an option, Tim, and don't know a good reason to . . . .

Mike asks:
Ken, Do you use delta techniques anymore or just charts and TOVI

at 8:04:41 PM
Just charts and TOVI!

BullsFan asks:
Hello Ken. Do you still do the option profit insurance plan? If so is it working out.

at 8:07:01 PM
No, BullsFan --- that's been replaced with TOVI's "Budgeted Options Search" feature! Wow, don't you love these computers?!

CATMAN asks:
CATMAN, QUEEN CREEK, ARIZONA, Ken, I was in Eurodollar for the year of 03 and the last three months of 02 without a move in the down direction. In 04 I was not able to enter the market because of other obligations. In 04 it moved down. When you get out, that is when it will move in your direction. Ken do you ever have a dry spell like this? Thanks for your contributions to mankind. LOVE YOU, ....CATMAN.

at 8:08:37 PM
Yes, Catman, that's part of trading . . . goes with the territory. Thanks Catman! (Did you see last month's Chat Photo with me and the cat?)

Well that's it for another month. Check out my favorite web sites: www.tovionline.com (Have you taken my personal tour yet?); www.uschartco.com ; www.fourstarbooks.com ; www.historictrees.org ; www.billoreilly.com ; www.wildlifeimages.org ; www.salestax.org (Let's abolish the IRS!); www.LP.org (Take The World's Smallest Political Quiz and see where you stand!); www.vote.com (Make your voice heard!). My next chat will be Tuesday, March 8th. As always: Use these newfound powers only for Good. Good night, God bless, and watch where you step!

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